HK Property Mkt Regains Allure After Years In Doldrums
Hong Kong's battered property market may finally have bottomed out and seems to be showing a sustained rebound after years of falling prices, analysts say.
For the first time in years, many small-time buyers in this Asian financial hub think they can make money, not lose it, by investing in real estate.
Just ask Pat Lee, who's so bullish about the market that - buying property for the first time - he recently snapped up not one but two 62-square-meter apartments.
The 30-year-old pharmacist paid a total of HK$4.88 million for both apartments, and says one has already risen in value by 15%.
"I think the prices will go up even more in the next few months," he said.
Such optimism has been missing in Hong Kong since its real estate bubble burst in 1997, shortly after this former British colony returned to Chinese rule.
Hong Kong's property prices are still among the world's highest, but they've plunged by almost 70% from their peak.
The slide left many Hong Kong mortgage holders with "negative equity" - meaning they owed the bank more than their apartments were worth.
"The whole Hong Kong property market has been dismal for the past six years," said Wong Leung-sing , research manager at the Centaline Property Agency Ltd. "Just nine months ago, all of us were still calling for help. The rebound was very rapid."
One factor has been Beijing's economic measures to help boost Hong Kong's depressed economy following last year's outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, said Adrian Ngan, head of regional property research at BNP Paribas Peregrine.
China is allowing more of its citizens to travel to Hong Kong for tourism, and it's also struck a free trade deal with the territory.
Though Hong Kong has returned to Chinese sovereignty, it has separate economic, legal and political systems.
Wong said the real estate market has been climbing continuously for the past seven months - a sustained rise that hasn't happened since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.
Property prices have surged by 45% since they hit bottom in August, Wong said. But they're still well below the peaks they hit in 1997.
As prices rise, so do transactions. So far this year, Hong Kong has recorded about 11,000 home sales per month - double the numbers in 2003. The demand is especially high for luxury flats, as long-term investors are drawn by the prospects of promising rental yields, Wong said.
Even Hollywood action star Jean-Claude Van Damme was reportedly attracted by the territory's topflight apartments. He paid a record HK$85 million for a two-story duplex here, said The Hong Kong Economic Times newspaper.
The turnaround is providing welcome relief to the thousands of Hong Kongers stuck in negative equity.
Godfrey Sung, a 32-year-old stock broker, said the value of a small apartment he bought in 1996 for HK$1.9 million is only worth half as much now, although its value has risen by 28% from its lowest point.
Sung recently bought a second property for HK$3.7 million, and says he's ready to sell the first one, even at a loss.
"I think the market is improving, and I need a bigger flat for my family," he said.
Lee predicted he can make a profit of about HK$500,000 from selling one of his apartments. He might even sell both, and trade up to something more luxurious.
"I think there will be more good news that will boost the Hong Kong property market in the next year or two," Lee said.
No so fast, some analysts warn. Some say the rebound came so fast that it could lose steam.
"Prices have gone up so much that demand will probably contract," Ngan said.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's warning this week about higher interest rates are a worry for Hong Kong, which pegs its currency to the greenback and typically follows U.S. rate adjustments. Any slowdown in China's economy could also hurt Hong Kong's property market.
Eva Lee, property analyst at ING Financial Markets, predicted property prices would stabilize during the second quarter, but could still climb another 5% to 10% for the rest of the year.
香港房地产市场走重新焕发魅力
分析师称，香港萎靡不振的房地产市场也许终于走出了谷底，在历经数年的价格下跌之后，似乎正在显示出持续反弹迹象。
这个亚洲金融中心的许多小投资者开始觉得，他们通过投资房地产能够赚到钱，不会亏本。这种想法可是多年来未曾有过的。
问一下Pat Lee吧，他对地产市场十分乐观，最近刚刚购买了两套62平米的住宅，这是他第一次在房地产方面投资。
这位30岁的药剂师为此共支付了488万港元。他表示，其中一套已经升值了15%。
他认为，房价在今后几个月还会进一步上涨。
自从1997年香港房地产泡沫破灭之后，市场终于迎来了这种久违的乐观情绪。 香港房地产价格仍居世界前列，但已经由高点回落了近70%。
价格的重挫使香港出现了许多负资产的按揭购房者，也就是说他们欠银行的钱超过了所购买住宅的价值。
中原地产(Centaline Property Agency Ltd)研究经理Wong Leung-sing称，过去六年中整个香港地产市场持续低迷。就在9个月以前，大家还都在呼吁政府采取救助措施。如今的反弹十分迅速。
BNP百富勤(BNP Paribas Peregrine)区域地产研究主管Adrian Ngan称，市场获得提振的一个原因是中央政府在去年非典型肺炎(SARS)爆发后一直采取措施帮助振兴香港低迷的经济。
中国政府鼓励大陆居民到香港旅游，还与香港达成一项自由贸易协议。
虽然香港已经回归中国，但它的经济、法律和政治体系自成一体。
Wong说，过去7个月中房地产市场一直持续上升，这种势头是1997-98年亚洲金融危机以来从未出现过的。
房地产价格自从去年8月触底后已经攀升了45%，但仍远远低于1997年创下的高点。
随著价格的回升，房地产交易量也与日俱增。今年截至目前，香港每月的房屋销售量约11,000套，是2003年的两倍。Wong说，对高档住宅的需求尤为高涨，因为长线投资者受到良好的出租收益前景吸引。
据称，就连好莱坞动作明星尚格云顿(Jean-Claude Van Damme)也钟情于香港的高档地产。《香港经济日报》报导，他花费8,500万港元购买了当地的一幢复式住宅。
市场的复苏使数以千计陷入负资产的香港人舒了一口气。
32岁的股票经纪人Godfrey Sung说，他在1996年花190万港元购买的一套小面积住宅如今只值一半的价钱，不过它的价值已经由最低点回升了28%。
Sung最近又以370万港元购买了第二套住宅，他表示，他准备卖掉第一套，亏本也无妨。
他说，"市场正在改善，我需要一套更大的住宅供家人居住。"
Lee预计，若卖掉其中一套房子，他可以获利50万港元。他也许会把两套房子全都卖掉，再去购买更豪华的住宅。 他说，"我认为在今后一两年中还会有更多好消息提振香港房地产市场。"
但一些分析师警告说，市场不会恢复得那么快。部分分析师认为，市场当前反弹势头过快，可能会丧失动力。
Ngan说，价格已经涨得很多了，需求很可能会收缩。
美国联邦储备委员会(U.S. Federal Reserve)主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)本周警告说，利率的走高是香港的一大隐忧，因为港元实行与美元的联系汇率制，往往会追随美国的利率调整。如果中国大陆经济放缓，香港地产市场可能受到损害。
ING Financial Markets的地产分析师Eva Lee预计，第二季度房地产价格将会企稳，但年内剩余时间仍有望进一步上涨5%到10%。
