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伊拉克股市重建 24岁年轻人掌舵

级别: 管理员
How a 24-Year-Old Got a Job Rebuilding Iraq's Stock Market

At Yale University, Jay Hallen majored in political science, rarely watched financial news stations and didn't follow the stock market.

All of which made the 24-year-old an unlikely pick for the difficult task of rebuilding Iraq's shuttered stock exchange. But Mr. Hallen, a private-sector development officer for the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority, was given the job immediately after arriving in Baghdad in September.

The headquarters of the old Iraqi exchange, where brokers in blue vests scribbled trades on boards, was looted after the war and is now occupied by squatters. Several listed companies no longer exist, and many Iraqi companies' majority shareholders -- Saddam Hussein and his friends and relatives -- are either dead or in prison. A new exchange is supposed to open in temporary quarters next month, but impatient brokers already meet privately in their homes and offices to trade shares.

Mr. Hallen admits that he wound up in Iraq rather by accident. In 2002, he began pursuing a White House job, and though none materialized, he stayed in close contact with the man who interviewed him, Reuben Jeffrey. When Mr. Jeffrey went to Iraq last summer as a senior economic-development adviser, Mr. Hallen e-mailed to ask whether there were any job openings. "Be careful what you wish for," Mr. Jeffrey, who is now an aide to Iraqi administrator Paul Bremer, told him in reply.

A few weeks later, Mr. Hallen got a phone call from a Pentagon personnel officer, who told him he had been given a job in the Coalition Provisional Authority and needed to be in Baghdad in less than a month. "Needless to say, I was in a mild state of shock," he says.


Mr. Hallen, who graduated in 2001, has spent the past few months in a crash course in high finance. He has worked with a team of volunteer financial experts and lawyers from the Securities and Exchange Commission and the New York and Philadelphia stock exchanges to revise and modernize the trading rules and disclosure requirements for the new market. He has created a watchdog agency for the exchange modeled on the SEC, and an association of Iraqi securities brokers. He has met with every Iraqi company that wants to be listed on the new exchange.

The old market would never have been confused with the New York Stock Exchange. It was open just three days a week. Volume was low, and government rules barred prices from fluctuating more than 5% a day in either direction. At its peak, it had about 120 listed companies -- many of them hotels and banks -- and a total capitalization of less than $30 million. The biggest Iraqi companies were state controlled and weren't traded on the exchange.

The market closely tracked America's contentious relationship with Iraq, plummeting in November 1998 when the U.S. threatened air strikes against the country but soaring a few weeks later when the two countries appeared to reach an agreement allowing U.N. inspectors back into the country.

Brokers kept trading even when tensions between the two countries boiled into open conflict. Hassan alDahan was at the exchange when air-raid sirens began blaring at the start of a bombing campaign by U.S. and U.K. warplanes in December 1998. He remembers hearing the roar of planes overhead but says trading continued without interruption. "No one wanted to leave money on the table," Mr. alDahan says.

The market was rising sharply early last year as Iraqis placed bullish bets that the war would benefit their investments. Investors haven't had the chance to test their instincts: The market closed down on March 19, the day U.S. air strikes on Baghdad opened the war, and it has yet to reopen.

Mr. Hallen's most difficult task has been winning and keeping the confidence of Iraqi investors and traders alarmed by his youth and lack of experience in the financial sector. It hasn't been easy.

In early November, Mr. Hallen traveled to Baghdad's Hamra Hotel for a lunch meeting with Luay Nafa Elias, who runs an investment company here. Mr. Elias says he was expecting to meet a middle-age man and therefore was astonished to see the baby-face Mr. Hallen sit down at the table and order a plate of kabobs. "I had thought the Americans would send someone who was at least 50 years old, someone with gray hair," says Mr. Elias.

As the lunch continued, Mr. Elias found himself impressed by Mr. Hallen's confident tone and his repeated promises to quickly open a stock market that is the envy of the Arab world.

Mr. Elias's faith in Mr. Hallen, however, began to evaporate when the market's opening was delayed without explanation, first to the middle of this month and then into February. "Maybe someone older and more experienced could have gotten this done on time," Mr. Elias says.

Mr. Hallen says he understands the frustration but urges traders to be patient. "What they need to understand is that we're not reopening the old Baghdad stock market," he says. "We're building an entirely new one."

Trader Hussain Kubba pointed recently to a wall-size chalkboard in his office showing stock prices from the day before the market closed. "The prices are a fraction of what those shares are worth today, but no one can take advantage of that until Mr. Hallen and the Americans stop dillydallying," he said.

Mr. Hallen says the delays were caused by the difficulties of getting the market's new computer and communications systems up and running. He insists that the market is now on course to reopen next month in temporary space in a Baghdad hotel before moving to its permanent home in a building that once housed a satellite office of the Iraqi intelligence service, a bank branch and the city's finest Indian restaurant.
伊拉克股市重建 24岁年轻人掌舵

杰?哈伦(Jay Hallen)在耶鲁大学读书的时候,专业是政治学,他很少关注财经新闻频道,也从不跟踪股市消息。

这一切使24岁的哈伦不太可能成为承担重建伊拉克股市重任的合适人选,但作为以美国为首的伊拉克临时管理委员会(Coalition Provisional Authority)中一位负责私人部门发展的官员,哈伦在去年9月份一到巴格达后就被委以这一重任。

伊拉克原来的股票交易总部在战后遭到洗劫,现在被一些强占公地的伊拉克人占据了。几家上市公司已经不复存在,许多伊拉克公司的最大股东──萨达姆?侯塞因(Saddam Hussein)及其亲朋好友也都不是死亡就是入狱。原来,经纪商们都是穿著蓝马甲,在股票交易所内的柜台上交易。现在,预计一个新的股票交易所将于2月在临时所在地开业,但迫不及待的经纪商们已经私下里在办公室或家中见面,开始交易股票了。

哈伦承认他来到伊拉克完全是出于偶然。2002年,他首先是谋求在白宫内就职,尽管没有能够如愿,但他仍和面试他的官员鲁本?杰弗里(Reuben Jeffrey)保持著密切的联系。当杰弗里去年夏天到伊拉克就任经济发展高级顾问一职的时候,他收到哈伦的一封电子邮件,询问是否有新的工作机会。杰弗里在回信中告诉哈伦,要对自己希望从事的工作小心留意。杰弗里已经是伊拉克行政长官保罗?布雷默(Paul Bremer)的助手。

几周以后,哈伦接到国防部人事办公室的一个电话,告知他已经在伊拉克临时管理委员会中得到一份工作,要求他必须在不到一个月之内赶赴巴格达。哈伦表示,毫无疑问,他当时有点吃惊。

哈伦毕业于2001年。在过去的几个月中,他曾经参与处理了一桩高级金融破产案,并与一个由美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission, 简称SEC)及纽约、费城证交所的金融专家和律师自愿组成的小组合作,修订和完善了新股市的交易规则和披露要求。他还仿照SEC的模式,为伊拉克股市创建了一个监管机构和一个证券交易商协会。他与计划在新股市上市的每一家伊拉克公司也都举行了会谈。

伊拉克原有的股市显然无法和纽约证券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)相提并论。伊拉克股市每周仅交易3天,成交量很小,政府规定的每日涨跌停板仅为5%。即使是在最鼎盛的时候,上市公司也不过120家左右,大部分是旅馆和银行,总市值不足3,000万美元。伊拉克最大的公司都是政府控制的,不在股市上交易。

伊拉克股市的走势密切反映美伊两国之间的紧张程度。在1998年11月,美国威胁对伊拉克进行空中打击,伊拉克股市暴跌,但几周以后,两国之间看来达成了协议,伊拉克允许联合国核查人员返回伊拉克,这时股市才又上扬。

即使当美伊两国之间的矛盾升级为公开对抗的时候,伊拉克经纪商仍在继续交易。在1998年12月,美英战机开始轰炸伊拉克,空袭警报响彻巴格达街头,但哈桑?阿尔达汉(Hassan alDahan)仍留在巴格达证交所内。他记得,当时他听到了头顶上飞机的轰鸣声,但他表示股票交易要继续进行。阿尔达汉说,没有人愿意把钱留在桌子上。

在去年年初,伊拉克股市大幅上扬,因为伊拉克人认为战争将使他们的投资受益,所以看涨。但是,投资者并没有机会去检验他们的判断:3月19日美国空袭巴格达,拉开了战争的序幕,股市因此关闭,迄今为止仍没有重开。 哈伦面临的最艰巨的任务是:如何赢得并保持伊拉克投资者和交易商的信任,他的年轻以及在金融领域的经验不足都令伊拉克人感到怀疑。这并非易事。

在去年11月初,哈伦来到巴格达的哈姆拉酒店(Hamra Hotel),与路阿伊?纳法?伊莱亚斯(Luay Nafa Elias)共进午餐,后者在巴格达经营一家投资公司。伊莱亚斯表示,他原以为会见到一个中年人,因此当他看见长著娃娃脸的哈伦在桌边坐下,并叫了一盘烤肉串的时候,他感到莫名的惊诧。伊莱亚斯说,他原以为美国会派来一个50岁以上、头发灰白的人。 在共进午餐的过程中,伊莱亚斯对哈伦充满信心的语调留下了深刻印象,哈伦不断承诺很快就会重开股市,并会让它成为阿拉伯世界的骄傲。

但是,当伊拉克股市在没有任何解释的情况下被延迟重开的时候,伊莱亚斯对哈伦的信心开始烟消云散了。股市重开的日期首先被推迟到1月中旬,然后又拖到2月份。伊莱亚斯表示,也许换一个年龄大一点、更有经验的人能把这项任务及时地完成。

哈伦表示,他理解交易员们的挫折感,但希望他们耐心一点。他说,这些交易员们应该理解,现在不是在重开巴格达股市,而是要建设一个全新的股票市场。

近日,交易员侯塞因?库巴(Hussain Kubba)指著办公室里一块有墙壁大小的黑板,展示了自股市关闭前一天以来的所有股票价格。他说,价格反映的只是那些股票今日价值的一小部份,但在哈伦和美国人不再磨磨蹭蹭之前,没有人能利用这些价值。

哈伦表示,股市被延迟重开是因为在安装和试用股市的新电脑和通讯系统时遇到了困难。他强调,股市现在已经准备就绪,将于下月在临时所在地重新开业。股市临时位于巴格达一家旅馆内,以后将迁往其永久性地址,那座大楼里曾经有伊拉克情报部门的卫星办公室、一家银行和全巴格达最好的印度餐馆
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