SARS世卫组织取消北京旅游警告组文

SARS - WHO lifts Beijing travel warning - UPDATE


The World Health Organization has lifted its warning on travel to Beijing with immediate effect, Dr Shigeru Omi, WHO representative for the Asia Pacific region told a news conference.

He said that the WHO has also removed Beijing from its list of areas where SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, has been spreading recently.

Omi added that after analyzing several factors, including the effectiveness of SARS control measures in Beijing, WHO concluded that ""the risk for travelers to Beijing is minimal"".

China's executive vice minister of health Gao Qiang said at the same news conference that China had to remain vigilant to prevent a resurgence of the virus. ""We cannot allow SARS to come back,"" he said.

Gao said the virus had highlighted several shortcomings in the country's health system, particularly in rural areas, as well as problems with coordination between local governments and central authorities.

Omi said the WHO was still investigating the possibility of the disease being seasonal, as well as the likelihood of it remaining alive in animals, which may have been the source of the disease.

""We have to remain alert,"" he said. ""There is no time for complacency.""

Beijing was the last place in the world still under a SARS-related travel advisory following the lifting of WHO advisories for Taiwan on June 17 and Toronto on June 13.

In total, 5,326 SARS cases have been reported in mainland China, with 347 deaths. Beijing reported a total of 2,523 SARS cases, with 191 fatalities.

Omi said the decision had repercussions for the world. SARS has infected more than 8,000 people worldwide since it first surfaced in southern China's Guangdong province last November.
世卫即日取消北京旅警 / 兼除疫区之名

世界卫生组织（WHO）西太平洋地区办公室主任尾身茂（Shigeru Omi）向新闻界宣布，世界卫生组织取消对北京的旅行警告，从即日起生效。
尾身茂表示，世界卫生组织同时将北京从非典型肺炎（SARS）疫区名单中除名。
他提到，在分析北京的SARS防治措施的有效性等因素的基础上，世界卫生组织得出结论：到北京旅行感染SARS疫病的危险是微乎其微的

JP Morgan warns against 'over-optimism' on China; SARS to hit earnings

JP Morgan said in a research note that the SARS outbreak represents a shock to the demand side of China's economy, consumption of goods and services in particular, and warned against ""over-optimism"" following the WHO's removal yesterday of Beijing's travel advisory.

However, the investment bank is sticking to its China 2003 GDP growth forecast of 7.4 pct, revised down from 8.0 pct on April 22, following a comprehensive accounting of the SARS impact on the economy up to that point.

The bank cautioned against overly high expectations for any post-SARS growth this year, saying ""the coming economic upturn in the second half (may) not be phenomenal, but the downturn in the current quarter will not be disastrous.

""Indeed, we urge against over-optimism for the magnitude of economic recovery in China going forward.""

JPMorgan further said it believes the SARS impact will outlive the virus, continuing to negatively impact demand, it said.

""For the services sector, supply usually adjusts quickly to demand changes. But for the goods sector, it will take time for the supply side to respond to the sudden drop in demand, limiting both the downturn in the second quarter, and upturn in the next half.""

Export orders, a critical factor in China's GDP growth over the past several years, will also see continued subpar performance, which will affect industrial activity in the coming six to nine months, the bank said.

The bank cites anecdotal evidence pointing to a buildup in industrial inventory. This, together with lost export orders, will cap industrial output growth for at least the next half.

Investment bank Citigroup also said in a research note that it has upgraded China's 2003 GDP growth forecast to 7.5 pct from 7.0, with the full impact of SARS on full-year GDP growth reduced to 0.5 pct from 1.5.
证券报告 -摩根大通告诫莫对疫后中国经济过于乐观


摩根大通在研究报告中指出，非典疫情爆发对中国经济的需求冲击较大，尤其是商品和服务消费方面。摩根大通告诫，不要因世卫解除中国旅行警告而对中国经济过于乐观。
考虑到非典对经济的影响，摩根大通4月22日将中国经济03年增长预测从8.0%调降至7.4%，该行在今次的研究报告中仍坚持这一预测水平。
摩根大通对非典过后的中国经济增长预期表示谨慎。它指出，中国经济下半年的复苏可能并不引人注目，中国经济第二季遭受的损失可能也并不会特别惨重。
该报告指出，事实上，摩根大通不同意对中国经济将大幅反弹过于乐观。
摩根大通进一步指出，非典的冲击不会随疫情减弱马上消失，而是会继续影响需求。
服务行业对需求变化的反应较快，但商品行业对需求突然变化的反应则需要更长的时间，这样既限制了中国经济第二季度的减缓程度，又限制了中国经济下半年的复苏速度。
摩根大通称，近几年来对中国经济至关重要的出口订单将继续减少，并将在未来6-9个月内对工业活动产生影响。
摩根大通还引述有关消息称，中国的工业库存正在积压。
工业库存积压与出口订单减少, 一起至少将影响中国下半年的工业产值增

HK: Lehman Ups China 2003 GDP To +8%

Lehman Brothers economist Robert Subbaraman upgrades China 2003 GDP growth forecast to 8% from 7.3% (official government forecast is for growth "around 7 per cent"), arguing damage from SARS on economy likely negligible; expects 6.5% on-year growth in both 2Q and 2H after 1Q GDP grew 9.9%
香港

WHO Beijing SARS Move Fuels Bond Worries

Lifting of WHO's SARS advisory on Beijing underscores bond market's worries macroeconomy rebounding; "If there is any impact it will be negative" for bonds, says trader in Beijing; WHO news came after bond market closed, but T-bonds slipped again today, reflecting broader expectations China economy will power through SARS crisis and central bank to now clamp down on credit.
香港

HK: WHO Finally Lifts Beijing SARS Warning

Shadow of SARS over Beijing's tourism, travel and hospitality sectors finally lifts as WHO ends SARS travel warning to China's capital, the last SARS-hit area to be removed from list; vice Health Minister Gao Qiang says normal economic order will now return to China. Still, analysts expect some time before investor sentiment recovers to pre-SARS levels
香港