欧盟：人民币钉住一揽子货币值得考虑

EU's Lamy Says Not Much Rationale For Yuan-Dollar Peg

European Union Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy Friday urged the Chinese authorities to peg the yuan to a basket of currencies rather than solely to the U.S. dollar.

"We maintain that there's not much rationale for the renminbi (or yuan) to remain pegged only to the dollar," Lamy said in a speech to the EU Chamber of Commerce.

"Given the very diversified connections which the Chinese economy has with other economies...(The dollar peg) is a question which deserves consideration," he added.

"(E.U.) central bank governor Wim Duisenberg ...said a few weeks ago, for instance, that looking at whether a (dollar) peg is necessary, a (currency) basket of euro, yen and dollar would be something to look at. I think it's an idea that's worth considering," Lamy said.

China is under pressure from the U.S. to adopt a more flexible exchange rate for the yuan, which is currently wedged in a narrow range. U.S. officials have said that the relative weakness of the yuan has led to a ballooning trade deficit and massive job losses.

The Chinese government has said it will eventually ease its tight grip on the foreign exchange system but hasn't given any timetable.

While the E.U. posted a 47 billion euro trade deficit with China last year, the trade imbalance hasn't escalated into a political issue with E.U. leaders.

"Has the E.U. trade deficit now become a political problem as it evidently has in the U.S.? In my view, not yet," Lamy said. The E.U. has a balanced trade relationship with the world, posting surpluses with its other trading partners.

"Unlike in the U.S., there is a much lesser sense of geopolitical challenge to Europe from China. Partly that is because Europe is not a political superpower herself," he added.

"We all have to know that the renminbi evaluation is a part of the Chinese competitiveness (but) it's probably not the main factor in Chinese competitiveness," Lamy said.
欧盟：人民币钉住一揽子货币值得考虑

欧盟贸易委员帕斯卡尔?拉米(Pascal Lamy)周五敦促中国政府考虑让人民币钉住一揽子货币，用以取代钉住美元的外汇政策。

拉米在对欧盟国际商会讲话时说，"我们仍然认为，人民币仅仅钉住美元的政策缺乏理论支持。"

他补充说，考虑到中国经济与其他经济体联系的多样化，钉住美元的外汇政策值得质疑。

拉米说，欧洲央行行长德伊森贝赫(Wim Duisenberg)几周前就曾表示，在考察是否有必要采取钉住美元的汇率政策时，不妨考虑一下钉住欧元、日圆和美元的一揽子货币。拉米认为这个建议值得考虑。

中国正受到来自美国的压力，要求采用更灵活的人民币汇率制度。目前人民币汇率被限制在一个狭窄区间内。美国官员曾经表示，人民币的相对疲软导致美国贸易逆差急剧扩大以及大量失业。 中国政府曾表示，将最终放松对外汇制度的控制，但没有给出时间表。

虽然欧盟去年对中国的贸易逆差为470亿欧元，贸易失衡还没有成为欧盟领导人的政治问题。但欧盟与全球其他地区保持著平衡的贸易关系，除中国以外，欧盟对其他贸易伙伴均保持顺差。

拉米说，和美国不同，欧洲对来自中国的地理政治挑战的感觉要弱得多。部分原因是欧洲本身不是一个政治上的超级强权地区。

拉米说，必须了解的是，人民币价值是中国竞争力的部分原因，但可能不是主要因素。

美国财政部：没有贸易伙伴存在汇市操纵行为

US Tsy: No Trade Partners Guilty Of Forex Manipulation


The U.S. Treasury said neither China, Japan nor any other major trading partner is guilty of currency manipulation, in a report submitted to Congress Thursday.

"No major trading partner of the U.S. meets the technical requirements for designation under the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988 during the first half of 2003," according to the report.

Although a number of countries intervene regularly or utilize currency pegs, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said that isn't necessarily manipulation for the purpose of gaining a trade advantage. Had Treasury said governments were manipulating currencies, it would have been required to undertake negotiations with the guilty parties to get them to stop.

"It should be noted that a currency peg or intervention does not in and of itself satisfy the statutory test," Snow said in prepared remarks to be delivered before the Senate Banking Committee Thursday.

Currency-market players were eagerly awaiting the report, originally scheduled for release Oct. 15. Under pressure from U.S. manufacturers, who complain that Asian governments are artificially weakening their currencies to cheapen exports to the U.S., Snow has repeatedly urged other countries to allow market forces to set exchange rates.

Treasury was in a no-win situation with the report, which has been mandated by Congress since 1988. Members of Congress who have been pressing the Bush administration to be more forceful in getting China and other Asian countries to refrain from intervention in currency markets are sure to call the report a whitewash. But had Treasury branded China or Japan as a manipulator, it would have provoked currency-market speculation sure to anger those governments.

"I recognize the need to address exchange rates as part of our overall international economic strategy," Snow said. "But, as the example of China also indicates, I believe that the course we are on of financial diplomacy is the right course and the most effective way to bring about change."

Snow added that he is "encouraged" by the steps the Chinese government has announced to ease capital controls and other technical preparations that would allow more flexibility in the yuan, pegged at CNY8.277 against the dollar since 1998. Still, he said China should do more to achieve a more flexible exchange rate.

"Greater exchange rate flexibility would allow China greater scope to maintain a low-inflation, pro-growth monetary policy," Snow said.

The report to Congress restated the administration's view that a currency peg isn't right for China, a country with a large economy and substantial share of global trade. The report also noted that China had maintained its peg even during times when the U.S. dollar was relatively very strong.

Snow also mentioned the administration's opinion on the Chinese currency peg. "A pegged exchange rate is not appropriate for a major economy like China and should be changed," he said.

Snow repeated the long-standing official U.S. policy favoring a strong U.S. dollar. "As I have said often, a country cannot devalue itself into prosperity," he said. "A strong dollar is in the U.S. national interest."

Snow said he and other members of the Bush administration are pushing other governments to adopt more flexible exchange rates and pro-growth economic policies. At the last Group of Seven meeting in Dubai, ministers issued a statement endorsing more flexibility in foreign-exchange markets and "widespread adjustments in the international financial system based on market mechanisms."

All G7 ministers and central bankers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, agreed with the statement, Snow said.

For example, the U.S. has urged Japan to adopt policies that foster an economic recovery. These include ending deflation, strengthening the banking system, and undertaking structural reforms to make the economy more flexible, Snow said.

"Indeed, the Bank of Japan has aggressively increased the money supply to counter deflation, and the Koizumi government has made important headway on improving the health of the banking system," Snow said.

Past dollar strength has been a factor in the ballooning U.S. current account deficit, often cited by economists as a risk threatening the global economy. Snow said the U.S. current account deficit, the broadest measure of trade, reflects "the attractive investment environment and high growth of productivity in the U.S."

"Increased saving in the U.S. along with stronger growth abroad will reduce the deficit in the current account," Snow said.

Treasury's currency report, which covers the first half of 2003, also contained statistics on foreign-exchange reserves and market developments. It said the trade-weighted U.S. dollar depreciated 5.1% during the period.
美国财政部：没有贸易伙伴存在汇市操纵行为

美国财政部周四在递交给国会的一份报告中称，中国、日本以及美国其他主要贸易伙伴不存在汇市操纵行为。

据这份报告称，按照《1988年综合贸易与竞争力法案》(Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness Act of 1988)对汇市操纵订立的技术条件，2003年上半年，美国主要的贸易伙伴都没有进行此类操纵。

尽管部分国家定期进行汇市干预，或者实行钉住美元的汇率制度，但美国财政部长约翰?斯诺(John Snow)称，这些国家这样做的目的不一定是为了获取贸易优势。假如财政部声称某国政府操纵了汇市，那么财政部就需要与该国进行谈判，并要求它停止操纵行为。

斯诺周四在向参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)发表的一份预先准备好的讲话中称，需要指出的是，汇率钉住制度或入市干预行为本身并不符合法律的规定。

外汇市场的投资者此前都在急切地等待著这份报告的公布，这份报告原定于10月15日公布。美国制造商一向抱怨称，亚洲政府人为地压低他们的货币，以使其出口美国的商品更为便宜。迫于制造商的压力，斯诺一直反复敦促其他国家将汇率交由市场决定。

斯诺称，他意识到有必要将汇率作为美国总体对外经济策略的一部分，但是正如中国的例子所表明的，他相信目前实行的对外金融政策是正确的，也是寻求改变的最有效途径。 斯诺补充称，对于中国政府宣布将放松资本管制，以及将为实行更为灵活的汇率制度做其他技术准备，他感到备受鼓舞。自1998年以来中国政府将美元兑人民币汇率一直固定在人民币8.277元，他称，中国需要作进一步的努力以实行更为灵活的汇率制度。

斯诺称，采取更为灵活的汇率制度后，中国将能够在保持低通胀率、实行有利于经济发展的货币政策上有更大的灵活度。

这份递交给国会的报告重申，美国政府认为，作为一个经济规模庞大，在全球贸易市场中占据很大比重的国家，中国不应采取钉住汇率制度。报告还指出，甚至在美元相对走强的时期，人民币也采取的是钉住美元的汇率机制。

斯诺还提到了政府对于中国外汇钉住政策所持的观点。他说，钉住汇率不适合中国这样的主要经济体，应当予以改变。

斯诺重申了美国官方长期以来支持强势美元的政策。他说，正如他经常讲的那样，一国不可能通过货币贬值实现繁荣，强势美元政策符合美国的国家利益。

斯诺表示，布什(Bush)政府的其他成员和他本人都在积极推动其他国家政府采取更灵活的汇率机制和旨在实现增长的经济政策。在七大工业国(Group of Seven)上一次迪拜会议上，各成员国的财政部长们发表共同声明，支持建立更灵活的外汇市场，及"在市场机制之上对国际金融体系进行广泛调整"。

斯诺说，包括美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, Fed)主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在内，七大工业国的财政部长和央行行长们对此均没有异议。

美元过去以来的强势一直是造成美国经常项目赤字飞涨的一个因素，而经常项目赤字亦经常被经济学家视为威胁全球经济的风险所在。斯诺称，美国经常项目赤字是"美国颇具吸引力的投资环境和生产率水平高增长"的反映。

他表示，美国国内储蓄增加及海外业务强劲增长将减少美国的经常项目赤字。

财政部的外汇报告显示，2003年上半年美元的贸易加权汇率下跌5.1%。

斯诺：中国打算实行更灵活汇率制度

US Snow:China Intends To Adopt More Currency Flexibility

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Thursday said the Chinese leadership has assured him their goal is to someday adopt a flexible exchange rate.

The Chinese have told him they will ease their yuan peg "as soon as possible," Snow told members of the Senate Banking Committee, while testifying on the Treasury Department's report on currency policy submitted to Congress Thursday.

Eliminating the peg won't happen in "weeks or months," but Chinese action on interim steps to ease capital restrictions and strengthen their banking system should come by then, Snow said.

China's government has said that it plans to adopt a more flexible exchange rate, but it fears that acting too soon could prompt capital flight. China worries investors may choose to pull money out of its banking system, which is riddled with non-performing loans.

One of the interim steps China could adopt would be to change its system so the yuan is pegged against a basket of currencies, instead of the current fixed CNY8.277 against the U.S. dollar, Snow said. This might help facilitate adjustment in the U.S. trade deficit with China, and the overall U.S. current account balance, he said. Raising U.S. savings rates would also help, he added.

Snow said he doesn't believe the U.S. should set a timetable for China to act, because that would invite unwelcome market speculation.

Sen. Paul Sarbanes of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the committee, said the U.S. should urge China to revalue its exchange rate peg 25% higher as a short-run step.

Snow said he believes the emphasis should be on fixing the problems in the banking system, rather than on shifting the peg.

"It is better to work on the banking system now," he said. "It is better to fix the problems now."
斯诺：中国打算实行更灵活汇率制度

美国财政部长约翰?斯诺(John Snow)周四表示，中国领导人已向其保证，将在时机成熟的时候采用灵活的汇率制度。

斯诺周四就财政部向国会递交的汇率政策报告作证，他告诉参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)成员称，中国领导人告诉斯诺，中国将会尽快放松人民币钉住美元的固定汇率政策。

斯诺称，中国不会在"数周或数月"内取消汇率钉住政策，但应将很快实施过渡政策，放松对资本帐户的管制，强化银行系统。

中国政府已表示计划采取更为灵活的汇率制度，但担心过早实施该项政策可能引发资本外逃。 斯诺称，中国政府可能采取的过渡措施之一是改革现有的汇率体制，以人民币钉住一篮子货币的汇率政策取代现有的人民币8.277元兑1美元的固定汇率政策。此举可能有助于调整美国与中国的贸易逆差，并改善美国的总体经常项目状况。

斯诺称，他认为美国不应为中国的汇率改革设定时间表，因为这引发令人不快的市场投机行为。

斯诺的讲话内藏玄机

FOREX VIEW: Snow Goes For Softly-Softly China Approach

If the group of U.S. lawmakers lambasting China for its currency policies represents the stick in efforts to get the fast-growing nation to embrace a flexible exchange rate, Treasury Secretary John Snow's approach Thursday clearly symbolized the carrot.

Despite some expectations - rooted largely in the call by finance ministers from the Group of Seven industrialized nations for more flexible, market-based exchange rates - that Snow would publicly rebuke China and Japan for stage-managing their currencies, he instead took the softly-softly route, while a report from his department said no countries are technically manipulating their currencies to gain trade advantage.

Though the report and Snow's comments sparked the ire of the vocal group of senators who lay much of the blame for the decline of U.S. manufacturing at China's door, the Treasury chief clearly sent a signal to foreign exchange markets that the U.S. isn't going to push for a drastic end to China's currency peg in particular and Asian monetary policies more generally. That's not to say it won't nudge China towards a more market-based system for its currency - and ultimately its capital account. It just will do so via diplomatic channels.

"I think the tone was quite conciliatory and generated a feeling that the U.S. is making progress behind closed doors," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4Cast financial consultancy in New York. "Assuming Snow wasn't just putting this on as a good front to tone the senators down, on balance you have to take him at his word."

For the near-term outlook for the dollar, this has implications, including the potential to slow its decline against the yen and other Asian currencies that's been very much a focus of foreign exchange markets since the Sept. 20 G7 meeting in Dubai.

"There's less of a sense that the U.S. is about to browbeat Asian monetary authorities into flexible exchange rates and less inclination to think the U.S. is going to actively go out and talk the dollar weaker," said Ruskin.

The G7 communique convinced many global investors that the U.S. wants Japan to stop spending massively in currency markets to prevent the yen from getting too strong and derailing its fragile economic recovery. It was also read as a call on China to speed its transition towards at least a widening of the band in which its currency, the yuan, trades against the dollar.

That tightly-controlled system, critics charge, means the yuan has been weakening steadily in line with the dollar over the past few years, handing China a competitive edge on global markets and draining manufacturing jobs from the rest of the world.

Japanese Restraint Helps
Since the G7 gathering, the yen has gained roughly 7% against the dollar and Japan has been much less of a force in currency markets, preferring to intervene only to try to smooth the yen's movements, instead of preventing it from strengthening altogether. This clearly made it easier for Snow to refrain from bashing Japan on Capitol Hill, particularly as a more buoyant Japan is a good thing for the global economy in the eyes of the Bush administration.

Snow himself noted that the yen has been strengthening. But his testimony - and Treasury's report - quashed expectations that Japan's Ministry of Finance would become even less of a force in foreign exchange markets now.

"Smoothing operations, even sizable ones to slow the move (of the yen) down, should be expected to continue as long as the dollar trends lower and as long as the Bush administration is perceived as wanting the dollar to move gradually lower," said David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics, in Essex, Conn.

As for pressure on China, Snow's testimony suggests it will certainly remain a force heading into a U.S. presidential election year, but in the knowledge that Beijing needs to first move slowly towards overhauling its fragile banking system which many analysts think would be crushed by an abrupt float of the yuan.

"He's very sympathetic to that logic," said Marcel Kasumovich, head of G-10 currency strategy at Merrill Lynch in New York. "You need a healthy financial sector to push in that direction."

Kasumovich said Snow's testimony highlighted that the Bush administration is "definitely not going to be using the stick or playing hardball with China. They're going to try to make it clear that this is the desirable outcome that will ensure strong global growth down the road."
斯诺的讲话内藏玄机

美国部分议员对中国的外汇政策进行猛烈抨击，如果说这是美国努力促使经济快速增长的中国采取灵活汇率政策过程中的"大棒"，那么美国财政部长约翰?斯诺(John Snow)周四的态度无疑可被认为是"胡萝卜"。

尽管部分人士此前预计，斯诺将就操控本国货币汇率问题公开指责中国与日本，但斯诺采取的是温和路线。美国财政部公布的一份报告指出，没有一个国家通过技术上操纵本国货币汇率而获取贸易优势。

美国部分参议员认为中国压低人民币汇率是美国制造业衰落的主要原因，上述报告及斯诺的评论激起了这些参议员的愤怒。但斯诺无疑向外汇市场发出了一个信号，即美国既不会特别要求中国立即停止实施盯住美元的汇率制度，也不会要求亚洲各国迅速改变汇率政策。不过，这并非表明美国的基本立场发生了变化，美国仍将敦促中国逐步采取以市场为基础的汇率机制，并最终实现资本项目的完全可自由兑换。美国只是寻求通过外交途径来达到上述目的。 纽约金融咨询公司4Cast的研究部门主管Alan Ruskin表示，斯诺的态度很是温和，这使人不由得认为，美国在要求中国采取更为灵活的外汇政策方面私下已取得了一些进展；斯诺的言论肯定存在著某种平衡。

就美元的近期前景而言，斯诺的评论内含玄机，这可能会促使美元兑日圆及其他亚洲货币的跌势有所缓和。自9月20日七大工业国迪拜会议后，美元兑亚洲货币持续下跌已成为汇市焦点。

七大工业国公报使许多国际投资者确信，美国希望日本停止大规模抛售日圆以阻止日圆走强的汇市干预措施；此外，投资者还认为公报敦促中国加速汇率政策的改革，至少应当扩大人民币兑美元的波动区间。

批评人士指出，中国实行的严格监控的汇率制度意味著人民币兑美元在过去几年的时间内持续走软，从而提升了中国产品在国际市场上的竞争力，并剥夺了其他国家制造业的就业机会。

日本政府的克制发挥了作用

日圆兑美元自七大工业国会议以来已大幅上涨约7%，日本干预汇市的举动有所收敛，该国更倾向于干预汇市以缓和日圆走势，而不是此前出于阻止日圆走强的目的。日本方面的态度转变无疑发挥了作用，斯诺没有对日本的干预措施进行抨击。

斯诺曾经指出，日圆已经走强。但斯诺的证词及美国财政部的报告导致一些市场人士的期望破灭，他们此前预计日本财务省在外汇市场上所发挥的作用将有所减小。

Foreign Exchange Analytics的合伙人David Gilmore表示，只要美元延续下跌走势，只要市场认为布什政府希望美元逐步走低，那么日本方面还将继续缓和汇市走势，甚至于大规模干预汇市。 至于对中国施加的压力，斯诺的证词暗示，这仍将是美国明年总统大选之前的关键问题；不过，北京的当务之急是逐步改革脆弱的银行体系。许多分析师认为，骤然采取人民币自由浮动的外汇政策可能会导致中国的银行体系崩溃。

美林(Merrill Lynch)驻纽约的外汇策略部主管arcel Kasumovich表示，斯诺对中国方面的顾虑深表理解；健全的金融体系是实现本币汇率自由浮动的先决条件。

Kasumovich称，斯诺的证词清楚地表明，布什政府决不会向中国挥起大棒，也不会与中国进行较量；美国政府将努力向中国表明，为确保全球经济强劲增长，灵活的汇率政策是理想的选择。