Tolerance can help countries to achieve prosperity
Tolerance pays. This is the lesson emerging from a growing body of evidence on public attitudes toward globalisation. The responses to the 2003 Pew Global Attitudes Project, in which 38,000 people in 44 countries were interviewed, and in smaller-scale surveys done by other groups, make fascinating reading. Public support for globalisation was highest in Senegal, where90 per cent of respondents indicated that it was a good thing, while disapproval was greatest in Jordan where64 per cent registered opposition. Eighty-nine per cent of Turks thought local culture should be protected from foreign influences, while less than half of the French felt this way.
More specifically, when asked whether they supported free markets, 95 per cent of the Vietnamese interviewed said Yes, with even more favouring stronger cross-border business ties. So much for creating the New Socialist Man.
At the other end of the scale, only48 per cent of Jordanians approved of growing cross-border commerce. Nearly two-thirds of Czech respondents were willing to see large inefficient factories close, but more than three-quarters of the Indians surveyed opposed such moves. Attitudes toward international economic institutions the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organisation varied widely as well: five out of six residents of C?te d'Ivoire thought the multinational institutions were a beneficial influence, while two out of three Argentines believed they had a negative influence, perhaps with reason.
Statistically, the patterns of these responses are correlated with economic performance. That relationship is unsurprising in and of itself. What is intriguing is that the pattern of responses is independently correlated with economic performance even when adjusted for fundamentals such as the level of per capita income and inflation. The responses seem to be telling us something beyond what can be explained by the fundamentals.
Perhaps the most surprising result is that attitudes towards homosexuality are highly correlated with economically relevant phenomena such as the ability to attract foreign investment and the level of sovereign bond ratings. The cross-national divergence on this issue is enormous, with 83 per cent of Czechs and Germans supporting societal acceptance of homosexuality, more than 90 per cent of the respondents in six countries opposing it, and three governments China, Egypt and Tanzania not even permitting the question to be asked.
The statistical correlation between tolerance of homosexuality and better than expected economic performance echoes similar results obtained previously for US cities, where a higher homosexual share of the population is associated with more high-technology activity. The question is why?
In both the US and international data, there is a correlation between acceptance of homosexuality and other characteristics such as acceptance of immigrants and the absence of a desire to protect traditional culture, which in turn are correlated with improved economic performance. It could be that attitudes toward homosexuality are part of a broader package of social attitudes towards difference and change, especially change that comes from non-traditional sources.
For potential investors, domestic or foreign, particular attitudes ought therefore to sound alarms. Public xenophobia may find expression in a mild form through unhelpful official behaviour and, in the extreme, through attacks on foreign-affiliated facilities or staff. Examples range from the occasional vandalism of McDonald's outlets around the world or last year's rioting that destroyed $50m in Thai-owned property in Cambodia to targeted attacks on foreigners, which have claimed more than 30 lives in Saudi Arabia this year.
For home-grown entrepreneurs, xenophobia should not be an issue (except, perhaps, for members of ethnic minority groups), but pervasive distrust of difference may inhibit innovators whose behaviour deviates from social norms.
What would happen, therefore, if the people of countries such as India, Jordan and Russia which score poorly on the surveys' globalisation questions adopted more tolerant attitudes? The effect could be substantial: growth in foreign investment, improvements in borrowing terms, and increased risk-taking by local entrepreneurs.
Popular attitudes have real effects on economic outcomes. Tolerance affects the terms on which globalisation proceeds. The question is how it can be fostered.
The writer is senior fellow at theInstitute of International Economics
宽容有利于促进繁荣
宽容有利于经济。这是从越来越多的有关公众对全球化态度的调查结果中总结出的经验。2003年“普尤全球态度项目”(Pew Global Attitudes Project) 对44个国家的38000人进行了调查访问，其他一些组织也进行了规模较小的调查，所得到的结果耐人寻味。塞内加尔对全球化的公众支持率最高，该国90%的受访者表示全球化是好事；而约旦的反对率最高，表示反对的受访者达到64%。89%的土耳其人认为应当保护本土文化不受外国文化影响，而法国人中有同感的不到半数。
如果更进一步问及是否支持市场自由化，95%的越南受访者回答“是”，而支持进一步发展跨境贸易的受访者比率更高。培养“社会主义新人”看来成效不佳。
在调查结果的另一端，只有48%的约旦人认同跨境贸易的增长。近三分之二的捷克受访者希望关闭低效率的大型工厂，但超过四分之三的印度受访者对这种举措表示反对。人们对于国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及世贸组织等国际经济组织的态度也迥然各异：每6个科特迪瓦居民中就有5人认为国际组织发挥了良好的作用，而三分之二的阿根廷人却坚信这些组织所带来的是负面影响(或许不无道理)。
从统计数据上看，这些不同答案的分布与经济表现存在关联。这种关联就其本身而言并不出人意料。但耐人寻味的是，答案的分布与经济表现的关联具有独立性，即使按人均收入和通胀水平等基本面经济数据进行调整后也是如此。这些答案似乎正告诉我们一些无法用基本面经济数据解读的事情。
最令人惊讶的结果或许是：对于同性恋的态度与经济现象之间的关联度很高，比如吸引外资的能力以及主权债券的评级等等。在这个问题上，各国之间有着天壤之别。83%的捷克人和德国人支持社会接受同性恋，另外6个国家有90%以上的受访者反对同性恋，而中国、埃及和坦桑尼亚三国政府甚至不允许在调查中包括这个问题。
对同性恋的宽容与优于预期的经济表现之间的关联，与一些美国城市曾得出的调查结果相符。在这些高科技产业比较发达的美国城市，同性恋者占总人口比率较高。问题是，为什么会有这种关联？
从美国和整个国际情况来看，对同性恋的宽容与其他社会特征之间存在关联，比如是否愿意接纳移民和不拘泥于保护传统习俗等，而这些都分别与经济表现的提高有一定关联。原因可能是：对待同性恋的态度，是对待差异和变化的更为广泛的社会态度的一部分，特别是非传统因素所带来的变化。
有鉴于此，对于本国或者外国的潜在投资者来说，某些公众态度应当成为警示。公众的仇外情绪，可能会借助无益的官方行为以温和的方式得到宣泄，也可能走向极端，攻击与外国有关的机构和人员。例证包括：世界各地的麦当劳餐厅偶尔遭到蓄意破坏；去年在柬埔寨发生的骚乱中价值5000万美元的泰国资产被毁；今年沙特发生攻击外国人事件，导致30人死亡。
对于本国的企业家来说，仇外情绪应当不是一个问题(对于少数民族的企业家也许不是这么回事)，但对任何差异都疑虑重重的社会，有可能排斥那些离经叛道的创新家。
印度、约旦和俄罗斯等国在有关全球化问题的调查中反应不佳，如果这些国家能够采取更加宽容的态度，情况又会怎样呢？如果这样，效果将会十分显著：外来投资会获得增长，信贷状况会得到改善，本国企业家也能够承担更大的风险。
公众态度对经济成就具有切实的影响。宽容影响着全球化发展的条件。关键是如何去促成宽容。
作者是美国国际经济研究所(Institute of International Economics)高级研究员。
