Sino-Russian cynicism
If you believe the outward signs, the visit to China this week by Vladimir Putin, Russian president, ought to be a celebration of the ever-stronger ties between two of Eurasia's great powers.
Not since the Sino-Soviet honeymoon of the 1950s have Moscow and Beijing enjoyed such an apparent convergence of interests or such a good relationship between their respective leaders. Both countries want to nurture their growing economies. China needs natural resources and Russia has them. Both want to counterbalance the might of the US and undermine President George W. Bush's inconvenient plans to spread democracy around the world.
After decades of disputes, China and Russia have settled the demarcation of their 4,300km border. Last year they even staged a joint military exercise with 9,000 troops. This is the "Year of Russia" in China, and Russia will celebrate the "Year of China" in 2007.
Given these official signs of mutual respect and the bonhomie between Mr Putin and Hu Jintao, his Chinese counterpart, relations between the two governments and the two peoples remain surprisingly frosty. In the words of the Chinese media, the relationship is "hot on the top but cold underneath".
Nor have the improved ties between the two - both are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council - so far proved very helpful in resolving international problems. Russia is trying to broker a solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis, just as China is doing with North Korea. But neither Beijing nor Moscow has pursued its task with sufficient vigour or applied enough pressure to its client state. On other matters - democratisation and reform in eastern Europe and central Asia, for example - China and Russia have been actively unhelpful.
There is a temporary coincidence of material interests between Russia and China but it is superficial and the results have yet to yield lasting benefits for either country or the world at large. China's aims are narrow. It wants to secure oil, gas, timber and other resources from Russia, and is irritated with Moscow for dithering over whether to pipe oil from its east Siberian fields to China or to a port near China's rival, Japan. Russia, showing the wounded pride of an ex-superpower, is anxious not to be cast as the commodity supplier it has now become. Mr Putin is trying feverishly to sell machinery to an industrialised economy two and half times the size of Russia's that no longer has much use for imports from that source.
There is one high-technology sector where China and Russia have a vibrant relationship of mutual dependency, but unfortunately $3bn (￡1.7bn) of annual Russian weapons sales to China does nothing to advance peaceful globalisation or reduce suspicions between the nations. Mr Putin and Mr Hu should each pledge to play a more constructive role in international affairs and lift their sights higher than guns and oil.
中俄关系应超越石油和军火
如果你相信表面迹象，那么俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)本周访华，应是对中俄这两个欧亚大国日益强劲关系的一次庆祝。
自上世纪50年代中苏蜜月期以来，莫斯科和北京还从没有分享过如此明显的共同利益，双方领导人之间的关系也从没有这么亲密过。两国都希望推动各自增长中的经济。中国需要自然资源，俄罗斯则拥有自然资源。两国都希望制衡美国的强权，并削弱美国布什(George W. Bush)总统在世界各地传播民主的计划，这些计划令中俄“不爽”。
中俄两国在经历了数十年争议后，已解决了4300公里边界的划界问题。去年两国甚至举行了9000人的联合军事演习。今年是中国的“俄罗斯年”，而2007年将是俄罗斯的“中国年”。
尽管官方迹象是中俄两国互相尊重，而且普京与中国国家出席胡锦涛关系十分密切，但两国政府和人民之间的关系令人吃惊地冷淡。用中国媒体的话来说，两国关系“上热下冷”。
两国都是联合国安理会常任理事国，但迄今为止，双方关系的改善也未证明非常有助于解决国际问题。俄罗斯试图为解决伊朗核危机进行斡旋，正如中国处理朝鲜核问题一样。但无论是北京还是莫斯科，执行各自任务的力度都不够，也没有给朝鲜或伊朗施加足够压力。在其它事务上，比如东欧和中亚的民主化和改革，中俄一直“积极地不合作”。
俄中两国的物质利益暂时重合，这种共同利益流于表面，其结果对两国乃至全世界都尚未产生持久的益处。中国的目标是狭窄的，它想从俄罗斯获得石油、天然气、木材和其它资源，并对莫斯科在输油管线走向问题上的举棋不定(从东西伯利亚油田将石油输往中国，或是输往靠近日本这一中国竞争对手的俄罗斯港口)感到恼火。作为一个前超级大国，俄罗斯显出一种受伤的傲慢，急于摆脱大宗商品供应国的形象。普京正竭力向中国兜售机械产品，而中国工业化经济规模已是俄罗斯的2.5倍，这种进口用处不大了。
中国和俄罗斯在一个高技术领域存在相互依赖的活跃关系，但不幸的是，俄罗斯每年向中国出售30亿美元的武器，无助于和平推进全球化，也不能减少两国间的相互猜疑。普京和胡锦涛应各自承诺在国际事务中发挥更富建设性的作用，他们的眼光也应超越武器和石油。
