Mobile-Home Loans Hang Over Fannie Mae
Investors in Fannie Mae, still recovering from last week's billion-dollar accounting bungle, now are whispering about another potential source of trouble: The company's deteriorating $9 billion portfolio of manufactured-housing loans.
The massive government-sponsored mortgage company, which makes money by buying home loans to boost the U.S. mortgage market, historically has focused on loans to borrowers with good credit.
But in recent years, Fannie Mae has dipped into riskier waters, including securities backed by loans made to buyers of mobile homes. Many mobile-home loans have turned bad in recent years, amid a weak economy, and the losses have been flowing through to investors. In late September, the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York disclosed a surprise $183 million loss from soured mobile-home investments, leading many investors to wonder if Fannie Mae might be next to get burned.
In large part, the concerns stem from the heavy concentration of Fannie Mae's manufactured-housing exposure in securities from Conseco Inc., which filed for bankruptcy-court protection last year in part because of problems with mobile-home loans. Conseco emerged from bankruptcy in September. After downgrading Conseco's credit ratings late last year, Moody's Investors Service Inc. last month put Conseco mobile-home securities on review for another possible downgrade, citing "continued performance deterioration" and "high levels of cumulative losses and repossessions." Standard & Poor's also has recently downgraded numerous Conseco securities, leading some industry experts to question if Fannie Mae will have to report losses associated with the loans. About 70% of Fannie Mae's mobile-home portfolio is tied to Conseco loans.
"There are not that many public companies that would be sitting on $10 billion of assets that everybody knows has dropped" significantly in value, says Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, an industry publication. Other companies, he and others say, would have been forced by investors to sell or otherwise take a loss on the securities, much like the New York home-loan bank, but Fannie Mae hasn't done so.
Fears related to bad mobile-home investments represent another potential weight on Fannie Mae's stock, which stumbled last week after the company disclosed that "computational errors" tied to a new accounting rule caused it to understate stockholder equity by $1.1 billion. Although the problem didn't affect Fannie Mae's reported profit, its shares fell 2.4% Wednesday after the disclosure. Fannie Mae shares fell 1.9%, or $1.42, to $71.69 at 4 p.m. Friday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The shares remain well above their recent low of just above $60 each, reached this summer.
It is possible an improving economy could reverse the tide of mobile-home defaults. Some housing analysts say the manufactured-housing sector already has hit bottom -- or will soon. It is unlikely Fannie Mae would suffer a loss big enough to seriously jeopardize its long-term financial health, because its $9 billion mobile-home portfolio is small relative to its total portfolio of $900 billion.
The company says its mobile-home securities are "still performing," and that it has so-called credit enhancements, such as insurance, that should help mitigate any losses. It also says it holds senior positions in most of the securities, meaning it should only suffer losses after other investors do. The company's credit losses, while expected to rise somewhat next year, remain near historical lows.
"We've looked at it very hard, and we do not believe that any potential additional impairment that might be recorded [from manufactured-housing loans] will be material to Fannie Mae's operating results," Fannie Mae spokesman Chuck Greener says.
Even so, some analysts worry mobile-home investments could come back to haunt Fannie Mae , especially given the experience of the New York home-loan bank. That bank's loss came from mobile-home holdings of just $1.6 billion. Some analysts say Fannie Mae's manufactured-housing investments are large enough that any need to write them down or sell them could dent the company's earnings, or at least cause enough embarrassment to spur investors to look more critically at the company's other subprime holdings.
In a little-noticed item in its second-quarter filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Fannie Mae said a quarter of its mobile-home securities are now rated triple-B, following recent downgrades, suggesting that things are getting worse. This was the first time the company had disclosed the specifics of the credit quality of all its mobile-home securities. In its 2002 annual report, the company said the "vast majority" of its mobile-home securities were rated double-A-minus or better. In a first-quarter filing, such securities represented "a substantial majority" and in the second quarter, they were just "a majority."
The company said it had reviewed its mobile-home securities and "recorded impairment where appropriate," but it declined to provide specific numbers because it says they weren't material. The company's second-quarter filings cited an impairment of $102 million from a nontemporary drop in value of "certain mortgage and nonmortgage securities or investments." The company reported net income of $1.1 billion that quarter.
The manufactured-housing sector has been weak for several years, but it has worsened during the past two years, largely because of an oversupply of mobile homes that hasn't fully abated. Many investors in loans backed by manufactured housing, as well as rating agencies that rate such debt, underestimated the default rates on these loans. But easy financing attracted some borrowers who couldn't make their payments, and things got worse as the economy slowed, especially in manufacturing-heavy states such as North Carolina. The riskiest of these bonds have seen recoveries of 20 cents on the dollar or less.
Lately, there have been some signs of hope for the manufactured-housing business, because the inventory of repossessed mobile homes has shrunk somewhat, suggesting Fannie Mae's situation could improve eventually. But defaults are still near all-time highs.
"You're probably looking to at least a year before things stabilize back to a level where defaults are much more manageable," says Rod Dubitsky, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston.
Fannie Mae has invested in manufactured housing for many years, in part because of pressure from housing advocates who want the company to do more to help finance low-income families. But analysts say the company's recent mobile-home investments are also motivated by a desire to find new sources of growth as it swallows up all the prime-credit loans that are available. The company says it started buying Conseco securities in 1999, but slowed its purchases in 2000 after it determined the securities' performance was weakening.
房利美面临移动房屋麻烦
联邦国民抵押贷款协会(Fannie Mae, FNM, 简称：房利美)的投资者们还没从上周数亿美元会计误报的打击中回过神来，就将可能面临另外一击：房利美价值90亿美元的预制屋贷款的状况正逐步恶化。
由政府撑腰的房利美主要透过收购住房贷款推进美国按揭市场，从中渔利。该公司历史上主要瞄准信贷状况良好的贷款人的贷款。
但近些年来，房利美开始涉足风险较高的领域，包括证券化的移动房屋购房人贷款。由于经济疲弱，很多移动房屋贷款近些年来变为坏帐，从而使投资者蒙受了巨额损失。
纽约联邦房屋贷款银行(Federal Home Loan Bank of New York) 9月下旬出乎意料地公布，因移动房屋投资减值，亏损1.83亿美元。这使很多投资者担忧，房利美是否将步纽约联邦房屋贷款银行的后尘。
引起这些担忧的主要原因是房利美持有Conseco Inc.的巨额证券化预制屋贷款。由于移动房屋贷款等问题，Conseco去年申请了破产保护，该公司在9月份摆脱了破产保护。
继去年年底调低了对Conseco的信贷评级后，穆迪投资服务公司(Moody's Investors Service Inc.)上个月开始对Conseco的移动房屋证券进行审查，并有可能再次调低其评级，穆迪认为Conseco业绩持续恶化，累积亏损和赎回量高启。
标准普尔近期还调低了数个Conseco证券的评级，使一些行业专家质疑，房利美是否将因这些相关贷款出现亏损。房利美70%的移动房屋资产同Conseco的贷款有关。
行业出版物Inside Mortgage Finance的出版人盖伊?切卡拉(Guy Cecala)称，持有100亿美元人所共知已经贬值了的资产，这样的上市公司并不多。
切卡拉和另外一些人表示，换作其他公司，就像纽约联邦房屋贷款银行一样，可能早已在投资者的要求下出售这些资产，或就这些证券登记亏损，但房利美并没有这么做。
有关不良移动房屋投资的担忧是房利美股价面临的另外一重压力。上周该公司公布，同新会计准则相关的"计算错误"导致公司低报了11亿美元的所有者权益，消息传出，该股大幅下挫。
尽管这个问题并未影响房利美的利润，但上周三公布了该消息后该股下跌了2.4%。房利美上周五下跌1.9%，最终收于71.69美元。不过，该股较今年夏季创出的略高于60美元的低点仍有很大距离。
经济形势的好转将扭转移动房屋贷款状况的恶化，这是有可能的。一些住宅行业的分析师称，预制屋行业已经触底，或者说即将触底。房利美出现足以影响其长期财务状况的巨额亏损的可能性并不大，因为与其高达9,000亿美元的总资产相比，90亿美元的移动房屋业务量并不算大。
该公司称其移动房屋证券仍然表现良好，该公司还有保险等所谓的信贷组合保障来减轻可能出现的亏损。该公司还表示，公司在多数证券中持有优先头寸，也就是说，只有在其他投资方出现亏损后，该公司才有可能出现亏损。该公司的信贷损失虽然预计在明年将会增加，但目前仍处于历史最低水平。
房利美发言人格陵纳(Chuck Greener)称，公司非常严肃地看待这个问题，公司相信，预制屋贷款可能计入的任何额外减损都不会对公司的营运利润产生实质性影响。
尽管如此，一些分析师仍然担心，在移动房屋方面的投资可能会重新纠缠上房利美，考虑到纽约联邦房屋贷款银行的经历，这个问题尤其令人担忧。这家银行仅持有16亿美元的移动房屋贷款，就导致银行出现了亏损。一些投资者表示，房利美在预制屋方面的投资是如此巨大，只要出现冲减或出售这部分投资的需要，就会削弱公司的利润，或至少足以使公司陷入困境，促使投资者以更挑剔的眼光看待公司的其他次要财产。
在公司递交美国证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)的第二财政季度报告中，有一个不太引人注目的地方：房利美称，在公司持有的移动房屋证券中，有四分之一的评级目前被降级为BBB，显示公司的状况正在恶化。这是公司首次披露其全部移动房屋证券的信贷质量的细节。在公司2002财政年度的报告中，房利美表示其绝大多数移动房屋证券的评级为AA-或更高。在第一财政季度的报告中，这类证券为"大多数"，而到了第二财政季度，则变成了"多数"。
该公司表示已经重新审视了自己的移动房屋证券，并在必要的地方计入了减损，但该公司拒绝提供具体数字，因为该公司表示这一数字不会产生实质性影响。该公司在第二财政季度的报告中表示，该公司对"某些抵押贷款和非抵押贷款证券或投资"价值的"非临时性"下降计入了1.02亿美元的减损。该公司当季公布实现利润11亿美元。
预制屋行业数年来一直表现疲弱，但在过去两年中情况进一步恶化，主要是由于移动房屋供应过剩的局面没有得到全面的缓解。预制屋贷款的许多投资者，以及对这类贷款进行评级的机构，都低估了这些贷款的拖欠比例。
但是融资的易得性吸引了一些没有付款能力的借款人，而经济进程的放缓使情况进一步恶化，尤其是在北卡罗来纳州等以制造业为主的州。
最近，预制屋业务出现了一些可能出现好转的迹象，因为二手移动房屋的库存出现了一定程度的减少，表明房利美的处境可能最终会出现好转。但贷款拖欠比例仍处于历史最高水平。
瑞士信贷第一波士顿的分析师Rod Dubitsky称，可能至少要再过一年，贷款拖欠比例才能恢复至可控制的水平。
房利美已在预制屋行业投资了多年，部分原因来自希望该公司采取更多措施帮助为低收入家庭进行融资的房屋倡导者的压力。但分析师称，该公司最近在移动房屋的投资还受到需要寻找新的增长来源的需求的推动，因为该公司已经耗尽了能够得到的全部一级贷款。该公司称其从1999年开始买进Conseco证券，但在2000年购买速度有所放缓，因为该公司认定该证券的表现正在逐渐恶化。
