On Asia: Steady nerves and Chinese wisdom
Manifest plainness, Embrace simplicity, Reduce selfishness, Have few desires.
These wise words, written by the Chinese philosopher Lao-tzu in the sixth century BC, can provide useful guidance for Asian equity investors in the 21st century AD.
For the past year, retail and institutional shareholders have followed the first two parts of Lao-tzu's maxim. The mechanics of the region's stockmarkets were manifestly plain for everyone to see: as Asian economies - powered by the Chinese engine - grew, shares across the region rose on the back of strong financial results and a wave of successful initial public offerings.
By embracing these simple dynamics, many fund managers reaped handsome profits in markets and counties as different as Thailand, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia.
It was, as they say, the perfect storm. For once, the complexity and diverse nature of Asian markets was reduced to a simple axiom understood by Connecticut-based hedge funds, City institutions and Hong Kong small-time gamblers: as long as China keeps growing, the stockmarket show will go on.
Over the past weeks, this cosy world of simple certainties has been turned on its head. Worried by inflationary pressures and the risk of a hard economic landing, China's authorities are making ominous noises over "tightening policy" (i.e raising interest rates and the like).
At the same time, big-ticket Chinese companies, like the insurer China Life and the oil giant CNOOC, are embroiled in corporate governance spats over their willingness (or lack of) to share bad news with investors. And the prospect of a US interest rate hike is stoking fears of a long-term slowdown in the region as a whole.
The obvious result of this chain of events would have been heavy falls in most of the region's markets as the foreign investors who had bought heavily into Asia took their money elsewhere.
But this time, Asian equities opted not to "embrace simplicity". Instead of widespread weakness, we had a localised plunge. The index of Hong Kong-listed large Chinese companies - the best proxy for China stocks - fell 15 per cent in six weeks and is near a five-month low.
While the bears were mauling the Chinese dragon, most of the other markets carried on regardless, notching up record after record. Japan's Nikkei index is hovering around a two-year high, as are the Mumbai, Bangkok, Jakarta, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Sidney markets. South Korea's Kospi index joined the 24-month high club on Friday. And even Taiwan, buffeted by political uncertainties, is not too far the two-year peak reached less than a month ago.
Jargon-lovers will surely not miss the opportunity to highlight such "decoupling" of the Asian stockmarkets from their Chinese counterparts. For the rest of us, Asia's swing from simplicity to complexity holds an interesting lesson and a worrying question.
The lesson is that, despite analysts' and media talk, investors in Asian stocks at the moment are more fearful of the tightening measures planned by Beijing than thee threat of a US rate rise. This is understandable: the tenet of faith held by those who took part in the recent Chinese equity frenzy was the strength of the country's economy. Once that belief goes, so does the confidence in Chinese stocks.
The worrying question is whether Asian stocks can continue to grow without the underpinning of China's rampant economy. My feeling is that in Japan, which is staging its own economic recovery and whose stocks are less dependent on the vagaries of Chinese equities, this is possible and indeed probable.
The real worry are other markets in the region, led by China itself. On a macroeconomic level, if China does slow down, profits of its companies and their counterparts in countries like South Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia could be hit hard. Perhaps more importantly, foreign investor sentiment, which has driven the current rally, could turn against those markets if there were a perception that Asia's economies are grinding to a halt because of China's fading growth.
And that is where the last two teachings by Lao-tzu come in. Selfishness and untrammeled desire for profits have no use in uncertain and "decoupled" markets.
As the Chinese sage might have said: the road to (financial) happiness passes through careful stock picking and accurate reading of the many shifts in market sentiment. The era of sure-fire profits in Asia is gone : from now on, investors will have to equip themselves with steady nerves and a hefty dose of soothing Chinese wisdom.
投资亚洲：能少私寡欲吗
见素抱朴，少私寡欲。
这些智慧的格言，出自公元前六世纪的中国哲学家老子，可以给公元21世纪的亚洲股票投资者提供有用的指导。
过去一年中，散户和机构股东已遵循了老子格言的前两部分。该地区股票市场的机制对每个人都是"见素"的：在中国引擎推动下，随着亚洲经济体的发展，强劲的财务业绩和成功的首次公开上市浪潮支撑该地区的股票上涨。
许多基金经理人信奉这些简单的市场原动力，在不同的市场和国家地区赢得了可观的利润，如泰国、韩国、台湾和澳大利亚。
按照他们的说法，这是一场完美风暴。在总部位于康涅狄格州的对冲基金、伦敦金融城的机构和香港小型投机炒家的理解中，亚洲市场的复杂性和多样的市场本质，就只有这么一次蜕化成一条简单的公理：只要中国保持增长，股票市场的好戏就会继续。
但在过去几周内，这个充满简单而确定事物的安逸世界被搅得乱七八糟。由于担忧通货膨胀压力以及经济硬着陆的风险，中国政府正在发出有关"紧缩政策"(如提高利率和类似措施)的报忧之声。
同时，在与投资人共享坏消息的意愿（或缺乏这种意愿）一事上，保险公司中国人寿(China Life)和石油巨擘中国海洋石油总公司(CNOOC)等大型中国公司深陷公司治理的口舌之争中。美国加息的前景正在煽起市场对整个地区的长期经济下滑的担忧。
由于大量买进亚洲股票的外国投资人将资金撤往他处，因而这一连串事件的结果显而易见，即该地区的大部分市场本来应已遭遇重挫。
但这一次，亚洲股票却没有选择"抱朴"。亚洲市场没有普遍走弱，只是经历了一场局部性的猛挫。作为中国股票的最佳代表，在香港上市的中国大公司指数六周内下跌了15%，接近五个月低点。
在熊市肆虐中国巨龙的同时，但大多数其他市场却毫不在意，继续前进，节节攀高，频创纪录。日本的日经指数目前正在两年高点徘徊，孟买、曼谷、雅加达、新加坡、吉隆坡和悉尼市场也是如此。韩国综合指数上周五也加入了这个24个月高点俱乐部。即使是台湾受到了政治不确定性的打压，但距不到一个月前达到的两年高点也不是太远。
爱说行话的人士肯定将不会错过关注亚洲证券市场与中国市场这种"脱钩"的机会。对于我们其他人来说，亚洲由素转繁是一次有趣的教训，也是一个令人担忧的疑问。
教训是，尽管分析师和媒体的这些言论，但投资于亚洲股市的投资者目前更加担心中国政府计划采取的紧缩措施，而不是美国上调利率。这是可以理解的：对于投身于中国股票热潮的投资者来说，他们信念的宗旨是中国经济在走强。一旦这一信念消失，对中国股票抱有的信心也就消失了。
令人担忧的疑问是，如果没有中国蓬勃的经济作为支撑，亚洲股票是否能继续增长？我的感觉是，在日本，这是可能的，而且的确很有可能。日本经济目前正在自主复苏，而且日本股市对走势无常的中国股票的依赖程度没有那么高。
真正令人担忧的，是该地区由中国推动的其他市场。在宏观经济层面，如果中国大陆经济增长果真放缓，中国大陆企业的利润和韩国、台湾、印尼等地的企业利润可能会受到严重打击。或许更重要的是，一旦市场认为亚洲的各经济体正在因中国大陆的经济增长放缓而趋于停滞，推动当前一轮上扬走势的外国投资者信心可能会转而对这些市场不利。
而这正是老子教导的后两条产生作用的地方。在充满不确定性和"脱钩"的市场上，自私和毫无约束的利润欲望没用。
正如这位中国圣人当初可能会说的那样：仔细选股并准确判读大量市场多空情绪的变化，是通往（财富）快乐之路。在亚洲市场稳稳当当获利的时代一去不复返了：从现在起，投资者将必须给自己配备稳定的心态，还要有一大剂镇静剂--中国智慧。
