Investors Face Up to Bird Flu
Pestilence has returned to Asia. But this time it isn't sending foreign investors running for the exits -- at least not yet.
Many share investors say they believe that the H5N1 avian influenza that is spreading through Asia, pounding the continent's multibillion-dollar poultry industry and causing people to worry, is a more manageable problem than the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome that battered the region in 2003.
In fact, many say any weakness in Asia's stock markets on fears of a bird-flu pandemic might be a buying opportunity. But if the avian flu mutates into a form that can be spread among humans, the economic damage could be severe -- possibly globally -- and all bets are off, investors say.
Tuesday brought news of the first avian flu cases among birds in China, where government foot-dragging and poor public-health infrastructure made battling SARS a particular challenge last year (see related article). But China hasn't yet reported human cases of bird flu, and there are still no known instances in the region of people spreading the disease to other people.
"Our stance is very different from when SARS happened," says Anthony Muh, head of investments for Citigroup Asset Management in Hong Kong, which has about $14.9 billion under management in Asia excluding Japan. "The concern and fear factor is much less versus SARS."
Many of the investors who were scared away from Asia by SARS are smarting from missing out on the rally that sent stock markets soaring during the second half of 2003. This time, investors want to avoid making the same mistake and -- at least so far -- are taking a cautious approach to selling too quickly.
Monday, the first business day after the Lunar New Year holidays, saw some selling in the stock markets of flu-affected nations, but Tuesday saw a partial rebound. The most dramatic movements were in the Thai stock market, which fell nearly 4% Monday but recovered 2% Tuesday.
Though SARS was a complete mystery to experts when it first appeared last year, some investors are reassured by the fact that avian influenza isn't a new phenomenon. Scientists first identified it a century ago in Italy, and many governments have learned to contain it. In 1997, an outbreak of the H5N1 bird flu in Hong Kong -- which killed six people -- was ended when all of the city's 1.5 million chickens were slaughtered.
David Semple, fund manager at Van Eck Emerging Markets Fund in New York, says of the avian flu outbreak, "economically, this is not a big deal, but psychologically, it may be...this isn't SARS. You can kill all the chickens."
Indeed, investors expect the governments of afflicted countries, helped by organizations such as the World Health Organization, to act decisively and aggressively to cull sick chickens and to vigilantly monitor signs of new outbreaks.
And the global and regional background is far different than early 2003, when investors starting learning about SARS while already feeling jittery over geopolitical and economic uncertainties as the U.S. headed to war with Iraq. With a global economic rebound now in place and memories of the sharp post-SARS snapback fresh in mind, investors this time appear more ready to stay the course.
"We know that globally this year most economic forecasts are for a synchronized growth" among major markets, says Mr. Muh of Citigroup. "Even if domestic demand is hurt in Asia, the export segment should continue reasonably well."
Still, the past few days have spawned a series of rapid developments with the bird-flu outbreak and many unanswered questions. "The key sources of confusion are about which strains are in which countries and about how the virus is mutating," says Christopher Palmer, portfolio manager at Gartmore Alphagen Pictor Fund, a London-based, emerging-markets hedge fund.
Some investors have opted to sell out of companies they think will be most affected by a dramatic escalation of the outbreak that could keep many people at home and out of airplanes, hotels and shopping malls.
Thai poultry-related companies have been battered this month, first by rumors of a bird-flu problem and then by Friday's confirmation by the Thai government that bird flu had hit the country. While Charoen Pokphand Foods rose 3.4% Tuesday, it is still down 18% this month. GFPT has fallen 30% year-to-date.
Even poultry companies in Malaysia, where bird flu hasn't been detected so far, have been hit. Leong Hup Holdings fell 15% during the past two days, while Ayamas Food dropped 2% over the same period. In trading Monday and Tuesday, Thai Airways International fell 4.6%.
Thailand, the world's fourth-largest poultry exporter and also Asia's best-performing market last year with gain of nearly 120%, has borne the brunt of investors' concerns. However, the direct economic impact of lost poultry exports and domestic sales will be small, about 0.1% of gross domestic product, according to a report by J.P. Morgan Chase, which also said the impact on Thailand's tourism industry, which accounted for 6.5% of GDP in 2003, is likely to be muted.
"The whole market is selling down," says Sriyan Pietersz, head of research for J.P. Morgan in Bangkok, in what he says seems like "a knee-jerk reaction" to fears of bird flu. "Should the markets fall further, we should see some interesting bargains for foreign investors." Foreigners have been net sellers of the Thai market since November.
Tuesday's rise in Bangkok's benchmark index might be a sign bargain hunting has emerged. The Thai stock market is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 14.3 times 2004 estimated earnings, compared with 15.1 times for Malaysia and 18 times for Singapore, Mr. Pietersz says.
"During this current crisis, if you'd like to call it that, stocks with credible growth prospects, suffering no impact from the virus, are trading sideways or going down," says Lance Depew, portfolio manager for the Thai Focused Equity Fund, a Bangkok-based hedge fund with $250 million under management. "The market selling off a few percent is healthy. I wouldn't be surprised to see it reach new highs after this."
Mr. Depew likes Thoresen Thai Agencies, the country's largest shipping group, and Advanced Info Services, the country's largest cellular-services provider. During the past two days, Thoresen retreated 2.7% and AIS declined 3.5%. Mr. Depew is a shareholder of both companies.
Another sector garnering investors' attention is Thailand's property companies, which also have been hit during the latest market sell-off. "Given that property in Thailand has been increasing in value and homebuilding is extremely strong, I don't see any reason why any kind of agricultural outbreak would keep urban Thai people from buying a home," says Mr. Palmer at Gartmore, who suggests looking at Noble Development, Golden Land Property Development and Land & Houses, which have fallen 6.5%, 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively, over the past two days.
Mr. Palmer, who owns shares of Noble Development, says, "These companies develop apartment buildings. They may have been hit because some think the feel-good factor will be out of Thailand. But I don't think this flu issue is going to hold back the Thai market."
禽流感将引发股市逢低买盘？
疫情再次袭击亚洲。但这一次外国投资者并未惊慌四散，至少目前还没有。
许多股市投资者都表示，H5N1型禽流感要比去年亚洲地区爆发的非典型肺炎(SARS)疫情更容易控制得多。这种禽流感病毒目前正在亚洲地区扩散，给这一地区数十亿美元之巨的家禽养殖业带来了沉重打击，人们对此担忧不已。
实际上，许多人都认为，亚洲各国股市因禽流感恐慌而出现的跌势可能会是一个逢低买进的机会。但他们也承认，一旦禽流感开始在人群中传播，经济损失会变得极为严重，而且很可能对全球经济造成打击，后果不堪设想。
周二中国报告了第一例死于禽流感的禽只病例，但尚未发现人类感染禽流感的病例。目前在整个亚洲地区也未发现禽流感病毒在人群中传播的现象。花旗资产管理(Citigroup Asset Management)的投资业务主管安东尼?穆(Anthony Muh)表示，这与当年SARS爆发时完全不同，人们的担忧和关注程度要小得多。该公司负责管理日本以外亚洲地区大约149亿美元的资产。
去年许多投资者因SARS疫情产生的惊慌而纷纷撤离亚洲金融市场，从而错失了下半年股市大幅反弹的好机会。但他们这次已经从中汲取了教训，不想重蹈覆辙，而且至少在目前，他们对于迅速抛售仍然保持谨慎。
周一是许多亚洲市场度过农历新年假期后恢复交易的第一天，股市涌现了一些禽流感担忧引发的抛盘，但周二就收复了部分失地。波动最大的是泰国股市，周一跌幅接近4%，周二则反弹2%。
SARS去年首度爆发时对医学专家来说是一个彻底的谜团，而禽流感却不是什么新鲜事物了。一些投资者也因此感到安心。科学家们早在一个世纪以前就在意大利确诊了禽流感，许多国家的政府也明了该如何控制疫情扩散。1997年、H5N1型禽流感在香港爆发，导致六人死亡，但在全市150万只鸡全部被扑杀后疫情终止。
Van Eck Emerging Markets Fund驻纽约的基金经理大卫?森普尔(David Semple)表示，从经济角度而言，禽流感爆发不是什么大事，但从心理角度来看也许是。但禽流感不是SARS，屠宰所有禽类这个办法是行之有效的。
实际上，投资者认为，在世界卫生组织(World Health Organization)等机构的协助下，爆发禽流感的那些国家将采取积极果断的措施，屠宰所有染病禽类并严密监控新疫情的爆发。
此外，当前的全球和地区形势已较2003年年初时大为改观。去年投资者刚刚开始知晓SARS时，已经对伊拉克战争爆发在即引起的地缘政局和经济前景的不确定性极为担忧了。而现在，全球经济已经开始复苏，而且投资者对SARS疫情过后金融市场大幅反弹的表现还记忆犹新。看起来，这一次投资者似乎更愿意静观其变。 花旗的穆说，今年全球经济展望的主题是各主要经济体协同增长。即使亚洲国家国内需求受损，出口业务也会继续攀升。
不过，在过去几天里，禽流感疫情迅速蔓延，还带来了许多未解的难题。Gartmore Alphagen Pictor Fund投资组合经理克里斯托弗?帕尔梅(Christopher Palmer)说，问题之一是在不同国家蔓延的禽流感病毒具体有什么不同；其二就是病毒是如何变异的。Gartmore Alphagen Pictor Fund是伦敦的一家新兴市场对冲基金。
一些投资者选择他们认为风险最高的股票进行抛售，以防禽流感疫情一旦恶化，人们会被迫呆在家中或是避免乘坐飞机、入住酒店及涉足商场购物。 泰国家禽养殖相关类股本月受挫最为严重，首先是因为禽流感的传言，然后就是上周五泰国政府证实国内发生了禽流感。泰国的Charoen Pokphand Foods周二虽然上涨了3.4%，但本月已累计下挫18%；GFPT今年迄今为止则下跌了30%。
即使在尚未发现疫情的马来西亚，家禽养殖企业的股票也被拖累走低。Leong Hup Holdings在过去两个交易日内暴跌15%，Ayamas Food下跌2%。仅周一和周二两天，泰国国际航空公司(Thai Airways International)就下跌了4.6%。
泰国是全球第四大禽类产品出口国，去年因累计飙升近120%而成为全亚洲最强市场的当地股市也遭到投资者担忧的打击。然而，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase)认为，因禽类产品出口和国内销售减少而产生的直接经济损失会很小，仅占泰国国内生产总值(GDP)的0.1%左右；而在泰国2003年GDP中占6.5%的旅游业也不会受到太大影响。
摩根大通驻曼谷的研究主管彼得斯(Sriyan Pietersz)说，市场整体走势依然向下，但这似乎是禽流感担忧引发的条件反射式反应。一旦股市继续下挫，就会有一些外国投资者表现出逢低买进的兴趣。从去年11月以来，外国投资者一直是泰国股市的净卖家。
泰国证交所指数周二的收高可能就是逢低买盘开始出现的迹象。彼得斯说，泰国股市基于上市公司2004年预期收益的本益比约为14.3倍，而马来西亚股市为15.1倍，新加坡股市则是18倍。
Thai Focused Equity Fund投资组合经理兰斯?迪皮尤(Lance Depew)表示，如果非要说是"危机"的话，那么在当前这次"危机"中，那些具备良好增长前景、未受疫情影响的股票正在进行横盘整理或者走低。他还表示，股市略有下跌很正常，随后可能会升至新的高点。这家曼谷的对冲基金管理著2.5亿美元的资金。
迪皮尤看好泰国最大的运输集团Thoresen Thai Agencies和最大的移动服务供应商Advanced Info Services这两只股票。过去两个交易日中，Thoresen下跌2.7%；AIS下跌3.5%。迪皮尤均持有这两家公司的股票。
另外一个引起投资者关注的行业是泰国地产业，这些公司的股票也随著近期的股市下滑而走低。Gartmore的帕尔梅说，泰国地产业价值持续增长，房屋建筑的增长势头非常强劲。农业领域的问题不会成为阻止城市居民购房的理由。他建议投资者关注Noble Development、Golden Land Property Development和Land & Houses这三只股票，它们在过去三天内分别下跌了6.5%、2.5%和1.7%。
