China Offers Sharp Response To New U.S. Textile Restrictions
New U.S. restrictions on imports of Chinese textiles brought a sharp response from China, which postponed an America-bound trade mission and threatened a possible appeal to the World Trade Organization -- moves that could exacerbate tension in trade relations.
A delegation of 30 Chinese officials and industry executives led by a vice minister of commerce scotched its mission just hours before it was to depart Wednesday to sign orders for a range of U.S. agricultural products. The stated reason, according to China's Ministry of Commerce and U.S. agribusiness and trade-association executives informed of the decision, was problems in scheduling and obtaining visas. But Chinese officials privately said the decision was made in retaliation for the Bush administration's move Tuesday to impose quotas on imports of Chinese bras, bathrobes and knit wear. "They postponed as an initial response to the textile quotas," said a Chinese official in an agency involved in planning the mission.
One immediate impact: The delegation's signing ceremony planned for Friday in Chicago was put off with no indication that it will be rescheduled. One contract to be signed was for Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. executives said. Those orders are likely to go through soon whether or not the delegation eventually travels to the U.S., the executives said, because China faces a shortage of soybean meal for its crushing plants and has few alternative suppliers at this time of year. But the delegation's expected purchases of wheat, other commodities and chicken parts are now in question, the executives said.
Beyond those sectors, China's response seems set to produce wider fallout: economically and on recently smooth -- if always-tenuous -- political relations with the U.S. The postponed buying mission, one of four scheduled for this month, was intended to alleviate tensions ahead of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's planned visit to Washington in December for wide-ranging talks. By engaging in back-and-forth trade actions, the U.S. and China risk injecting politics into the robust economic ties that normally are the bedrock of the relationship.
The latest U.S. salvo in an increasingly nasty trade fight with China could have implications not only in mainland China but for the rest of Asia's garment industry, which makes everything from Nike Inc. sportswear to bras for Limited Brands Inc.'s Victoria's Secret. The clothing trade powers some of the region's least-developed economies: Almost 80% of Cambodia's exports are clothing, for example, and 71% of those garments go to the U.S., according to Mekong Capital, a private-equity fund based in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Before the U.S. move, Asian garment makers and international buyers had been girding for the end of quotas on other Chinese textiles in a little more than a year. Many companies had planned to move even more of their operations from other Asian countries to China to take advantage of a low-cost labor force and other favorable business conditions. The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that by 2005 or 2006, big garment buyers would cut by half the number of countries from which they purchase goods, mainly because of the expiration of China's quotas.
But the new U.S. quotas on Chinese goods, which could be extended for years, mean some other Asian countries could get a reprieve, albeit a temporary one.
Such nations, particularly those already in the World Trade Organization, "will look relatively more attractive" as production bases, said Robert Z. Lawrence, a professor of international trade and investment at Harvard University in the U.S. "If you're one of these textile suppliers, you're going to want to diversify your sources."
In Hong Kong, though, where many companies do textile trade in China, news of the quota imposition caused shares in some big Hong Kong textile makers that do business in China to plummet Wednesday. Texwinca Holdings Ltd. slid 6.3%, while Fountain Set Holdings Ltd. fell 3.5%. The companies make knitted fabric, much of it in China.
Though the U.S. import quotas affect only a small range of Chinese goods whose customs value for the year ended Sept. 30 was $648 million -- a fraction of overall trade -- and cap their growth at 7.5% a year, the textile industry carries outsized importance in Chinese politics. The industry is a test case for government changes, undergoing painful restructuring and shedding millions of workers over the past decade in a bid to make the sector globally competitive.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Donald Evans said that many Chinese textile companies were still state owned and unfairly subsidized. The U.S. textile industry is pushing for a broad deal that would limit growth of Chinese textiles and apparel exports to the U.S. through 2008. Mr. Evans called such a deal an "option" which the U.S. would be "happy to discuss" with China.
In recent months, the Bush administration has criticized Beijing for unfair practices that Washington says have taken manufacturing jobs from the U.S. and underpin a trade deficit with China that is projected to top $120 billion this year. Until now, Beijing hasn't budged on the larger policies Washington has taken issue with -- China's currency peg to the U.S. dollar and restrictive regulations on market access that the U.S. says violate Beijing's commitments to the WTO.
However, the U.S. pressure the Chinese leadership in a bind. Beijing sees American trade and investment as crucial to the Chinese economy and Washington's goodwill as helpful internationally. At the same time, Mr. Wen faces domestic constraints from businesses directly affected by the latest U.S. trade action and from a population and officialdom generally skeptical about whether China will benefit from the WTO global trade order.
In the seaside port of Qingdao, Qingdao Nannan Co., China's largest manufacturer of bras, was sent reeling by the Bush administration's import restrictions. The company, a Sino-Korean joint venture, makes bras for Victoria's Secret, Maidenform Inc. and Target Corp.'s retail outlets. Its sales to the U.S. soared to $10 million in the first 10 months this year, twice the total for all of 2002. Now, the U.S. restrictions are forcing the company to reassess plans to expand and could cause layoffs, said Yu Yantao, head of Qingdao Nannan's foreign trade department. "This is unfair to us," said Mr. Yu.
Industry groups called for retaliation, with the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles likening the U.S. quotas to measures suited for a "trade war." Chamber Vice Chairman Cao Xinyu said, "we want to know more details about the new quotas so we can come up with further measures."
One sign of whether Washington and Beijing are committed to limiting any wider damage to relations could come later this month. A coming delegation -- to purchase telecommunications and electric-power equipment -- could be postponed. Two delegations already visited the U.S. last week, signing agreements for Boeing Co. airplanes, General Electric Co. jet engines and automobile spare parts potentially valued at $6 billion.
中美贸易关系日益紧张
美国对进口中国纺织品实施了新的贸易限制后，中国迅速作出反应，推迟了一个访美贸易采购团的行程，并威胁可能会向世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization, 简称WTO)申诉。这些都会使得两国贸易关系愈加紧张。
由中国商务部(Ministry of Commerce)一位副部长领导的贸易代表团在周三启程前数小时宣布推迟出发，这个由30位中方官员和业内高层管理人士组成的代表团原定在访美期间签署一系列美国农产品采购订单。据商务部称，推迟启程时间是因为行程的调整以及申办签证等问题，这也是美国农业企业和贸易协会高层管理人士得知的理由。但中方官员私下表示，这是对布什政府(Bush administration)周二决定向从中国进口的胸衣、袍服和针织品实施配额管理决定的报复行为。安排这次行程的某国家机构的一位官员表示，这是对美国纺织品配额决定的初步反应。
推迟行程最直接的影响就是，计划周五在芝加哥举行的代表团签字仪式被推迟，目前尚无迹象表明是否会重新安排仪式时间。美国产业界的管理人士称，双方原计划在仪式上签署一项购买美国大豆的合约。他还表示，无论这个代表团最终能否成行，双方依然有望签署这些合约，因为中国目前豆粉供应紧缺，而且一时也难以找到其他供应渠道。但是，原计划购买小麦、其他商品和鸡肉的协议能否签署尚难预料。
除了上述这些领域之外，中国作出的反应可能还会波及更广。不但是经济领域，就是双方脆弱的政治关系近来缓和的趋势也会受到打击。本月原计划有四个采购代表团启程，目的就是在今年12月中国总理温家宝访美，并展开一系列磋商之前缓和双方的紧张局势。紧密的经济联系通常是建立良好关系的基石，但美中贸易关系却起伏不定，还添加了很多政治因素。
美国实施配额管理的目的是将这部分产品的年进口增幅限制在7.5%以下，受影响的产品只占整体贸易总额的一小部分。今年截至9月30日，这些进口商品的报关额仅为6.48亿美元，与总体贸易额相比微不足道。但是，纺织业对中国而言意义重大。纺织业是政府改革的试验田，为了在全球市场上具备相当的竞争力，中国的纺织业在过去十年间经历了痛苦的重组过程，上百万工人被裁退。
熬过了这么多年的苦日子，纺织业在美国2005年全面取消配额的预期下开始全面复苏，但这项时间表目前被划上了一个巨大的问号。美国贸易界管理人士称，实施配额管理的商品种类比预期的要多，上周他们与美国官员会晤时提到的只是一两类商品，而正式公布的是三类。
近几个月来，布什政府一直在批评中国政府采取不公平的贸易手段，从美国制造业手中夺取了大量就业机会，可能会导致今年美国对中国的贸易逆差升至1,200亿美元。直到目前，中国政府并未调整美国提及的几项政策，包括人民币与美元挂钩的汇率制度，以及严格的市场准入制度。美国称这些做法与中国政府加入世界贸易组织时的承诺不符。
然而，美国的做法已经使中国总理温家宝和其他政府官员感到了压力。在中国政府眼中，与美国的贸易联系以及美国的投资对中国经济至关重要，而美国政府的良好意愿也是中国在国际舞台上的支持力量。但与此同时，温家宝也面临著很多来自国内的压力，一方面是那些受到最新贸易限制条例打击的企业，另一方面，普通民众和很多官员也对中国能否从WTO全球贸易规则中受益感到怀疑。
作为中国最大的胸衣生产商，青岛南南有限公司(Qingdao Nannan Co.)就遭到了布什政府最新进口限制的打击。这是一家中韩合资公司，为Maidenform Inc.、Limited Brands Inc.旗下Victoria's Secret子公司、以及Target Corp.的零售店铺生产胸衣。今年前10个月，该公司对美国市场的销售额就激增到1,000万美元，是2002年全年销售额的两倍。但现在，公司外贸部主管余彦涛(Yu Yantao, 音译)表示，美国新颁布的贸易限制条例将迫使公司重新调整业务扩张计划，甚至可能导致裁员。他说，这对公司来说很不公平。
中国产业团体呼吁进行报复。中国纺织品进出口商会(China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles)将美国的配额措施称之为“贸易战”。商会副会长曹新宇表示，希望获知新配额制度的更多详情，以便制定下一步策略。
中国商务部发言人则表示，作为世界贸易组织的成员国，中国保留向世界贸易组织及有关机构申诉、维护国家利益的权利。商务部发言人崇泉在商务部网站上公布的声明中表示，中国对此深表遗憾，并坚决反对。
美国副贸易代表Josette Sheeran Shiner本周正在北京与中方官员讨论知识产权保护和其他贸易事项。他为纺织品配额措施辩护说，这是经过认真考虑的政策，而非限制贸易的做法。他此次出访为期五天，在最后一天接受记者采访时表示，这是在某些领域进口激增时采取的临时性措施。
美中双方是否会采取措施限制事态的发展，以免对双方关系造成更大损害，要等到月末才见分晓。除了正式宣布推迟农产品采购团的行程外，据美国产业界高级管理人士称，另一个拟采购电讯产品和发电设备的中国采购团也提出了申办签证的困难。但他们原定月末启程的计划并未正式延期。上周已经有两个采购团访美，签署了从波音公司(Boeing Co.)购买飞机，以及从通用电气(General Electric Co.)购买飞机引擎和汽车零部件的订单，总价值有望达到60亿美元。
