Mad-Cow Case In U.S. Shows Gaps in System
The first U.S. case of mad-cow disease almost certainly was found by fluke and will force agricultural officials, who have said the discovery vindicated their monitoring of the nation's beef industry, to implement an expensive overhaul of the nation's cattle-screening program.
The discovery has cast a shadow over the economic health of rural America and created wide concern about the safety of an American staple. The price of beef and the publicly traded stock of beef purveyors took a beating since the case was announced late Tuesday. The nation's trading partners imposed immediate import bans on U.S. beef, a product that has long been a symbol of U.S. vitality.
One of the biggest impacts will be on the beef industry and its regulators. The finding that a single Holstein in Washington state had contracted the brain-wasting disease instantly obviated the nation's screening system, because it had been based on the assumption that the nation's herds weren't infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy, commonly known as mad-cow disease, a fatal condition that can cross species to humans.
U.S. procedures called for screening barely one of every 1,700 cows slaughtered, a method meant to show that the nation's cattle herd remained free of the disease.
That approach hit its limit Tuesday, when U.S. Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman stunned cattle ranchers with the announcement that mad-cow disease, which had devastated beef industries in Britain and Japan, had reached the U.S. A brain sample from a cow pulled off the slaughter line at a processor in Moses Lake, Wash., had been found to harbor the disease.
The appearance of one case of mad-cow disease in the U.S. almost certainly means that others will be discovered. Because the likely source of the infection is something that the cow was fed, it means that other cattle it lived among had access to the same contaminated material.
"It's very hard to imagine a scenario in which only one animal was exposed," said William D. Hueston, who heads the Center for Animal Health and Food Safety at the University of Minnesota and is one of America's top mad-cow experts. "What we don't know is whether we're talking about a dozen or two dozen" cattle, he added.
MAD-COW HITS THE U.S.
See full coverage of the first case of mad-cow disease in the U.S.
o Read the transcript of a briefing on discovery of mad-cow disease in the U.S.
o See a chart from the World Organization for Animal Health, a European body that analyzes veterinary data, detailing the number of reported cases world-wide.
The challenge for U.S. agriculture officials and ranchers now is to determine whether the affliction affected only that cow or has spread broadly.
The only certain way to reassure consumers -- and the long list of foreign buyers now shutting their borders to U.S. beef -- would be to test every cow slaughtered. That measure -- currently implemented in Japan -- would conservatively add hundreds of millions of dollars of additional cost to the low-margin $50 billion beef industry. The cost of that measure to consumers could be offset by the fallen price of beef tainted by the threat of mad-cow disease.
Many agriculture experts say more testing is needed, and the way the Washington state cow was discovered helps explain why. The 4-year-old cow only came to the attention of federal inspectors at a meat plant in Moses Lake because she had injured her pelvic canal by giving birth to an unusually big calf. That suggests that this cow was tested only as a fluke, not because it was exhibiting symptoms of mad cow.
It is "one of the $64,000 questions" whether the cow would have been tested for the disease if it hadn't been injured through a totally unrelated event, a difficult pregnancy, said Ron DeHaven, chief veterinarian of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
A federal veterinarian at the meatpacking plant in Washington state had cleared the cow for human consumption on Dec. 9 after seeing no outward signs of mad-cow disease, yet sent a routine brain sample to a federal lab in Ames, Iowa, where it tested positive Dec. 22. Laboratory pathologists in Britain Thursday confirmed those results from a sample sent them by the U.S. government.
Federal investigators will probably never know whether they were just lucky to find the infected cow: Its carcass has been destroyed.
"Before Dec. 22, what we had was a surveillance program because we had no evidence to suggest we had the disease" in the U.S., said Dr. DeHaven, the USDA chief veterinarian. "Now it's time to consider whether it's appropriate to increase testing."
Establishing a more stringent testing program will likely be necessary to win back the trust of Japan, South Korea, Mexico and other trading partners that immediately banned U.S. beef imports after the announcement. Indeed, a Japanese ministry official already has expressed the hope that the U.S. will test for the disease in every cow slaughtered. Exports account for only 10% of the nation's beef sales, but for the world's largest beef producer that 10% represents $3 billion a year. And the disappearance of that market would likely create a price-depressing glut that could send the nation's agricultural industry back into the long recession from which it only recently emerged.
Meanwhile, U.S. stock and commodity markets are being roiled by the discovery of the afflicted cow, which came from a dairy herd in Mabton, Wash. Even before the import bans take effect, plunging cattle prices are jeopardizing the budding recovery in the U.S. farm economy.
"This is a very scary situation," said Jay Wolf, a rancher in Bartlett, Neb., who had hoped to cash in this week on what had been record-high cattle prices by selling 200 of his animals. Now he can't find a buyer. "The boom is over," said Mr. Wolf.
Beef represents the single largest segment of U.S. agriculture, accounting for roughly 20 cents of every agricultural dollar.
So far, American consumers seem to be one group that isn't panicking, even though a few supermarket chains including Albertson's are warning that meat from the stricken cow may have reached meat counters in their stores in the northwestern U.S. The closure of most of the nation's restaurants Thursday for Christmas makes reading consumer confidence difficult, but there is little sign yet they are broadly rejecting beef.
Still, the impact of one cow is likely to be dramatic because she introduces a horrific and incurable disease to U.S. shores. People who eat beef products accidentally laced with the nerve tissue of infected cattle, such as processed meats, can catch the human equivalent of the disease, which eats holes in the victim's brain.
The reason why trading partners from Japan to Russia slammed shut their borders to U.S. beef in recent days is that they are concerned more cases of mad cow will be found in the U.S. Only four of the 23 other countries that have found an animal with mad-cow disease have found no other cases. The U.S. herd of 96 million cattle is one of the world's largest.
America's setback could benefit Brazil, which has emerged as a global beef power in the past four years. Brazilian beef exports have nearly tripled since 2000 to a projected 1.4 million tons this year. Brazil's emergence has been propelled by a competitive exchange rate, sanitary problems in neighboring cattle countries such as Argentina and big investments by Brazilian producers in genetic breeding programs. Brazil has 170 million cattle, much of which are raised on grass. Animal feed that included the remains of infected cattle has been linked to other outbreaks in the past.
Now the mad-cow scare in the U.S. could open new horizons for producers in Brazil, Australia and perhaps other countries. "It's a big opportunity for Brazil to increase exports of beef to several countries, including the Americans and Japanese," Brazilian Agriculture Minister Roberto Rodrigues told the O Estado de Sao Paulo newspaper.
The danger of losing market share will force the U.S. to convince its trading partners of the safety of American cattle, and that will require increased testing. The USDA's Dr. DeHaven wouldn't comment on the government's plans, but there are many holes to close. While the U.S. has been more aggressive at dealing with mad cow than most countries that have yet to discover it, it does far less than nations that have found the disease in their herds.
Among other things, the U.S. has yet to require the testing of cattle before they are slaughtered or to even ban the consumption of the material that harbors the disease, which is the brain and spinal cord. Such materials can slip into processed meats, including bologna, hot dogs and sausages. Everything from the way cattle are killed in meatpacking plants to what happens to their remains might well change if the Mabton cow isn't an isolated case.
Since finding its first afflicted animal in 2001, Japan has been testing every animal slaughtered and has since confirmed nine cases, including some cattle that were far younger than the age most scientists thought cattle could test positive for the disease.
About 20,500 of the 35 million U.S. cattle slaughtered this year were tested for mad-cow disease. The meatpacking industry has resisted the idea of testing all cattle because of the expense, and food-safety regulators have long agreed with them.
Based on the European Union's experience, the cost of a comprehensive mad-cow testing program can be quite high. In the EU, all cattle over the age of 30 months are tested before they enter the food chain.
Bruno Oesch, chief executive of Prionics AG, a mad-cow testing firm in Zurich, figures that it would cost the U.S. roughly $300 million to implement a similar program.
There have been other costs associated with mad cow in Europe, and especially in Britain, where the disease was first found. They include the costs of destroying animals in herds where infected animals were found, the costs of incinerating animals, and government subsidies to ranchers and dairy farmers.
Britain destroyed several million head of cattle in the 1980s and 1990s to control its mad-cow epidemic. Yet hundreds of thousands of infected cattle probably entered its food supply. So far, 137 Britons have died from the disease, which in humans it called variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease.
Scientists are generally in agreement that the appearance of mad-cow disease in the U.S. can't be anything on the scale of what happened to Britain. For one thing, the U.S. has adopted measures over the past several years that are designed to prevent the widespread transmission of the disease if it ever did arrive here.
Cattle in Britain, and then throughout Europe, caught the disease by eating feed contaminated with processed remains of infected cattle. The scrap parts of cattle were recycled as a cheap source of protein. In the U.S., the cattle industry mostly turned to an abundant soybean crop as the source of protein for their herds. The Food and Drug Administration banned using the remains of cattle, goats and sheep in any rations made for cud-chewing animals.
But there are gaps in the six-year-old feeding ban. The FDA didn't ban the use of cattle remains in the manufacture of feed for animals such as hogs and chicken. While those animals aren't thought to catch the disease, there is little to stop an unscrupulous farmer from giving rations designed for hogs and chickens to cattle.
The FDA struggled for years to get full compliance from feed manufacturers. At least one feed mill in Washington state has run afoul in the past with the FDA for violating the ban on using ruminant material in livestock feed. In July, X-Cel Feeds Inc. of Tacoma reached a consent decree with the federal government. An official of X-Cel couldn't be reached for comment, but investigators so far apparently don't think a connection with the Mabton cow is likely.
Since the government's announcement of the mad-cow case on Tuesday, federal investigators have swarmed into Washington state to begin the arduous task of tracking down what the cow ate during its life, as well as the diets of its herd mates.
Investigators have learned so far that the cow spent the last two years of its life near Mabton, which is in southern Washington, on a large-scale dairy operation that milks a total of 4,000 cows at two locations. The owner of the Sunny Dene farm is Bill Wavrin, a well-respected veterinarian in Mapton. He couldn't be reached for comment.
美国疯牛病病例暴露体系漏洞
几乎可以肯定，美国首例疯牛病病例的发现纯属侥幸，这将迫使美国农业部官员对美国牛肉检验体系进行成本高昂的全面改革。
疯牛病惊现美国给美国的农业经济投下了阴影，并引发了人们对美国食品安全的普遍担忧。自从周二晚间爆出疯牛病消息以来，美国牛肉价格以及牛肉制品商类股票价格一泻千里。美国贸易伙伴在消息发布后旋即对美国牛肉实施进口禁令。
受影响最大的将是美国的牛肉产业及监管机构。华盛顿州发现疯牛病病例令美国的检验体系顿显苍白，此前，人们一直认为美国牛群没有受到这种可传染给人类的致命疾病的感染。 根据美国的检验程序，在每1,700头被屠宰的牛中，只有1头牛需要接受检验。该检验方式产生的表面结果就是：美国的牛没有感染任何疾病。
周二，当美国农业部长Ann Veneman宣布发现疯牛病病例这一令全美畜牧场主震惊的消息时，这种检验方式的缺陷暴露在世人的眼前。横扫英国和日本牛肉产业的疯牛病登陆美国。
美国发现一例疯牛病病例几乎肯定意味著将有更多疯牛病病例被发现。由于病原可能来自于养牛的饲料，可以推断，与这头牛一同被饲养的牛都接触到了这种问题饲料。
明尼苏达大学(University of Minnesot)动物健康与食品安全中心(Center for Animal Health and Food Safety)的主管William D. Hueston表示："不可想像只有一头牛食用了问题饲料。"Hueston是美国研究疯牛病的顶尖专家。他补充说，"我们现在还不知道的是，究竟有十几头还是数十头牛食用了这种饲料。"
美国农业部官员和牧场主面临的挑战是：确定是否只有这一头牛受到感染，还是已经发生大规模传染。
当前，安抚消费者以及众多外国买家的唯一方法是对每一头被屠宰的牛进行检验，这也是日本现在采纳的方法。据保守估计，这将给利润微薄总产值为500亿美元的美国牛肉产业增加数亿美元的额外成本。这一措施给消费者带来的成本将被因疯牛病恐慌导致的牛肉价格下跌所抵销。
许多农业专家表示还需要进行更多的检验，首例疯牛病的发现过程有助于解释为何需要更多的检验。这头4岁大的牛只所以会引起Moses Lake牛肉厂联邦检验官员的注意是因为它在生产一头个头异常大的小牛时损伤了骨盆管。这意味著，对这头牛进行检验纯属偶然，并不是因为它显示出疯牛病的症状。
美国农业部首席兽医Ron DeHaven说，如果不是因为一起毫不相干的事件导致这头牛受伤，对这头牛做疯牛病检验的可能性几乎为零。
DeHaven说，"在12月22日检验出疯牛病之前，我们只有一个监控体系，因为没有证据显示美国存在疯牛病。现在，是时候考虑是否需要增加检验了。"
建立一个更加严格的检验体系对于赢回日本、韩国、墨西哥等贸易伙伴的信任可能是必要的，这些贸易伙伴在美国传出疯牛病消息后立即宣布了对美国牛肉的进口禁令。实际上，日本一位政府官员已经表示希望美国对每一头屠宰的牛都进行检验。美国出口牛肉仅占牛肉总销售额的10%，但是对美国这个世界最大的牛肉生产国来说，这一比例意味著每年30亿美元的产值。出口市场的消失可能会导致牛肉价格的压低，由此使刚刚复苏的美国农业再度陷入长期衰退之中。
与此同时，疯牛病消息打击了美国股票和商品。即使在进口禁令生效前，暴跌的牛肉价格已经开始对美国农业经济尚处在萌芽中的复苏构成威胁。
美国内布拉斯加州Bartlett的一位牧场主Jay Wolf说，"当前的形势非常可怕。"他原打算本周趁著牛肉价格涨至历史高点出售200头牲畜。但现在一个买家都没有。他说，"好时光已经结束。"
牛肉产业是美国农业领域中最大的一块产业，占农业总产值的大约20%。
到目前为止，美国消费者似乎是还没有表现出恐慌的一个群体，尽管许多超级市场警告染病牛肉可能已经出现在美国东北部连锁店的肉类柜台上。
但发现疯牛病病例仍可能会产生巨大影响，因为这意味著一种可怕的不可治愈的疾病已经来到了美国本土。食用染病牛肉神经组织的人有可能会患上库贾氏病(Creutzfeldt-Jakob)。
美国贸易伙伴禁止进口美国牛肉的原因是他们担忧美国将发现更多的疯牛病病例。在其他23个曾发现一例疯牛病病例的国家中，只有4个国家没有再发现新病例。
美国共饲养9,600万头牛，数量居世界前列。
美国发现疯牛病可能将令巴西获益，在过去4年，巴西一跃成为世界主要的牛肉供应商。巴西的牛肉出口数量从2000年以来增长了近两倍，预计今年将达到140万吨。 巴西牛肉产业的迅速崛起主要归因于其极具竞争性的外汇汇率、阿根廷等邻国出现卫生问题以及巴西生产商对基因饲养项目投入巨资。巴西共喂养了1.7亿头牛。
现在，美国的疯牛病恐慌为巴西、澳大利亚等国家的牛肉产商带来了新的契机，巴西农业部长Roberto Rodrigues对O Estado de Sao Paulo报表示，"这是巴西向美国和日本等几个国家增加牛肉出口的大好机会。"
美国今年共屠宰了3,500万头牛，其中20,500头牛做了疯牛病检验。肉类包装行业一直拒绝对所有牛肉进行检验，因为很长时间以来监管机构与他们就成本和食品安全问题达成了一致。
根据欧盟的经验，全面进行疯牛病检验的成本将极为高昂。在欧盟，所有年龄在30个月以上的牛在进入食品供应链之前都要进行检验。
苏黎世的疯牛病检验机构Prionics AG的首席执行长Bruno Oesch认为，美国执行这样一个相似的计划将耗资约3亿美元。
在欧洲，特别是在首次发现疯牛病的英国，还有其他一些成本与疯牛病相关。这些成本包括宰杀疯牛病病例所在的牛群、将这些牛尸体火化以及政府对牧场主和牛奶场场主进行补贴。
科学家普遍认为，美国此次出现的疯牛病不可能发展到英国的那种规模。其中一个原因是，美国在过去几年已经采取了预防疯牛大规模传播的措施。
