Support for Iran embargo losing ground
US efforts to isolate Iran over its nuclear ambitions are colliding with the energy concerns of Asia's economic powers, testing Washington's ability to form a diplomatic coalition and its influence on oil and gas markets.
Officials tell the Financial Times that the US is looking at "creative" ways of addressing the energy worries of China, Japan and India - major buyers of Iranian oil.
The US is searching for a viable energy framework that would persuade such thirsty customers to halt planned investments in Iran's energy sector or even contemplate the shock of a sudden break in oil exports.
Officials and analysts are sceptical it can be done and, so far, US moves seem to be having the opposite effect.
Iran, second largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is racing to conclude big energy deals with all three countries before possible discussion of sanctions reaches the United Nations Security Council.
China, meanwhile, brought its concerns to Washington last month, laying out three principles that underpinned its energy policy: no interference in the internal affairs of others, no nuclear proliferation and secure energy supplies from the Middle East.
The US urged China to avoid investing in Iran; China said it would support diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis as long as oil supplies were not affected.
The US's success last week in referring Iran to the Security Council over breaches in its nuclear safeguards commitments raises the prospect of sanctions, although the US says they are not the first step. Nonetheless, it is moving towards "targeted sanctions" - such as a travel ban and an asset freeze for senior officials - and forming a coalition of "concerned countries" to impose what Dick Cheney, the vice-president, has called "meaningful consequences".
The US message to China and Japan - as well as India and Pakistan, which want to share a gas pipeline from Iran - is that Iran cannot be trusted as a reliable energy provider.
But the Bush administration's image is also taking a hit. "The general perception in the oil industry is that the biggest risk to the oil industry is the US administration," commented Fareed Mohamedi, chief economist with PFC Energy consultants. This was China's perception too, he said, following the destruction of Iraq's oil industry after the US invasion and the long-standing US embargo that has hobbled Iran's energy sector.
To enhance its independence of energy supplies, China is investing where the US is absent: Iran, Sudan, Burma, Uzbekistan and, possibly Venezuela. "They fear that in the case of conflict or a cold war, the US will interfere in China's oil supplies," Mr Mohamedi said. "By saying 'we can help', the US is making the situation even worse. There is very little the US can offer China."
James Placke, analyst with Cambridge Energy Research Associates, doubts the US can devise an energy framework that would exclude Iran and satisfy Asia. "If Iran for any reason were to severely reduce exports or stop exporting, the world would really be in a bind in the short term," he commented. "There is not a whole lot the US could do."
One option would be to tap the oil stockpiles of the 26 industrialised nations co-ordinated by the International Energy Agency. Claude Mandil, IEA executive director, recently said emergency stocks were enough to fill an 18-month hole if Iranian oil exports stopped. Countries negotiating with Iran "did not have to worry about an eventual loss of Iranian oil because you have the means to deal with it," he said.
Despite these assurances, analysts say crude oil could easily hit $100 (�84, ￡58) a barrel if Iran was taken off the market.
The US continues to press Japan not to proceed with the $2bn Azadegan oilfield deal it signed with Iran in 2004. Japan negotiated a clause in the contract to the effect that the deal would be off if Iran's nuclear crisis was not resolved.
"The difficulty, of course, is that Iran has used its oil and natural gas as a weapon, and used it very skilfully with a variety of countries. They've used it with India, China, with others," John Bolton, US ambassador to the UN, told Kyodo, the Japanese news agency. "I hope there's a way to work around the energy question, but it may be awkward for Japan. We understand that, but we think it's important to stick together on the non-proliferation."
A US official said Washington felt it had a "bit more leverage" over its ally, but that Japan had complained China would fill any investment gap left by Tokyo. "They tell us to solve the China problem first," he said. Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran's foreign minister, visiting Tokyo last month, stressed how Azadegan was a symbol of the two countries' good relations.
India and Pakistan are also of concern for the US. Although President George W. Bush skirted the subject to avoid offending his hosts on his recent visit, the White House later clarified that the US remained strongly opposed to the proposed "peace" pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India.
Nicholas Burns, undersecretary of state, urged India to meet its energy needs by turning to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as well as clean coal technology and nuclear power - with US assistance in a deal that allowed India to develop its nuclear arsenal.
The diplomatic tug-of-war goes on, with pipeline talks in Iran this week.
制裁伊朗 美国手中缺牌
美
国孤立伊朗以遏制其核野心的努力，正与亚洲经济强国的能源利益形成冲突，这考验着美国政府缔结外交联盟的能力，及其在石油天然气市场的影响力。
官员们向《金融时报》透露，美国正在寻找“创造性的”方式，以解决伊朗石油主要买家，即中国、日本和印度在能源方面的忧虑。
美国正酝酿一个可行的能源框架，劝说这些饥渴的买家中止对伊朗能源领域的投资计划，甚至设想伊朗石油出口突然中断的冲击。
政府官员和分析师们对此能否实现表示怀疑，迄今为止，美国的举措似乎起到了相反的效果。
作为石油输出国组织欧佩克(OPEC)第二大产油国，伊朗正赶在联合国安理会(UN Security Council)就制裁问题可能展开讨论之前，加紧与上述三国达成大宗能源交易。
中国的关切
与此同时，上月中国向美方表达了自己的关切，并提出其能源政策三大原则：不干涉他国内政、不进行核扩散、保障中东能源供应安全。
美国敦促中国避免在伊朗投资；而中国表示只要石油供应不受影响，将支持旨在解决伊朗核危机的外交努力。
上周美国成功将伊朗违反核保障承诺的问题提交安理会审议，引发了对伊朗实施制裁的可能性，尽管美国表示，这不是制裁的第一步。然而，美国正趋向“针对性的制裁”（如旅行禁令和冻结高官资产）和成立一个“关切国家”联盟，以达成美国副总统迪克?切尼(Dick Cheney)所说的“有意义的后果”。
美国向中国、日本以及印度和巴基斯坦传达的信息是：不能把伊朗当作一个可靠的能源供应国加以信任。印度和巴基斯坦希望共享一条伊朗天然气管道。
业内认为最大风险就是美国
但布什政府自身的形象也正受到打击。PFC能源咨询公司(PFC Energy)首席分析师法里德?穆罕默德(Fareed Mohamedi)表示：“石油行业普遍认为，该行业面临的最大风险就是美国政府。”他表示，这也是中国的看法，因为美国入侵伊拉克后，伊拉克石油行业被破坏，而美国对伊朗的长期禁运也削弱了该国的能源部门。
为了增强能源供应方面的独立性，中国正在美国“缺席”的地方进行投资，包括伊朗、苏丹、缅甸、乌兹别克斯坦，可能还有委内瑞拉。“他们担心，一旦爆发冲突或冷战，美国将干涉中国的石油供应，”穆罕默德表示。“美国说‘我们可以帮忙’，反而把事情弄得更糟。美国能向中国提供的帮助极少。”
剑桥能源研究协会(Cambridge Energy Research Associates)分析师詹姆斯?普莱克(James Placke)怀疑美国有本事设计出一个能源框架，既将伊朗排除在外，又令亚洲国家满意。“如果伊朗出于任何原因大幅削减或停止出口，世界肯定会在短期内陷入困境。”他评论称，“美国做不了很多。”
方案之一是在国际能源机构(International Energy Agency)的协调下，利用26个工业化国家的油料库存。国际能源机构执行主任克劳德?芒迪(Claude Mandil)最近表示，如果伊朗中止石油出口，紧急储备足以维持18个月。他表示，与伊朗进行谈判的国家“无需担心最终失去伊朗石油供应，因为你有办法解决。”
原油价格能轻易达到每桶100美元
尽管有这些保证，分析师仍表示，如果伊朗真的退出市场，原油价格能轻易达到每桶100美元。
美国继续对日本施加压力，希望其终止2004年与伊朗签署的20亿美元阿扎德干(Azadegan)油田协议。日本在协议中加入一项条款，使其能在伊朗核危机解决不了的情况下解除该协议。
“当然，困难在于伊朗将其石油和天然气作为一件武器，并娴熟地利用这件武器与多个国家周旋。对印度、中国及其它国家都曾使用过，”美国驻联合国大使约翰?博尔顿(John Bolton)向日本新闻机构共同社(Kyodo News)透露。“我希望找到一种解决能源问题的方式，但这对日本而言可能很棘手。我们对此表示理解，但同时认为，在核不扩散问题上保持团结一致很重要。”
日本：美国应先解决中国问题
一位美国官员表示，美国政府觉得对盟友的“影响力大一点”，但日本抱怨称，中国将填补日本留下的投资空白。他表示：“他们要我们先解决中国问题。”伊朗外长马努切赫里?穆塔基(Manouchehr Mottaki)于上月访问东京，他强调，阿扎德干是两国友好关系的象征。
印度和巴基斯坦也是美国担心的对象。尽管布什(George W. Bush)总统在最近出访这两国时，回避这一话题以免冒犯东道国，但白宫(White House)后来澄清，美国仍强烈反对拟议中的连接伊朗―巴基斯坦―印度的这条“和平”管道。
美国副国务卿尼古拉斯?伯恩斯 (Nicholas Burns)敦促印度转向哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦，以满足其能源需求，同时发展洁净煤技术，并通过与美国签署的允许印度发展核武的协议，在美国的帮助下发展民用核能。
这场外交拉锯战还在继续，本周将在伊朗举行管道会谈。
