Techs Decline; Mkt Watchers See Move To Old-Economy Stks
Last year, technology stocks were the darlings of Wall Street. While concerns about the economy abounded in 2003, most things technology saw a nice uptick in the stock market.
But in recent weeks, the reverse has been happening, with investors opting to sell off techs in droves. And if Monday's performance is indicative of how tech issues will perform this year, investors may have to brace for further bloodletting.
"In the grand scheme of things, the market is recognizing a change in leadership from the last bull market to this bull market," said Jeff Matthews , general partner with hedge fund Ram Partners. "This one is being driven by old economy and deep cyclical."
Judging by Monday's performance, investors seem to be avoiding most things tech. At the close Monday, the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is heavily laden with tech issues, was off 30.56 to 1909.91. Meanwhile the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 4.45, to 458.90.
Tech stocks hitting new 52-week lows included Redback Networks Inc. (RBAK), which was closed off 10%, Palmsource Inc. (PSRC), which was down 7.6%, and McData Corp. (MCDT) which was off 5.1%.
The Nasdaq, which soared 50% last year to end December at 2003, is now down 5% so far this year. The index, which fell for three consecutive years before rebounding last year, remains 62% below its all-time closing high of 5,046 set in March 2000. The index has fallen 11% since closing above 2,150 in late January.
According to Matthews, investors are realizing that it isn't so easy to make money in techland anymore.
"Much of tech has been commoditized," said the money manager. "You can't make money making hard drives or graphic chips."
Adding to the woes, said Ned Riley, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, is worry that interest rates and inflation might rise. While the money manager said there isn't any evidence today that inflation will rise, there are concerns in the stock market that it will, which is partially to blame for the decline in tech stocks.
"This group does not respond nicely to an increasing interest rate environment," said Riley. "Tech in particular is really strong when interest rates fall. It does not put on the same kind of performance when interest rates rise."
Also, Riley said investors are opting to put their money in more old-economy industries such as oil, lumber, copper, insurance and, in some cases, healthcare.
But concerns about the commoditization of technology and fears regarding inflation aren't the only culprits for the recent decline in tech stocks. Pure old profit-taking can also take some of the blame.
"The market's knee-jerk reaction was to buy tech, and by doing that, people pretty much discounted whatever good news (there was)," said Ram's Matthews. He pointed to Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) as an example of one stock that has had a nice run up, and is now trading around 27 times peak earnings.
For investors who do have the stomach to stay in technology, Matthews said there are ways to make money. He pointed to Micron Technology Inc. (MU), in which he has a long position. According to Matthews, Micron will benefit from the price increases for dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips.
"I don't think it's over (for tech stocks)," he said. "There are a lot of interesting areas. But this idea of buying Cisco, IBM and Microsoft is for the birds."
科技股失宠，传统经济类股重获青睐
去年，科技股成为华尔街的宠儿。虽然对经济前景的担忧仍挥之不去，但大部分科技股还是呈现了良好的上涨势头。
但是最近几周来，形势发生了逆转，投资者开始纷纷抛售科技股。如果周一走势是科技股今年表现的缩影的话，投资者也许要遭遇更大的厄运了。
对冲基金Ram Partners的管理合伙人杰夫?马修斯(Jeff Matthews)称，从大局来看，市场正在意识到这个牛市的领头羊较之上一个牛市已经发生了变化。这次市场的领头羊是受传统经济驱动的周期性很强的类股。
从周一的表现来看，投资者似乎开始避免介入科技股。那斯达克综合指数当日收盘下跌30.56点，至1909.91点。费城证交所半导体分类指数下跌4.45点，收于458.90点。
多只科技股创下52周新低，如Redback Networks Inc. (RBAK)收盘下跌10%；Palmsource Inc.(PSRC)下跌7.6%；McData Corp. (MCDT)下跌5.1%。
去年累计飙升50%的那斯达克综合指数今年迄今下挫5%。该指数较其2000年3月创下的历史收盘高点5,046点低62%，自1月底收于逾2,150点以来下跌了11%。该指数在连续三年下跌后去年终于实现反弹。
马修斯称，投资者意识到，要想从科技股中赚钱不再是件容易的事了。他说，许多科技公司的业务越来越商品化，而只是生产硬盘驱动器或图形晶片是赚不了大钱的。
State Street Global Advisors的首席投资策略师奈德?瑞利(Ned Riley)称，对利率和通货膨胀上升的担忧加剧了科技股的疲势。虽然他表示眼下并没有证据说明通货膨胀率将会上升，但股市确实有此担忧，这是造成科技股下挫的部分原因。
瑞利说，科技行业不喜欢利率上升，当利率下降时，它们会显得格外强劲，而利率上升时它们的表现则不尽人意。
他表示，投资者现在倾向于投资那些更传统的行业，如石油、木材、铜、保险以及医疗保健等。
但是，对科技业日趋商品化的担心和对通货膨胀的恐慌并非科技股最近下挫的唯一理由。单纯性的获利回吐也是其中部分原因。 马修斯称，市场以前的条件反射式反应就是买进科技股，投资者充分考虑了各种有利消息。他以德州仪器(Texas Instruments Inc., TXN)为例，该股拥有十分骄人的涨势，目前的股价是其最高收益的27倍左右。
对于那些敢于继续持有科技股的投资者，马修斯表示，他们仍可以从一些股票中获利，如美光科技(Micron Technology Inc., MU)。他说，该公司将受益于DRAM晶片价格的上涨。他持有该股股票。
他说，科技股的盛世并未结束，还有许多可以投资的领域。但是，要是还想买进思科系统(Cisco)、IBM和微软(Microsoft)这类股票就未免有些荒唐了。
