中国对要求上调人民币汇率的呼声无动于衷

China Is Unmoved by Talk To Revalue Its Currency

SHANGHAI -- Might China be getting ready to revalue its currency?

Don't bet on it.

That's the message emanating from Beijing these days, as central bankers and other policy makers in China seek to quash talk that the nation's currency, the yuan, is ripe for a substantial appreciation. Such talk gained momentum during the past few years as Chinese exports took the world by storm. It gained new traction last week, when U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow suggested it was time for Beijing to stop meddling in the market and let fundamentals set the yuan's value. Given China's yawning trade surplus and huge foreign-investment inflows, such a move could mean only one thing: a stronger yuan.

Yet despite the gathering political pressure, Beijing remains unmoved. Indeed, even as Mr. Snow signaled his desire to see a more flexible Chinese currency regime, China's own finance experts were debating a different issue -- how to increase tax rebates for its exporters, a move that would make Chinese exports more, not less, competitive. Such subsidies, which amount to refunding the value-added taxes paid during the manufacturing process, have long been a major policy tool used by China to keep its export machine humming.

The ways in which China subsidizes its exporters has long been a hot-button topic. But it is even more explosive these days. Because China's currency is effectively pegged to the dollar, each drop -- or rise -- in the U.S. currency amounts to a similar movement in the Chinese unit. With the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, American manufacturers hoped to gain a new measure of competitiveness. But some of those gains have failed to materialize, thanks to the yuan's lock-step fall with the dollar, which has left Chinese exporters with similar currency advantages.

The upshot: As anger among U.S. manufacturers rises, allegations are flying that China is becoming a habitual currency manipulator. For now, that criticism is falling on deaf ears in Beijing. Indeed, the fact that Beijing is considering new ways to support its exporters at such a sensitive moment shows how little interest China has in jeopardizing a crucial pillar of its economy. It also serves as a reminder of how little stock China puts in the raging debate over the proper value of its currency.

"It's simply not in China's interest" to revalue the yuan, says Wang Yuanhong, senior economist with the State Information Center in Beijing. "And certainly the government takes our country's interest as its priority."

It is easy to understand Beijing's position. For China, revaluing its currency offers minimal benefits. Among the most obvious, a stronger yuan would make it cheaper for Chinese companies to purchase foreign assets and expand overseas. It would reduce the nation's foreign-debt load and make it cheaper for Chinese companies to import foreign technology.

Yet for China, the downside of a stronger yuan far outweighs the benefits. By increasing the purchasing power of the yuan, a revaluation would create strong deflationary currents in China -- just as the country is emerging from years of deep price declines. That could make it more difficult for Chinese companies to turn a profit and ultimately compound the problems facing state-owned banks, which are sitting on an estimated $500 billion in bad loans.

Financial Overhaul

A stronger yuan would spell slower growth in the country's foreign-exchange reserves -- possibly delaying financial overhauls. Though China's central bank holds $316 billion in hard currency, central bankers and government economists say more is needed before Beijing feels comfortable liberalizing interest rates and floating the domestic currency.

Perhaps more than anything, Chinese officials fear a stronger yuan could hammer exports and foreign direct investment -- and ultimately job creation. Though China's economy is growing at about 8%, that figure is misleading, Chinese economists say, because some parts of China are seeing little if any growth at all. The result: Aside from a handful of industries such as construction and property development, many new jobs these days are created by Chinese export companies and foreign-invested ones, many of which also export their wares.

In a country with 1.3 billion people and a jobless rate already in double digits, the importance of job creation to China's political leaders can't be underestimated, says Qu Hongbin, an economist with HSBC Holdings in Hong Kong. "Basically, the only way it [revaluation] will happen is if China gets a guarantee from other countries that they will help solve the job problem it creates," Mr. Qu says.

Though a yuan revaluation could benefit companies that manufacture in the U.S., there is a flip side there, too: By making Chinese exports more expensive, a revaluation would hurt a wide swath of U.S. corporations, some of which rank among China's biggest exporters. As the cost of goods produced by U.S. companies in China increases, it could hit the pocketbooks of U.S. consumers, who have been buying Chinese goods in record amounts in recent years.

Motorola Inc., with more than $3 billion invested in China, is one example of how this chain-reaction could play out. Last year, the U.S. telecommunications-equipment maker rang up sales of $5.7 billion in China. However, nearly $2.6 billion of that came from exports, a large chunk of which went to the U.S. A spokeswoman for the company, Mary Lamb, declined to comment on the disadvantages of a stronger yuan, but acknowledged it would translate into higher costs for U.S. consumers who buy goods the company makes in China.

Ticking Higher

Even if China bows to U.S. pressure and allows the yuan to tick slightly higher, Beijing almost is certain to find ways to offset the impact, government economists say. One of the simplest ways is by increasing government tax rebates to exporters.

Though it is unclear if this would be a violation of the terms of China's membership in the World Trade Organization, the effort is already under way. Earlier this month, the country's finance minister was quoted in state media as saying the ministry was working on ways to increase the size of rebates offered exporters -- now about 10% -- while speeding payment of $24 billion in rebates in arrears.

Mr. Wang of the State Information Center says: "The damage of a significant appreciation of the yuan will affect not only China, but the world economy and, in the long run, the U.S. too."
中国对要求上调人民币汇率的呼声无动于衷

中国是否已准备调整人民币汇率了呢？还是不要把宝押在这上面吧。

中国官方最近也是这么暗示的，中国央行的官员和其他部门的决策者们希望能止住所谓人民币大幅升值的时机已经成熟的说法。过去几年来，随著中国的出口产品流向世界各地，上述说法也甚嚣尘上，上周再次引起了人们的关注，当时美国财政部长斯诺(John Snow)表示，中国现在应停止干预市场，让基本面因素来决定人民币汇率。鉴于中国拥有巨额贸易顺差和外资流入，让市场决定必然导致人民币升值。

但是，尽管政治压力不断加大，北京依然不为所动。事实上，就在斯诺表示希望中国能够采取更灵活的外汇政策时，中国财政部门的专家却在讨论另外一个问题：如何提高对出口企业的退税，而这将使中国的出口商品更具竞争力。出口退税是将生产过程中徵收的增值税返还给出口企业。长期以来，中国一直实行这一刺激出口增长的补贴政策。

出口退税政策一直是个热门话题，近来，围绕这一话题的讨论更是到了白热化的程度。 由于人民币实行与美元挂钩的汇率制度，一旦美元升值或贬值，人民币也会随之波动。最近随著美元贬值，美国制造商原本希望其出口产品的竞争力能有所提高，但这一愿望并未充分实现，原因是人民币也随美元同步下跌，中国出口产品的竞争力也相应提高了。

结果，美国制造商的不满情绪日甚一日，对中国惯于操纵人民币汇率的指责也漫天飞扬。但目前北京对这种批评还是置若罔闻。就在这种敏感的时候，北京还在考虑扶持出口企业的新办法，这本身就足以说明，中国无意将作为其重要经济支柱的出口业置于危险境地，同时也表明，中国对眼下如火如荼的人民币汇率之争并不重视。

中国国家信息中心(State Information Center)资深经济学家王远鸿说，调整人民币汇率不符合中国的利益，中国政府当然要把本国利益放在首位。

中国政府的这种立场很容易理解。对中国来说，人民币升值的好处很有限。最显而易见的好处就是，这将降低中国公司购买外国资产和进行海外扩张的成本，还会降低中国外债总额，并使中国公司得以以较低价格进口外国技术。

然而，人民币升值对中国来说弊大于利。人民币升值将导致其购买力提高，从而导致严重的通货紧缩，而中国刚刚摆脱过去几年物价大幅下跌的状况。这可能会使中国公司更难以实现赢利，最终还会加重国有银行面临的问题，这些银行的坏帐总额已达5,000亿美元，到了不堪重负的地步。

同时，人民币升值还将导致中国外汇储备增速放缓，从而有可能推迟金融改革。尽管中国央行拥有3,160亿美元的储备，但央行官员和政府部门的经济学家认为，外汇储备还需要进一步增长，政府才能毫无顾虑地放开利率和汇率。

中国官员最担心的恐怕莫过于人民币升值可能会影响出口和外国直接投资，最终影响到就业。尽管中国经济增长率在8%左右，但是中国经济学家称，这一数字容易产生误导，因为实际上中国有些行业的增长几乎陷入停滞，除了建筑和房地产等很少几个行业外，目前很多新增就业机会都是由本国出口企业和外资企业提供的。

汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings)驻香港经济学家瞿宏斌(音译)说，在一个拥有13亿人口、失业率已达两位数的国家，创造就业机会对中国领导人的重要性可想而知。他说，只有在其他国家保证帮助中国解决因人民币升值而产生的就业问题时，中国才会调整人民币汇率。

虽然人民币升值对在美国从事制造业的中国公司可能有利，但是也有不利的一面，即：人民币升值会导致中国出口产品价格上升，从而对众多在华美国公司造成打击，其中一些企业是中国最大的出口商。随著在华美国公司生产的产品价格上升，近些年来一直大量购买中国产品的美国消费者的利益将受到损害。

在华拥有30亿美元投资的摩托罗拉公司(Motorola Inc.)的例子可以说明上述连锁反应的后果。摩托罗拉去年在华销售额为57亿美元，其中26亿美元来自出口，而其中又有很大一部分来自美国市场。摩托罗拉公司发言人玛丽?兰博(Mary Lamb)不愿对人民币升值对公司的影响发表看法，但她承认，这会导致美国消费者购买的中国产品价格上扬。

政府部门的经济学家说，即便中国屈从于美国的压力，允许人民币微幅升值，中国肯定还会采取其他措施，来抵消升值造成的影响。一个最简单的办法就是提高出口退税。

尽管这一做法是否有违世界贸易组织(WTO)的规定还不能肯定，但官方已开始有所行动。本月初，中国官方媒体援引财政部长的话报导说，财政部正在研究有关措施，上调出口退税比例（目前为10%），同时还在加快发放拖欠的240亿美元的退税款。

国家信息中心的王远鸿说，人民币大幅升值不仅会损害中国，而且会损害世界经济，从长远来说，也将损害美国的利益。

China PBoC says will maintain stable yuan exchange rate; sees H1 GDP up 8 pct

China's currency exchange rate will remain stable, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said.

The country has been facing growing pressure, mainly from the US and Japan, to allow its currency to appreciate in the face of ballooning foreign exchange reserves which now top 300 bln usd.

US manufacturers in particular have complained that China's decision to maintain the yuan's peg to the US dollar, set in a narrow trading band between 8.27 and 8.28 yuan, has boosted the country's export competitiveness.

However, in comments posted on the People's Bank of China website following last weekend's meeting of the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Zhou said the exchange rate would remain stable.

He said the increase in the country's foreign exchange reserves was due mainly to large inflows of capital coming from foreign investors. The country recorded a 30.35 bln usd trade surplus in 2002, but Zhou indicated the government is expecting that to fall significantly this year, with ""imports and exports basically balanced"".

Although the PBoC and other state leaders have pledged to maintain a stable yuan, some senior officials have commented on the possibility of moving to a more flexible exchange rate regime and widening the yuan's trading band.

Many analysts expect the government to widen the trading band over the next two years, but most do not expect to see any significant revaluation.

US Treasury Secretary John Snow said on June 16 and repeated last Thursday that China should be encouraged to move towards a more flexible exchange rate and that he would back any plan to do so.

In his comments on the PBoC website today, Zhou said he expected China's GDP growth to be at least 8 pct in the first half of this year, with the SARS epidemic only having a significant negative effect on specific cities and sectors.
周小川: 将保持人民币汇率稳定 / 料中国经济上半年仍可增8%

中国央行中国人民银行行长周小川称，中国将继续保持人民币汇率的稳定。
中国外汇储备已经猛增至3,000亿美元，人民币开始面临越来越大的升值压力，这些压力主要来自美国和日本。
美国制造商大肆抱怨，称中国采取人民币与美元挂钩的策略，将人民币汇率固定在1美元兑8.27-8.28人民币之间，这种措施大大增强了中国产品的出口竞争力。
但中国人民银行今日在其网站上声明，央行行长周小川上周末在出席瑞士巴塞尔召开的国际结算银行第73届年会时表示，中国将继续保持人民币汇率的稳定。
周小川指出，中国外汇储备的大幅增加主要是资本净流入造成的; 中国2002年的贸易顺差为303.5亿美元，但中国政府预期今年能够实现对外贸易的基本平衡，料贸易顺差会大减。
尽管中国人民银行和国家领导人一再强调保持人民币的汇率稳定，但仍有部分官员就实行更加灵活的汇率制度和放宽人民币的交易范围发表了意见。
不少分析师预测，政府将在未来两年内放宽人民币的交易范围，但多数分析师认为政府不会大幅对人民币价值进行重新评估。
美国财政部长斯诺6月16日和上周四一再表示，中国应促使人民币汇率更加灵活，而他将支持所有致力于此的计划。
中国人民银行在网站的声明中，非典疫情仅对某些城市和行业造成较大的冲击，预计中国经济上半年的增速至少将达8%。

中国暂时不会用调整汇率来平衡贸易
China Central Bank Gov: Making Strides To Lower Tariffs

China's top central banker said Sunday that his country is taking steps to reduce its trade surplus but it's too soon to consider using exchange rates to balance trade flows.

Since the start of the year, China has cut tariff rates and embarked on "important deregulation," People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on the sidelines of meetings of the Bank for International Settlements .

China's "trade balance is being changed," he added.

In 2002, China's trade surplus widened to $30.4 billion from $22.6 billion in the previous year. China's trade surplus was $2.38 billion during the first five months of 2003.

China's currency, the yuan, is pegged to the dollar and the U.S. currency's slide has improved the price competitiveness in China's exports in global markets.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow has encouraged Beijing to adopt a wider yuan trading band.

Noting China's efforts to boost imports via tariff and other barrier reductions, Xiaochuan said:"Later on we'll see whether we need to consider exchange rates."
中国暂时不会用调整汇率来平衡贸易

中国央行(People's Bank of China)行长周日表示，中国正采取措施以减少贸易顺差，但目前考虑利用汇率手段平衡贸易流动还为时尚早。

中国央行行长周小川在出席国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)会议时表示，自今年年初以来，中国已经下调了关税税率，并采取了重大的放松举措。

他补充称，中国的国际收支状况正在发生变化。

2002年中国贸易顺差从上年的226亿美元扩大至304亿美元。2003年头5个月，中国的贸易顺差为23.8亿美元。

中国的货币人民币一直钉住美元汇率，而美元汇率下滑提高了中国出口商品在全球市场的价格竞争力。 美国财政部长斯诺(John Snow)已经敦促中国政府扩大人民币的交易区间。

周小川指出，中国已通过消除关税及其他方面的壁垒来推动进口，他同时表示，今后将决定是否需要考虑汇率手段。

Don't Revalue the Yuan

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow recently raised eyebrows when he suggested that "the Chinese government is interested in moving toward market-based, flexible exchange rates," and Washington would support such a move. His June 16 remarks caused a stir in the foreign exchange markets, and probably accelerated the conversion into yuan of privately held dollar assets in China -- thus increasing the pressure on the yuan to appreciate from its current rate of 8.28 to the dollar.

That only goes to show how, with respect, Mr. Snow is wrong and moving to a flexible exchange rate is far from desirable. Under the present circumstances, floating the yuan would lead to repetitive appreciation. If China stops stabilizing the exchange rate, the yuan will float upward without any well-defined limit -- posing possibly severe domestic deflationary consequences.

Because further appreciations then become more likely, floating could have more serious effects than a one-time appreciation in the yuan. That is evident from the Japanese experience. From the 1970s through to the mid 1990s, a series of appreciations in the yen sent the Japanese economy into a deflationary tailspin and zero interest-rate liquidity trap, from which it has yet to recover.

Why would allowing the yuan to float freely lead to repetitive appreciation? China has become an important international creditor, with an ongoing balance of payments surplus from large inflows of foreign direct investment coupled with a small multilateral trade surplus. Because the dollar is the dominant international currency for borrowing and lending, that results in a continual buildup of liquid dollar claims on foreigners -- a surprisingly high proportion of which are privately held, outside the direct control of the central government.

These ever-accumulating dollar balances need not disequilibriate the portfolios of Chinese savers holding both dollar and yuan assets as long as the yuan/dollar rate remains fixed within a narrow band. That's because a stable exchange rate means Chinese savers will see dollar assets as just as safe as those in yuan.

But once the exchange rate begins to fluctuate (even if the yuan does not immediately appreciate), the dollar assets will look riskier and private holders will begin to dishoard them, forcing an appreciation in the value of the yuan. And this appreciation will repeat itself as China's balance of payments surplus -- large inflows of FDI plus small current-account surpluses -- continues to produce liquid dollar assets that China's private sector will be less and less willing to hold.

As the appreciation continues, domestic price levels in China -- which are now finely balanced between inflation and deflation -- will begin to fall. And as China's financial markets begin to anticipate an ever appreciating yuan and falling prices, interest rates will be pushed down to zero, making it impossible for the People's Bank of China to stop the deflation -- very much like the trap in which Japan now finds itself.

There's already mounting evidence that China's modest internal interest rates -- a deposit rate of about 2% and a standard loan rate of 5.3% -- have become too high. As dollars are converted into yuan, the People's Bank of China has been rapidly expanding its domestic monetary base so that the overall supply of new deposits of Chinese households and firms held by the commercial banks now greatly exceeds the demand for new loans. As in Japan, this puts the banks in a perilous position. And with interest rates unable to fall below zero, the room for rate cuts to correct this supply-demand imbalance is very limited.

While many observers ask what the right level for the yuan/dollar exchange rate should be, that's really missing the point. What's far more important than the precise exchange rate -- whether it be seven, eight or nine yuan to the dollar -- is that it remains stable, eliminating foreign-exchange risk and so making Chinese savers more willing to continue to accumulate an indefinite future stream of dollar assets.

Fortunately, the Chinese government has a lot of credibility invested in the present rate of 8.28 yuan per dollar, which it has now maintained since 1994. And it is important not to squander that credibility by making this central rate more "flexible."

Apart from mercantilist considerations, what is the main analytical argument used by supporters of an appreciation in the yuan? China has had a trade surplus since 1995, except for the first few months of this year when its trade happened to be roughly balanced multilaterally. However, many, if not most, economists believe that China's trade surplus could be reduced -- and even become negative -- if an appreciation in the yuan made Chinese exports more expensive in dollar terms, so that fewer are sold abroad.

But this conventional wisdom is misplaced. China's trade surpluses reflect its surplus savings, just as America's huge ongoing trade deficit reflects the extraordinarily low net savings within the American economy -- zero net personal savings and now large government dissaving from extraordinary fiscal deficits. Changing an exchange rate does not change these net savings propensities in any obvious way. However, in a deflationary world, if one country is forced to appreciate its currency against all its neighbors, the fall in its domestic-currency prices of tradable goods and services will create a downward deflationary spiral in prices and output with a consequent fall in imports. Thus, there is no predictable effect on China's net trade surplus from appreciating the yuan.

However Mr. Snow could be right if he defines flexibility more narrowly, allowing the market value of the yuan to fluctuate within a narrow soft band around 8.28 yuan to the dollar. This would have the big advantage of devolving the task of clearing of China's international payments to the clearing banks, and away from the People's Bank of China. But just as diamonds are forever, so too should be the central rate of 8.28 yuan to the dollar.
人民币汇率问题中国自有主张

美国财政部长斯诺(John Snow)再次敦促中国政府放宽人民币汇率浮动区间，进一步向中国政府施加了加速货币政策改革的压力。

但是，由于这种举动在目前经济环境下肯定会导致人民币升值，当地经济学家已经质疑对人民币重新估价的实际意义。

斯诺前夜在美国表示，应当鼓励中国政府考虑扩大人民币兑美元的交易区间。

他指出，人们已有共识，应该让汇率自由浮动以体现市场力量，创造更好的价格信号，以和基础广泛的自由贸易制度相适应。

这种言论是他上周讲话的翻版，他当时的言论曾推动1年期美元/人民币元不可交割远期合约的贴水扩大到历史最高点。但此后中国货币政策监管当局拒绝了改变政策的建议。

随著中国央行货币政策委员会新成员本周重申对保持存贷款政策和外汇汇率稳定的支持态度，不可交割远期市场摆脱了斯诺最近讲话的影响。

海外的美元/人民币不可交割远期市场行情反映出人们对人民币在未来12个月重新估价可能性的看法。

中国没有境内外汇期货市场。人民币自1994年起只在经常项目下可自由兑换。即便如此，人民币兑美元汇率也被限制在狭窄区间内。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家Sun-Bae Kim预计，中国政府将维持有管理的浮动汇率制，但同时会将汇率上下波动区间在未来6个月内扩大至5%或2.5%，目前的的浮动区间为1%左右。

Kim在斯诺最初讲话之前发表的一份客户报告中表示，由于中国经济基本面的情况非常强劲，因此交易区间的扩大极有可能导致人民币升值。

巨额的外汇储备

尽管中国在2001年底加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)意味著中国经济将向外国竞争者敞开大门，但包括美国在内的国家发现自己的逆差随著中国出口的的强势不减而逐步扩大。

这也引发了来自国际社会的压力，要求中国考虑实行更为灵活的外汇汇率机制以调整贸易不平衡问题。

中国经济学家认为这种外部的争论不会对中国新的领导层产生影响。 北京大学(Peking University)经济学教授宋国青对道琼斯通讯社(Dow Jones Newswires)表示，在这件事上，没有人能够对中国施压。

人民币是否升值完全取决于中国政府如何看待人民币升值令中国受益的问题。宋国青表示，在是否允许人民币升值问题上存在的一个内部争论就是如何处理由巨额外汇储备引发的通货膨胀。

截至3月底，中国外汇储备高达3,160亿美元，高于2002年同期的2,280亿美元，仅次于日本，居于世界第二位。

巨额外汇储备体现了中国在出口和吸引外国投资方面的成功，但消化这些外汇储备也给中国央行带来了货币供应量加速增长的挑战。货币供应量的加速增长可能意味著会出现人们不希望看到的经济过热现象。

宋国青指出，有关人民币升值的一个争论理由就是中国外汇储备持续增长。他表示，外汇储备的增长意味著货币供应总量的增长，这将增加通货膨胀的压力。他补充道，但这个问题未必要通过提高人民币汇率来解决。

因此，他建议政府减少自1998年以来实行的推动国内经济增长的刺激性财政政策。该政策已经将中国预算赤字占国内生产总值的比率由5年前的1%升至大约4%。

中国政府不会杀鸡取卵

中国人民银行(People's Bank of China)货币政策委员会似乎并不为出口强劲导致外汇储备快速增长所困扰。 货币政策委员会成员李扬在最近出版的《中国新闻周刊》上发表文章称，外汇储备正日益成为维持信心的工具，而不只是为进口融资、偿还债务或者捍卫本国货币汇率的手段。

北京天则经济研究所(Unirule Institute of Economics)经济学家张曙光也怀疑单纯的国际社会压力是否能说服中国政府相信人民币升值符合其利益。

张曙光对道琼斯通讯社表示，他估计中国的人民币政策在3至5年内不会发生太大变化。

由于中国依赖出口驱动的增长来实现经济现代化和创造更多就业机会，部分分析师怀疑政策制定者是否会采取行动放弃这种策略。 中国今年前5个月的出口较去年同期几乎增长35%，原因是人民币伴随美元最近的下滑使得中国本已非常强劲的贸易竞争力得到进一步提高。

美国银行(Bank of America)外汇分析师Frank Gong认为中国不会杀鸡取卵。他补充称，希望中国自毁其表现强劲的对外经济部门，以阻止假想中的国内经济过热问题，或者解决和美国的贸易摩擦的想法只是一厢情愿而已。

经济学家: 人民币目前不宜升值

Not the right time to let Chinese yuan appreciate - DRC economist

Now is not the right time to let the Chinese yuan appreciate because China's economic growth would suffer another hard blow in addition to the SARS epidemic,"" Wei Jianing, an economist with the State Council's Development Research Center, said.

""China took responsibility to keep the yuan from depreciating amid the Asian Financial Crisis, thereby helping the rest of the world; and it is unfair to make China relieve pressure (for foreign manufacturers) when China's economy is still in the grip of the SARS epidemic,"" said Wei.

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said on Monday it would keep the Chinese yuan exchange rate ""steady"" in response to yuan appreciation cries from the outside world.

US Treasury Secretary John Snow said on June 16 that ""the Chinese government is interested in moving toward market-based, flexible exchange rates"" and Washington would encourage the move.

Snow's comment triggered market speculation that the yuan may appreciate in international non-deliverable forward markets due to China's 286.4 bln usd hard currency reserves at the end of 2002 and its 42.72 bln usd bilateral trade surplus with the US last year (Chinese official figures).

US figures have its trade deficit with China as being significantly higher.

The US Coalition for a Sound Dollar, composed of 60 trade and business associations, is lobbying the White House to push China to allow the yuan to appreciate, following similar cries from Japanese and Southeast Asian exporters over the last two years.

""Those appeals really hurt the feelings of Chinese people when China has just overcome an unprecedented SARS crisis,"" said Wei.

China's economic growth has been hard hit by SARS. The country's retail sales rose 4.3 pct year-on-year, the lowest monthly growth in five years, as SARS hurt consumer spending.

China's exports in May rose 37.3 pct from a year earlier to 33.84 bln usd, but it is widely speculated that the negative impact from SARS will appear in the coming months.

Wei said China is desperately in need of export growth to stimulate economic development this year as domestic demand has been seriously jeopardized by the virus.

But he added that over the long term, the Chinese currency is likely to be more flexible and market-based, and less stringently pegged to the US dollar over the long term.

""It is possible for the yuan to be pegged to a foreign currency basket, including the US dollar, euro and yen, rather than solely to the greenback, but the change will not happen before the negative impact of SARS abates,"" the Development Research Center's Wei said.

China has pegged the Chinese currency at around 8.277 yuan to the US dollar. The dollar has fallen about 12 pct against the euro this year and more than 20 pct in the last 12 months, sending the Chinese currency down in comparative value as well.

John Anderson, chief Asia economist at UBS in Hong Kong, said earlier that ""six months is probably too soon to see a change in the peg. Twelve months is more likely.""

Marvin Wong, an economist with Merrill Lynch, also said loosening the yuan's peg to the US dollar will not take place anytime soon, and he forecasts the exchange rate to remain flat this year, but to fall slightly to 8.2 from 8.277 next year.
经济学家: 人民币目前不宜升值

国务院发展研究中心研究员魏加宁表示，目前人民币不宜升值，否则饱受非典疫情打击的中国经济还要经历另一次冲击。
魏加宁称，在98年亚洲金融危机中，中国以负责任的态度保持人民币不贬值，防止了该危机向世界其它地区蔓延；而现在中国经济自身遭遇非典疫情冲击，再要让中国去为其它国家（制造商）减压显然说不过去。
在海外"人民币升值"的呼声中，中国人民银行周一表示会继续保持人民币汇率的稳定。
美国财政部部长斯诺在6月16日接受当地媒体访问时说，中国政府正在考虑使人民币汇率政策更加灵活，更符合"市场化"要求，而美国政府将支持中国政府的这一举措。
斯诺的发言引起了国际外汇期货交易市场的强烈反应，投资者纷纷预测一旦人民币汇率制度松动，凭借中国在2002年底2,864亿美元的外汇储备和去年对美国427.2亿美元的贸易顺差，人民币将很快升值。
由美国当地60家贸易和工业企业组成的「健全美元联盟」正向美国政府建议对中国政府施压，迫使人民币升值。而此前两年时间内，来自日本和东南亚各国的出口商要使人民币升值的呼声更一直不绝于耳。
魏加宁表示，在中国刚刚处理完非典这个前所未有的危机的时刻，这些要人民币升值的呼声是对中国老百姓感情的一种伤害。
中国经济承受了来自非典的巨大冲击。5月份社会消费品零售总额按年仅增长4.3％，创5年来单月增长新低；同月中国出口增长37.3％至338.4亿美元，但是普遍预测非典对中国出口的影响将在今后数月内显现。
魏加宁表示，在中国内需遭受非典影响之时，中国迫切需要保持出口增长势头以维持今年经济的稳定发展。
但是他同时也表示从长期角度来看，随着中国改革进程的深入，人民币汇率制度将向着更加市场化，更加灵活的方向迈进。
魏加宁还表示，他们曾经建议让人民币汇率形成制度从目前与美元单一货币挂钩的制度转变为与包括美元、欧元、日元等在内的一揽子货币挂钩的制度。
目前人民币汇率实行与美元挂钩的制度，汇率仅在很窄范围内浮动。自年初以来，美元对欧元的汇率已经下跌了12％，而在过去12个月内，美元兑欧元跌幅更是高达20％，从而人民币也随着美元汇率的下挫而被动贬值。
瑞士UBS银行亚洲首席经济学家John Anderson曾在6月19日在接受XFN访问时表示"今后6个月内将无法看到人民币汇率制度的变化，但是12个月内则非常有可能"。
美林证券经济学家王炎震也预测．在今后数月之内人民币与美元挂钩的汇率制度将不会改变，但是他表示人民币对美元汇价在2004年可能会上浮至1:8.2。

美国商贸团体寻求促使人民升值
US group to push for appreciation of Chinese yuan

The Coalition for a Sound Dollar, a US group of 60 trade and business associations, said it is considering urging the White House to push China to allow the yuan to appreciate, according to a statement released by its law firm Coudert Brothers LLP.

It said the US group will hold a meeting tomorrow to discuss whether to ask the Bush administration to activate Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to force China to reconsider its foreign exchange policies.

According to Section 301, if the US trade representative confirms that some countries have implemented unfair, unreasonable or discriminatory legislation, policies or measures that are harmful to US trade, the US government can take protectionary measures to restrict exports from these countries.

The group said in the press release that China's accumulation of 316 bln usd in foreign reserves proves it is buying US dollars to ""manipulate"" its currency to keep the yuan artificially low and exports cheap.

Unless China ends such practice it will lead to a backlash against free trade in the US, it said.

""China is the most pressing trade issue our member companies are facing,"" Frank Vargo, vice-president of the National Association of Manufacturers, which leads the coalition and represents 14,000 US companies, said in the press release, adding that ""protectionist demands are growing and they're not going away"".

The association said that since 1995, China has pegged the Chinese currency at about 8.3 yuan to the US dollar. The dollar has fallen about 12 pct against the euro this year and more than 20 pct in the last 12 months, sending the Chinese currency down in value as well. Vargo estimates the Chinese currency is undervalued as much as 40 pct.

Wang Chunhong, an official with China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, declined to comment, but said the central government will continue to keep the Chinese yuan stable.

Marvin Wong, an economist with Merrill Lynch, said loosening the peg will very likely cause the yuan to appreciate as a result of China's huge foreign exchange reserves.

But the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, is unlikely to let the yuan float freely in the short term, Wong said.

He forecast the exchange rate of the US dollar against the yuan will remain flat this year, but fall slightly to 8.20 from 8.28 next year.
美国商贸团体寻求促使人民升值

法律事务所Coudert Brothers LLP发表声明称，代表美国60个贸易和商业协会的美国合理美元汇率联合会（US Coalition for a Sound Dollar）正考虑请求美国政府迫使中国人民币升值。
Coudert Brothers LLP称，该会将于明天开会讨论是否请求布什政府启动1974年通过的贸易法案301条款，敦促中国重新考虑其外汇政策。
按照301条款，如果美国贸易代表确认，一些国家采取了不公正、不合理或者歧视性的法律法规、政策或措施损害到美国的进出口贸易，美国政府将采取保护性措施限制来自这些国家的进口。
美国合理美元汇价联合会称，中国拥有外汇储备3,160亿美元，中国利用其外汇储备买入美元干预汇市，使得人民币汇率人为偏低和出口产品价格低廉。除非中国中止这种做法，否则将有可能在美国国内引发反对自由贸易的浪潮。
该会的上级组织－美国全国制造商协会代表14,000家美国企业。美国全国制造商协会副会长Frank Vargo表示，中国人民币汇率低估问题是美国制造企业面临的最紧迫的贸易问题之一，美国企业贸易保护的呼声越来越高，他们不会善罢罢休。
美国全国制造商协会称，自从1995年以来，中国一直将美元兑人民币汇率“钉”在1:8.3左右，今年美元对欧元贬值12％左右，过去12个月则达到20％，带动人民币也贬值很大。
Vargo称，中国人民币汇率被低估了40％。
中国外汇管理局官员王春红拒绝对此发表评论，但指出中央政府将继续保持人民币汇率稳定。
美林证券经济分析师Marvin Wong指出，由于中国有大量的外汇储备，人民币与美元脱钩很可能造成人民币升值。中国央行短期内不大可能让人民币汇率自由浮动。美元兑人民币的汇率今年将继续持平，明年可能从8.28降至8.20