Investors Study U.S. Holdings As Stocks, Dollar Start to Waver
It's nail-biting time for investors outside the U.S. who hold American stocks. Just as the stock market in the U.S. is beginning to look a bit shaky, currency markets are fumbling for direction.
For much of the past year, U.S. stocks have climbed steadily as the U.S. dollar fell against most foreign currencies. Despite the currency risk, the amount of U.S. shares bought by foreigners has been increasing as well, especially during the past few months. Those investors have been willing to bet that stock gains will continue to outpace currency losses. Now, foreign investors have to consider the possibility that the two trends could reverse.
Renewed foreign buying of U.S. stocks is one reason for the dollar's recent wavering: More foreign money being swapped for dollars to buy stocks puts upward pressure on the currency. Should foreigners start selling again, it could accelerate the dollar's weakening.
For foreign investors, it is a gamble. If they believe both stocks and the dollar are set to weaken further, it might be time to bolt. But either a rising stock market or a rising dollar could be reason to hold on.
Foreign investors recently have returned to U.S. stock markets with a vengeance, after turning lukewarm on U.S. shares two years ago because of the bursting of the technology bubble. For the three months to January (the latest data available), private foreign investors bought $35.7 billion more U.S. stocks than they sold. For 2003, foreign private investors bought only a net $37.8 billion. Those purchases came despite continued declines in the dollar, which would have whittled away some of the gains made in stocks when foreigners calculated them in their currencies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up about 25% last year in dollar terms. But in Thai baht terms, it rose only 15%. In yen terms, the Dow was up 13%. The strengthening of the euro against the dollar meant the Dow was up just 4.8% in euro terms last year.
But recently, the year-old bull market in U.S. stocks has begun to waver, with the Dow falling 3.4% for the week ended March 12 and an additional 0.5% last week. Some analysts say markets are taking a welcome breather from the heady gains of the past year and that they will continue to rise after a small correction in prices. Others say most stocks are overvalued at current prices and that the bull market has come to an end.
To foreign investors, the fate of the dollar is an important part of the equation. The problem is, recent swings in the dollar have left currency markets in confusion, and the dollar's path is far from clear.
"We haven't seen volatility like this in quite a while," says Steve Chang, treasury head in Hong Kong for Boston-based State Street Corp. He adds that uncertainty over U.S. interest rates, plus the November U.S. election, mean a clear path for the dollar is unlikely anytime soon. "Before things get better, they are going to get a bit more volatile."
The market for currency futures, where investors can bet on the future value of currencies, is a good illustration of how the one-way bet on the falling dollar has disappeared. In this market, speculators and companies that want to hedge currency risk can offer to buy or sell currencies at a future date, making money if the currencies shift in their favor. Since August, the balance of options contracts has been running in favor of a weakening dollar, at times massively so. But with the Bank of Japan spending huge amounts on behalf of the Finance Ministry to maintain the dollar's strength against the yen, currency speculators appear to be giving up.
The Bank of Japan spent a record ￥20 trillion ($187.16 billion) last year buying dollars to stem the yen's rise. During the first two months of this year, Japanese authorities have spent more than half last year's record amount.
That buying finally appears to have convinced currency-futures traders to back off. They have been overwhelmingly bearish on the dollar for most of the past year but since the start of this month, they have been changing their bets. For the first time since Aug. 19, there were more contracts betting on a rising dollar against six major currencies than were betting on the dollar falling, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week to March 9.
That currency speculators no longer are betting one way on the dollar isn't evidence that the trend of a weakening dollar has ended. Nor is the blip in U.S. stocks evidence that the bull market is history. But the uncertainty in both markets leaves foreign investors reconsidering their U.S. holdings.
海外投资者重新审视美国股市
眼下，那些持有美国股票的海外投资者真是束手无策。你瞧：就在美国股市出现波动时，外汇市场也摇摆不定，叫人摸不著头脑。
在过去一年的大部分时间里，美国股市一直在稳步上升，而美元兑大多数主要货币的汇率则不断下滑。尽管美元面临较大风险，但海外投资者购买美国股票的数量一直在增加，尤其是在过去几个月里。
这些投资者坚信，美国股市上升带来的收益将超过美元走低造成的损失。可如今，他们不得不考虑，情况会不会颠倒过来呢？
海外投资者再度大举投资美国股市是美元近期波动的原因之一。大量外汇被兑换成美元用来购买美国股票，给美元带来了升值压力。而如果海外投资者再次抛售美国股票，那么美元则有可能加速下跌。
对于国外投资者而言，这是一场赌博。如果他们认为美国股市和美元都将进一步下滑，那现在也许该溜之大吉了；而如果股市和美元有一个能继续走高，那么他们就有理由留在场内。
两年前的科技股泡沫使海外投资者对美国股市敬而远之，如今他们可是带著报仇雪恨的心情重返美国股市的。在截至今年1月份的最近3个月里（这是我们所能得到的最新资料），海外私人投资者对美国股票的净买入量超过了357亿美元。而他们在2003年全年的净买入量不过378亿美元。
在海外投资者大举进军美国股市的同时，美元却不断下跌，如果换算成外国货币，这无疑会抹煞他们在股市上的部分收益。去年，道琼斯指数以美元计算上涨了25%左右，但如用泰铢计算，其涨幅只有15%；用日圆计算的话，涨幅只有13%。欧元的持续走强则意味著该指数在去年仅仅上涨了4.8%。
不过从美国股市最近一段时间的走势来看，持续一年的牛市已开始出现动摇：在截至3月12日的一周里，道琼斯指数下跌了3.4%，上周又下滑了0.5%。一些分析师认为，经过去年的强劲上涨之后，市场目前正稍事休整；在小幅盘整后，股价还将再度上扬。而另一些分析师则表示，大多数股票在目前的价位上已被高估，牛市已经结束。
在海外投资者看来，美元的走势是左右市场的一个重要因素。可问题在于，美元近期的摇摆不定令外汇市场不得其解，而美元今后的走势更是扑朔迷离。
美国道富银行(State Street Corp., STT)驻香港的资金部负责人Steve Chang表示，过去很长一段时间里都没有看到美元出现如此剧烈的波动了。他补充说，由于美国基准利率的前景尚不确定，另外美国将在今年11月份举行总统大选，美元的走势不会很快明朗。他认为，在形势好转前，美元的波动性还会加大。
而外汇期货市场的现状更是充分表明，认为美元将持续走低的一边倒的观点已经不复存在了。在这一市场上，投机商和企业可以通过约定在未来某一日期买卖外汇来规避风险。如果某种货币的汇率涨跌符合他们的预期，那么他们就会获利。从去年8月份以来，外汇期权合同就偏向于弱势美元，有时甚至几乎是一边倒。但由于日本央行代表财务省(Ministry of Finance)在外汇市场上不断投入巨额资金遏制日圆升值，投资者们似乎已放弃了原先的想法。
去年，日本央行动用了创纪录的20万亿日圆（合1871.6亿美元）购入美元，来阻止日圆进一步上扬。在今年的头两个月里，日本政府在外汇市场上投入的资金已超过了去年全年总量的一半。
日本政府持续买入美元的举动终于喝退了外汇期货市场上看跌美元的投资者。投资者在去年大部分时间里一直看跌美元，但从今年3月份以来，他们开始改变了看法。根据期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)的统计，在截至3月9日的一周里，汇市上看涨美元的合约数量超过了看跌美元的合约，从去年8月19日以来这还是第一次。
不过，投机商不再一边倒地认为美元只会走软的事实并不表明弱势美元已经结束，同时美国股市的回调也不能说明牛市已成为历史，但股市和汇市的摇摆不定必然让海外投资者重新审视他们在美国市场的投资。
