China's Consumers Show Desire to Spend
LIJIANG, China -- Just outside this historic city in southwestern China stand rows of new, four-bedroom townhouses. They reflect China's newfound prosperity as it starts to spread from the large south-central cities to more remote locations.
To those who believe that China's economy is growing too fast and in danger of overheating, however, the new buildings represent a squandering of resources. They gobble up raw materials like concrete, glass and steel, channeling into property funds that China urgently needs for roads and refineries.
But a closer look at the statistics suggests that while the real-estate sector may be overheating, much of the rest of the Chinese economy isn't.
The pessimistic forecast about China focuses largely on financial data reminiscent of statistics that preceded the economic downturn 10 years ago. For example, just before the economy contracted in 1993, bank lending as a percentage of gross domestic product peaked at 19%, says Nicholas Lardy, the resident specialist on China at the Institute for International Economics in Washington. That massive lending led to double-digit inflation, a real-estate bust and a raft of problematic debt that weakened already ailing banks.
This time, the activity is even more frenzied, Mr. Lardy points out, noting that last year "the ratio went up to 26% after six quarters of expansion." The pessimists argue that such runaway lending last year and earlier this year has been financing too many factories that are producing too much.
Not only is lending as a percentage of GDP growing rapidly, but so is bad debt. The amount of loans outstanding at Chinese banks rose to 2.9 trillion yuan ($350.3 billion) last year from 1.9 trillion yuan in 2002. The soaring growth in loans also has meant a surge in the number of borrowers with weaker credit standing who are gaining access to capital, Mr. Lardy says, and that could lead to a new wave of bad debt.
But by focusing on the supply and production side of the economy, analysts may be neglecting changes on the demand and consumption side of the economy -- changes that statistics may not fully capture. For one thing, data on consumption don't include spending on cars and houses.
The conventional wisdom is that the Chinese population saves too much and spends too little. But evidence on the ground and a close look at the economic data suggest that the imbalance isn't as extreme as it appears to be -- and it is shifting.
"The consumer is already saving China," says Jonathan Anderson, who covers Asian economies for UBS AG out of Hong Kong, in a recent report. "The strength of the consumption story is precisely why we are not looking for a harder landing in the economy."
Retail sales, for example, were up 13% from January to May from the previous year, partly because of a booming market for luxury goods. But the rise also reflects the growing size and demands of China's middle class.
For evidence of the change, look at He Jiang, a local tour guide here. He picks up clients in a Toyota van for which he paid about $25,000 cash and has bought one of the new townhouses outside the city. His clients arrive on flights from all over China, armed with travel information from booming Internet sites on how to bargain to get the price of a guesthouse room down to 200 yuan from 700 yuan.
Or consider Joe Li. He is the assistant to the general manager of a wood-products factory in Lishan, 90 minutes outside Chengdu in Sichuan province. During the week he stays at company housing, but on weekends he drives to a new apartment he bought in Chengdu -- and he already has paid off the mortgage.
Today many entrepreneurs and their financial backers are betting that China's rising middle class will take after its Western counterparts and show a fondness for traveling, buying property and shopping. Peggy Yu says she is already "the beneficiary" of that fondness. She founded DangDang.com, an online retailer that offers 300,000 titles of records, DVDs and books in a nationwide operation that resembles Amazon.com. Ms. Yu, who has an M.B.A. from New York University, has surveyed her customers. She says they have an average income of 5,000 yuan a month, and the bulk are between the ages of 25 and 38.
Three years ago, the Carlyle Group the large Washington-based private equity fund spent $42.5 million for a 40% stake in Pacific China Holdings, a chain of department stores that includes outlets in Chengdu and Chongqing in the west of China and Dalian in the northeast, as well as Beijing and Shanghai. Last year, the stores produced revenues of $363 million, up from $268 million three years earlier.
Dominic Wilson, global senior economist at Goldman Sachs, also falls into the more optimistic camp, pointing out that retail sales overall in China are rising at an annual rate of about 16%. "So far, it is fixed investment that is slowing, not a broader-based domestic-demand deceleration."
This doesn't mean there is no cause for concern, particularly in some segments like property with clear signs of overheating. But it does suggest that China's economy has more resilience than in the past.
中国消费者花钱不手软
在丽江这座中国西南部历史名城的郊区新建起了一排排联栋别墅(townhouses)，这表明中国新近出现的繁荣景象已经从南部的大都市渗透到丽江这种较为边远的城市地区。
那些认为中国经济增长过快，有增长过热危险的人士认为，这种经济繁荣意味著对资源的浪费。因为，房地产热不仅占用了水泥、玻璃、钢铁等大量的原材料，还吸引了巨额的资金，而中国正急需这些资金兴建道路和炼油厂。
但仔细研究经济数据后可以发现，房地产行业虽然可能发展过热，但中国经济的其他领域却未必如此。
上述对中国经济的悲观预期主要反映在金融业的经济数据方面，这些数据不禁让人想起10年前的那次经济增长低迷阶段。国际经济研究所(Institute for International Economics)的中国问题专家尼古拉斯?拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)说，以1993年的那次经济增速放缓为例，当时银行信贷占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例最高时达到19%。如此庞大的贷款规模导致通货膨胀率达到两位数，房地产业转入大萧条，大量坏帐涌现，这进一步加重了银行业的负担。
拉迪指出，这次的银行放贷规模比1993年有过之而无不及。去年，经过6个季度的增长之后，银行信贷占GDP的比例升至26%。悲观人士认为，去年以及今年早些时候如此无节制地放贷为许多工厂提供了资金，导致他们生产过剩。
随著银行信贷占GDP比例的快速上升，坏帐占GDP的比例也在急剧升高。中国银行业去年的不良贷款余额从2002年的人民币1.9万亿元增至2.9万亿元（合3,504亿美元）。拉迪说，贷款的飞速增长也意味著越来越多信贷资质不合格的企业也能从银行获得贷款，这可能导致新一波坏帐风潮的出现。
但由于只关注经济的供给和生产面，分析师们可能忽视了需求和消费面的变化，对这两方面经济数据的变化缺乏足够的了解。例如，中国的消费数据并没有把轿车和住宅的消费包括进去。
传统的观点认为中国人过于节俭，愿意把钱存在银行而不愿消费。但从生活中的实例和经济数据中可以发现这种失衡现象并不像看起来那样严重，而且情形还在转变之中。
瑞士银行(UBS AG)驻香港的亚洲问题经济学家乔纳森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)在最近的一份报告中称，“消费者托起了中国经济。强劲的消费势头正是我们认为中国经济不会出现硬著陆现象的原因所在。”
例如，中国今年前5个月的零售额比上年同期增长了12.5%，这要部分归因于豪华用品消费的增长。这种增长还反映出中国中产阶级队伍和需求的不断壮大。
生活中的例子也有，就拿丽江的导游贺江(音)来说，他用斥资约25,000美元购买的丰田(Toyota)小型客车来接送游客。他还在丽江郊区购买了一栋联栋别墅。他的游客来自中国各地，这些人从互联网上下载关于旅游方面的信息，知道如何讨价还价，把宾馆的住宿价格从700元砍至200元。
在距离成都不远的一家木制品工厂担任总经理助理的Joe Li是另一个活生生的例子。工作日期间他住在公司的宿舍，到了周末他就驾车到他在成都新买的公寓去住，他已经偿还完了住房贷款。
如今，许多企业家和他们的出资方都认为中国不断壮大的中产阶级将效仿西方国家中产阶级的做法，兴起一股旅游、购房和购物热。当当网(DangDang.com)的创始人俞渝(Peggy Yu)说，她就从这股热潮受益匪浅。当当网是一家类似于亚马逊(Amazon.com)的网上零售商，面向全国销售30万种唱片、DVD和书籍。拥有纽约大学(New York University) MBA学位的俞渝在对客户群做过一次调查后发现，她的客户平均月收入为5,000元，年龄大多在25-38岁之间。
高盛(Goldman Sachs & Co.)的全球资深经济学家多米尼克?威尔森(Dominic Wilson)也对中国经济感到比较乐观。他指出，中国年零售额的增速现在达到了16%左右。目前为止，虽然固定资产投资领域有放缓的迹象，但国内消费需求却没有普遍出现增速减缓迹象。
当然，这并不意味著没有让人担心之处，尤其是在房地产等明显出现过热迹象的领域。但中国经济现在抵抗衰退的能力已然今非昔比。
