Why Bush must bow to Japan's desire for dollars
Zembei Mizoguchi, who is sitting in Tokyo, will do more to decide who wins the US presidential election than almost anyone else on the planet.
Mr Mizoguchi is not a campaign strategist, US Federal Reserve chairman or even an online pundit. He is vice-minister in Japan's Ministry of Finance - a very powerful position, but not one that usually gives its holder much influence over the US presidential race.
But this year is different. Mr Mizoguchi decides how many American dollars Japan will buy each week. Every dollar he buys has direct impact on long-term interest rates in the US. And long-term rates this year will go a long way towards deciding who walks into the Oval Office next January.
If you think this is an exaggeration, consider that, in January alone, Mr Mizoguchi bought a record $70bn and poured nearly all of it into the US bond market. He has the authority to buy $100bn more this year and a bill moving through the Japanese parliament would double that figure - more than enough to cover even the wildest estimates of next year's US budget deficit. And that is exactly what is happening. Without Mr Mizoguchi, US rates would have to rise sharply in search of other buyers.
Of course, Mr Mizoguchi is not working directly for the Bush campaign. His goal is to keep the yen at levels that help Japanese exporters sell more products to the US and to Europe. Precisely because of that, you might expect election-sensitive Bush administration officials to protest about intervention on such a grand scale.
US manufacturers are screaming loudly already and job losses in America's industrial heartland appear to be threatening President George W. Bush's re-election prospects. Just last month, Toyota overtook Ford as the world's number two car company.
European leaders have definitely noticed Japan's growing hold. During the recent gathering of industrial leaders in Boca Raton, Florida, several prominent Europeans had to be all but tranquillised whenever the subject of Japan's dollar-buying campaign came up. But there was nary a word of protest from US leaders.
To be fair, Bush officials are a lot more sympathetic to Japan's recovery struggles than their European counterparts and Japan has allowed the yen to strengthen quite a bit since being initially savaged by John Snow, Treasury secretary, in Dubai last autumn.
But they also know that, when Japan buys dollars to keep the yen cheaper, most of that money goes to buy US government bonds and that, in turn, has kept long-term interest rates extraordinarily low in spite of exploding US budget deficits and strong economic growth.
Bush administration officials are well aware that the low interest rates keep the US housing market booming, consumers spending and the economy much stronger than if rates were rising as they usually do at this point in the economic cycle. All of that has helped offset weak employment numbers that would otherwise doom Mr Bush's re-election bid.
Higher long-term rates would hit homeowners twice over. First, their houses would be worth less and be harder to sell, thus cutting into their sense of security and liquidity. Second, since most new mortgages have adjustable interest rates, homeowners would be paying more each month for those houses, leaving them with less cash to spend.
As homeowners felt less confident about their main store of wealth and had less spending money, they would pull back on spending in stores. Any serious slowdown in consumption and you can kiss this economy goodbye.
All of this brings us back to Mr Mizoguchi in Tokyo. Without Japan's truly unprecedented buying of US bonds, interest rates would shoot up and the US housing market would crack. This is particularly true as other big Asian buyers of dollars have shied away from the US market in recent months. If Japan steps away from defending the yen and thus from buying American bonds, the full weight of the current budget deficits will be felt in US markets for the first time.
So, for now, Karl Rove, Bush campaign strategist, should keep two important points in mind if and when he begins thinking about international monetary policy.
First, keep that steady downward pressure on the dollar in place, at least until later this year. Second, if you run into Mr Mizoguchi in the US Treasury headquarters in Washington, stop for a moment and thank him. But just remember, you should bow imperceptibly lower than he does.
布什为何要向日本鞠躬
对于决定谁将赢得美国总统大选，在这个星球上几乎没人能比坐镇东京的日本财务省次官沟口善兵卫(Zembei Mizoguchi)更有所作为了。
他并非大选战略家，也不是美联储主席，甚至连网络权威也不是。他是日本财务省次官，虽然这是个非常有实权的位子，但一般来说，身居此位的人并不能对美国总统竞选产生多大影响。
但今年的情形不同。沟口先生决定着日本每周买进美元的规模。他授意买进的每一块美元都会直接影响美国的长期利率。而今年美国长期利率的走势，将对决定谁能在明年1月入主白宫起到长远的影响。
如果你认为我在夸大其辞，那就想一下，单单1月份，沟口先生就创纪录地买进700亿美元，并把它们几乎全部投入美国债券市场。今年他有权再买进1000亿美元，而且目前正在讨论的一项议案如果在日本国会得到通过，那么这个数字有可能被翻番，哪怕用来填补明年美国财政赤字最大胆的预测金额也绰绰有余。而现在的情况正是如此，如果沟口先生不买美元，那么为了搜寻其它买家，美国利率水平就只能大幅上升。
当然，沟口先生并不是直接在为布什的竞选效劳。他的目标是把日元汇率保持在一定水平，以帮助日本出口商向美国和欧洲出售更多产品。正因如此，你可能预计，对大选敏感的布什政府官员将对如此大规模的干预表示抗议。
美国制造商在鼓噪，加上美国工业核心地带的失业状况似乎正威胁到乔治o布什总统的连任前景。就在上个月，丰田(Toyota)超过福特(Ford)，成为全球第二大汽车公司。
欧洲领导人肯定注意到了日本的影响力越来越大。在最近美国佛罗里达州博卡拉顿(Boca Raton)举行的工业国首脑会议上，只要一触及日本买进美元的话题，几位主要的欧洲领导人就难以保持平静，但美国领导人连一句抗议也没有。
公平地说，对于日本复苏经济的努力，布什政府的官员较欧洲国家政府官员表现出更多的同情。而自从去年秋天在迪拜最初遭到美国财政部长约翰o斯诺(John Snow)的激烈抨击后，日本已允许日元上涨了不少。
但布什政府的官员也知道，虽然日本为把日元汇率控制在较低水平而购进美元，但其中多数美元都用于购买美国政府债券，因而尽管美国预算赤字膨胀同时经济增长强劲，但美国长期利率还是因此维持在非常低的水平。
布什政府官员非常清楚，目前的低利率水平要比高利率更能维持住房市场热潮、消费支出，以及强劲增长的经济。而在目前所处的经济周期阶段，利率通常会不断上升。而现在，所有这些帮助抵消了就业数字的疲弱，否则布什的连任努力注定会失败。
长期利率提高会对美国户主构成双重打击。首先，他们房屋的价值会下跌而更加难以出售，从而削弱他们的安全感和资金流动性。其次，多数新按揭贷款采用浮动利率，利率提高后业主每月将支出更多利息，导致他们手头可供支出的现金减少。
随着户主对自己主要财富的信心减弱，加之他们的消费资金缩减，他们就会减少购物，由此导致的任何消费严重滑坡都会让美国告别经济增长。
上述种种都令我们重新想到东京的沟口先生。要不是日本以真正前所未有地购买美国债券，美国的利率水平就会飙升，而美国楼市就会崩溃。这种假设特别真实，因为近几个月来，亚洲其它美元大买家都在回避美国市场。如果日本不再维持日元汇率，因而也不再购买美国债券，那美国市场就将首次感受到当前预算赤字带来的全部压力。
因此就目前来说，布什的竞选参谋卡尔o罗福(Karl Rove)如果或已经开始考虑国际货币政策，那他就应当牢记两个要点。
首先，至少在今年年底前，保持美元受到的稳步下跌压力。其次，如果你在华盛顿的美国财政部撞见沟口先生，要停下脚步向他致谢。但千万记住，你鞠的躬要略比他低些。
