How the old economy can reclaim youth
Operators of oilfields in the North Sea face a serious demographic problem. The average age of the offshore worker in the UK is 49 and rising, while fewer younger people are studying science and engineering.
The number of graduates studying chemical engineering in Britain is estimated to have fallen 32 per cent in the past five years. US graduate student enrolments in geo- science in 2000 were only half of those seen in 1996, according to the American Geological Institute.
That the demographic time bomb is to have a profound impact on all businesses is already clear. But the ultimate survival of some of the most important industries round the world - such as the energy and chemicals industries - depends on their ability to attract and retain employees with highly technical skills in sectors that some now consider unglamorous.
Globalisation is already offering a solution, widening the pool of workers that companies can access. Energy companies are venturing further into new and unfamiliar exploration territories - such as Russia and Africa - while chemicals companies are increasingly outsourcing their activities to lower-cost producing countries in the east.
More and more companies recognise the value of training and retaining local employees. Schlumberger, the oilfield services group, aims to recruit local employees in the same proportion to the amount of business it conducts in a specific country. "We are hiring in Russia and China because we have activity in Russia and China," says Stephen Whittaker, director of communications at Schlumberger.
Replenishing skilled professionals in industries that require deep skills and experience will b e costly.
Carl Dugdale, general manager for the UK at Celerant Consulting, says: "Companies will look in one of two directions. Either they will pay up and fill vacancies, which might take time, or they will look further afield. That will create more competition in these fields."
Technology will be another part of the solution. Technological advances have diminished the number of workers needed within industries and, in some cases, precluded the need for human beings altogether.
Some energy companies, for example, are already operating oil and gas fields remotely. Dr Ian Moore, a consultant with Cap Gemini Ernst & Young, has been working with a Canadian oil company that is collecting technical data on more than half its 4,000 wells from a remote location.
He says the use of "smart field" technologies has allowed the company to gather more accurate data more frequently - even minute by minute - than when people were taking various readings and measurements.
Changes in technology will also mean that companies will demand a different set of skills in the future. Innovation and entrepreneurship will also become increasingly important across all technical sectors.
Beyond attracting the talent, companies must also find efficient ways to transfer the knowledge and skills needed for a job from one generation to the next. The knowledge of experienced workers can increasingly be recorded and catalogued for training purposes.
Cogent, the employer-led sector skills council in the UK for the oil and gas extraction, chemicals manufacturing and petroleum industries, this month started Evolvonline, the world's largest e-learning library, to train technical employees in those sectors.
But many in industries such as oil and chemicals argue that there must also be changes in the way technical disciplines are taught in schools, which some blame for failing to engage many young people in these subjects.
"Teaching science in an exciting and engaging way is important. Kids are not generally so attracted to science and engineering as they were 15 years ago," says Sue Ion, director of technology and operations at BNFL, the nuclear fuels and engineering company.
Industry associations and companies have started to take the skills shortages issue on board. The UK Offshore Operators Association has been sponsoring a training programme for secondary school teachers to inspire them to make subjects such as earth science exciting for children.
BNFL, alarmed by the lack of relevant college courses, has created alliances with four UK universities to establish a skills base of 140 researchers using a research budget of about ?0m. It is also in the early stages of setting up an institution in Manchester that will focus on education in nuclear subjects.
But the struggle to secure the most talented graduates is made harder by the "old economy" image surrounding many of these industries. The perception that some of the jobs are dangerous or come with an inflexible lifestyle does not help.
"The real issue has to do with perception," says Dr Ion. "People perceive the industry as winding down and not having a future. They have got to see the industry as attractive and as having a long-term future."
Rachael Bartels, the partner at Accenture's chemical practice, says: "The chemicals industry doesn't really portray itself as 'sexy' any more. Starting in the 1990s, the attractiveness of the industry has slowly started to drop in terms of a career choice. There is a lot of subliminal stuff about science and chemistry as being dirty and smelly."
Companies themselves often fail to offer the kind of reward structure and exciting career path the best and brightest have come to value. Mr Dugdale at Celerant Consulting says: "Some of these companies have difficulty finding bright young people to come through. They tend to blame it on the fact they are in the mature industries. But that is a myth. How does [a company] do it? Offer a meritocratic system and management process that allows people to achieve fulfilment and success rapidly."
Many would argue that a skills crisis would be unlikely in a global marketplace. But in the energy sector the impact of the shortage will be felt within five to 10 years, according to Susie Gear, the oil and gas partner at Accenture.
"This is a strategic issue and a competitive advantage issue," she says. "The companies that will succeed in the future are the companies that can connect talent supplies with demand."
老产业如何还童
北海油田的经营者面临一个严重的(劳动力)人口问题。在英国，海上石油工人的平均年龄是49岁，这个年龄并且还在上升。同时，学理工科的年轻人正越来越少。
过去五年中，英国化工专业的大学毕业生估计减少了32%。据美国地质学会(American Geological Institute)统计，2000年美国入学的地球科学专业的研究生人数仅是1996年的一半。
（劳动力）人口问题这颗定时炸弹将对所有行业产生深远影响，这已经显而易见。但对世界各地一些最重要的行业（比如能源和化学品行业）来说，最终能否生存下去，将取决它们是否有能力吸引到技艺高超的员工、并把他们留在有些人看来非常乏味的领域。
全球化为人们提供了一种解决方案，扩大了企业可得到的工人资源库。能源公司正在进一步开拓新的、不熟悉的领域，如在俄罗斯和非洲地区；而化工企业则越来越多把生产外包给成本较低的东方国家。
越来越多的公司认识到，培训和留住当地员工相当重要。油田服务集团斯伦贝谢(Schlumberger)的目标是，在一个国家招募本地员工的数量与公司在当地的业务规模保持相同比例。斯伦贝谢的公关总监斯蒂芬#维特克(Stephen Whittaker)说："我们正在俄罗斯和中国招募员工，因为我们在俄罗斯和中国有业务活动。"
在那些对技巧和经验要求很高的行业，补充熟练专业人员将耗资巨大。
Celerant Consulting英国区总经理卡尔#达格代尔(Carl Dugdale)说："企业将有两条路可走：要么花钱培养人才填补空缺，这可能要花不少时间，要么在更大范围内招募。那将使这些领域的竞争更为激烈。"
解决方案的另一部分是科技。技术进步已减少了产业所需的工人数量，在某些领域已完全排除了对人力资源的需求。
例如，一些能源公司已对油气田进行远程操作。凯捷安永咨询公司(Cap Gemini Ernst & Young)的顾问伊恩#摩尔博士(Dr. Ian Moore)一直在为一家加拿大石油公司工作。该公司有4000口油井，目前半数以上油井的技术数据是通过远程收集的。
摩尔博士表示，与从前用人力读取与测量各种数据相比，"智能油田"技术使公司能够更频繁地收集更准确的数据--甚至每分钟收集一次。
技术变革还意味着，企业将来需要的是一套不同的技能。在所有技术领域，创新和创业精神也变得越来越重要。
除了吸引人才，企业还必须找到有效途径，使一份工种所需的知识和技能得以转让。并更多地把有经验的工人所掌握的知识记录下来，汇编成册，以备培训之用。
本月，由雇主领头发起的英国行业技能委员会Cogent启动了全球最大的电子学习图书馆项目Evolvonline。该委员会面向英国油气提炼、化学品制造和石油行业，Evolvonline项目将培训这些行业的技术员工。
但石油和化工等行业的许多人认为，学校也必须改变技术学科的教学方法，一些人责怪说，现有教学方法未能吸引年轻人对这些学科的兴趣。
"用一种兴奋和引人入胜的方法来讲授科学很重要。与15年前相比，现在的孩子对理工科已没那么感兴趣，"英国核燃料公司(BNFL)的技术和运营总监苏#约恩(Sue Ion)说。英国核燃料公司是一家核燃料工程公司。
行业协会和公司已开始着手解决技能短缺的问题。英国海上作业经营者协会(UK Offshore Operators Association) 一直在承办一个中学教师培训计划，启发他们改进教学方法，激发孩子们对地球科学课程的兴趣。
英国核燃料公司（BNFL)对大学缺乏相关课程感到吃惊，并已与英国四所大学结成联盟，建立一个由140名研究人员组成的技能基地，研究预算约有4000万英镑。该公司在曼彻斯特开设学院的计划已进入初期阶段。这家学院将致力于核学科的教育。
但在这些行业中，许多都是一副"老产业"面孔，这使它们更难赢得最有才华的大学毕业生。一般的印象是，一些工作有危险性、或者导致生活方式古板，这种印象也对吸引人才不利。
约恩博士说："真正的问题与感觉有关。人们觉得这些行业每况愈下且没有前途。他们必须看得到这些行业有吸引力，且有长期的发展前景。"
埃森哲(Accenture)的化工业务合伙人雷切尔#巴特尔斯(Rachael Bartels)说："化工行业确实已经不再把自己描绘成有魅力的'性感'行业。从职业选择来看，自上世纪90年代起，该行业的吸引力已开始慢慢消退。很多人在潜意识中都觉得科学和化学领域又脏，气味又难闻。"
这些行业往往无法提供最优秀、最聪明的人才所看重的奖励机制与令人刺激的职业生涯。Celerant Consulting的达格代尔先生说："这类公司中， 有的难以找到有才华的年轻人为其效力，它们往往怪罪自己的行业成熟。这种说法很可笑。(一家公司)要怎样做呢？提供一个精英管理体制和管理流程，允许人们实现自我并快速获得成功。"
许多人会争辩说，在全球市场中，不太可能发生技能危机。但埃森哲公司石油与天然气业务合伙人苏茜#吉尔(Susie Gear)表示，今后5到10年内，这种技术短缺带来的冲击将在能源行业体现出来。
"这是一个战略问题，一个竞争优势问题，"她说， "未来那些成功的公司，就是那些能将人才供需挂钩的公司。"
