What's Hot and Not: Crude Held the Sweet Spot in May
If you didn't buy crude in the month of May, chances are you didn't make money.
The price of a barrel shot up more than 5% during a month in which it set repeated record highs. The higher prices in turn helped generate a ripple effect throughout global markets that caused a wide swath of stocks, bonds and other once-highflying assets to retreat. Following a selloff in April for most assets, the rout last month has global investors a bit unnerved and pining for the bullish days in the second half of 2003.
"We've had an incredible winning streak, but we're past that now," said Steve Bleiberg, global strategist for Citigroup Asset Management. "We're back in an environment where there are good months and there are bad months."
May was clearly the latter. With continuing concerns about China tightening monetary policy to slow down its economy before it overheats, and with the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin its own tightening cycle this month, previous big winners sold off. Emerging-market stocks and bonds, most Japanese stocks and many European markets ended the month lower than where they started. Chinese stocks fared better than most, however, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose just more than 2%.
One of the hardest-hit national markets was India's, where a panicky reaction to election results caused the Bombay Sensex Index to fall 17% one day last month. The market rebounded after India's Congress party selected Manmohan Singh, a well-regarded reformer, to be the new prime minister. But the government's stated intentions to scale back the privatization program promoted by the previous government raised fresh concerns, and the Sensex fell nearly 16% for the month.
Oil and commodities were the notable exceptions to the pervading gloom. The Reuters CRB Commodity Futures Index rose 1.7%, and gold-bullion prices edged up after tumbling in April. The price of crude surged above $41, putting pressure on oil-importing nations around the world. Higher oil prices reflected a new surge in demand as economies world-wide continued to expand. Less encouraging has been bottlenecks in distribution, though these are considered more of a temporary problem.
Most worrisome has been the so-called terrorism premium -- the contribution to higher oil prices from renewed fears that an attack could cripple a Middle East supplier of oil. Some investors fret that this premium may remain a factor in global markets for years to come. Sure enough, terrorist attacks against oil-related targets this past weekend in Saudi Arabia could further boost the oil premium, even though supplies coming out of the kingdom appeared to be safe.
"In essence, it's like a permanent tax," Mr. Bleiberg said of the oil price.
Still, not all analysts are ready to write off the year for global markets and assets. Michael Hartnett, global macrostrategist for Merrill Lynch, noted that world-wide economic growth still looks healthy, and corporate earnings, from the U.S. to Japan, have been coming in largely ahead of expectations. "There is some hysteria here about oil prices," Mr. Hartnett said. "But even if prices stay at $35 to $40 a barrel, that's irritating, not disastrous."
Indeed, U.S. assets did better than most in May. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index was up more than 1%, and the dollar continued to hold its own after a rough time last year, falling about 1.1%. The Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index gained more than 5% on the month but is still down for the year; some investors suggested that the sector avoided the May selloff by taking its lumps earlier.
油价上涨冲击全球股市及债市
若你在5月份当中没有买进原油，那么你就错过了获利的机会。
油价在5月份每桶上涨了5%以上，并屡次创下历史纪录。油价的高企反过来又给全球市场带来连锁反应，导致股市、债市及其他一度高涨的资产出现回落。在4月份多数资产遭遇抛售后，5月的哀鸿使得全球投资者都有些身心俱疲，他们都渴望2003年下半年那样的好日子能够重现。
Citigroup Asset Management全球策略师Steve Bleiberg说，市场曾有过令人难以置信的上涨行情，但这一切均已成过去，现在的处境是时好时坏。
5月份明显是属于后一种情形。市场持续担心中国通过收紧信贷防范经济过热的措施可能导致经济增长放缓，同时又普遍预计美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)的紧缩周期将于本月拉开序幕，因此场中的获利者纷纷发出卖单。新兴市场的股市和债市、多数日本股票及许多欧洲市场该月都收低，但中国股市走势稍好，香港恒生指数上涨了2%有余。
跌幅最大的一个市场是印度股市。大选结果的公布导致孟买Sensex指数在一天之内暴跌17%，不过在印度国大党推选受人尊敬的改革家辛格(Manmohan Singh)为新任总理后，市场开始有所反弹。但政府表明有意收缩前政府推动的私有化计划的规模，这引发了市场新的担忧，Sensex在5月累计下跌近16%。
在这一片阴霾中，石油和商品市场却独秀于林。路透CRB商品期货指数上涨1.7%，黄金价格在4月重挫之后也小幅上扬。原油价格突破41美元大关，全球的原油进口国顿感压力重重。油价的高涨反映出，全球经济的持续复苏推高了原油需求。
最令人担忧的因素是所谓的恐怖主义风险，市场重新担心袭击事件可能影响到中东石油的供应，油价于是一路上涨。一些投资者还认为，恐怖主义风险在未来数年都可能是市场的心腹之患。上周末沙特阿拉伯石油目标的遇袭可能进一步提高这种风险，尽管沙特的石油供应从表面看来似乎是安全的。
Bleiberg谈到油价时称，恐怖袭击实质上相当于一次永久性加税。
但并不是所有的分析师都对全球市场及资产在今年全年的走势持悲观态度。美林(Merrill Lynch)全球宏观策略师Michael Hartnett指出，全球的经济增长仍势头未减，从美国到日本的公司收益大多都超过预期。油价的涨势虽有些过猛，但即使其价位停留在每桶35-40美元，影响也只是有限的，不会产生严重冲击。
实际上，美国资产在5月份的表现优于其他多数资产。标准普尔500指数上涨逾1%，美元在去年的动荡表现后继续捍卫阵地，仅下跌了约1.1%。道琼斯美国高科技分类指数5月上涨逾5%，但全年仍累计走低。一些投资者认为，该类股提前启动了跌势，因此得以在5月免遭抛售厄运。
