美联储降息25个基点，防范通货紧缩

Fed Cuts Funds Rate 0.25-Pt To 1%; Sees Deflation Risk

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its key interest rate to a 45-year low and signaled it will do whatever it takes to bring an end to an economic downturn that has killed 3 million private-sector jobs since the start of 2001.

Worried that the economy hasn't gained steam despite the end of the war in Iraq, the Fed opted to give it a nudge from two directions. The central bank cut its federal funds rate a quarter percentage point to 1%. It also sought to rally the stock and bond markets by hinting it will keep interest rates low even though it expects the economy to gain steam in coming months.

"Recent signs point to a firming in spending, markedly improved financial conditions, and labor and product markets that are stabilizing," the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee said, having voted 11-2 to cut the rate. "The economy, nonetheless, has yet to exhibit sustainable growth. With inflationary expectations subdued, the committee judged that a slightly more expansive monetary policy would add further support for an economy which it expects to improve over time."

Robert Parry, president of the Dallas Fed, dissented, saying he preferred a half-point cut. In a separate move, the Fed's board of governors also voted to cut the largely symbolic discount rate by a quarter percentage point to 2%.

The decision was a mild surprise to Wall Street: Although all 22 of the primary dealers authorized to buy Treasury bonds directly from the Fed expected a rate cut, a slight majority of them expected a bigger, half-point cut in the funds rate. Still, the cut is likely to give the economy a powerful boost by lowering borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

Over the last two-and-a-half years, the Fed has engaged in one of its most aggressive efforts to revive the flagging U.S. economy. But it has repeatedly come up short. Just when Fed policymakers thought they had engineered a sustainable recovery, terrorists struck New York and Washington on Sept. 11 2001. To mend the economy, the Fed cut interest rates four more times by December. It wasn't enough: the economy lost steam amid a wave of corporate-accounting scandals in 2002.

Last November, the FOMC cut rates one more time and said it was disinclined to make further cuts, on the belief the economy would improve once public anxieties related to the war in Iraq abated. The economy did not improve: it grew just 1.9% in the first quarter of this year and is expected to have grown no more than 2% in the second quarter. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, climbed to a nine-year high. Business investment shrank and consumer confidence dipped.

The Fed, as a result, decided to change tactics in its campaign to revive the economy. Its rate cut Wednesday was the 13th since the start of 2001 but the first since the Great Depression to be aimed specifically at combating the risk of deflation. That posture allowed the central bank to stimulate the economy without fanning bond investors' fears the stimulus might spark inflation in the next few years, analysts said.

Deflation is a spiral of falling prices that can cause economic activity to collapse. Because the broadest measures of inflation in the United States have been declining steadily in recent years and now hover around 1%, Fed policymakers last month began to worry about an outbreak of what Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has called "corrosive" deflation.

The risk actually is "minor," Greenspan said. But by making it the immediate focus of FOMC policy, the central bank managed to engineer a sharp decline in long-term Treasury bond yields and sparked a boom in mortgage refinancings. Stocks, moreover, have rebounded strongly, and economists say financial conditions are the easiest they've been since the start of the downturn.

As a result, most economists now expect the economy to grow rapidly in the second half of 2003 and 2004, boosted both by low interest rates and by the $350 billion package of tax cuts and state aid that Congress enacted in May. The Bond Market Association predicted this week that the economy will accelerate to a 3.4% annual growth rate next year from an estimated 2.3% this year.

"There's a sense that this is a turning point," Diane Swonk, an economist with Bank One in Chicago. "If this recipe doesn't work for the economy, then you have to throw out the economic textbooks. If it does work, it's going to work exceptionally well." The expected acceleration in economic growth should remove the need for the Fed to cut interest rates further, she and other economists said.

Fed policymakers, however, have remained cautious, saying the evidence of an acceleration remains murky so far. Industrial production increased slightly in May after two consecutive months of decline. Housing starts increased 6.1% in May. But businesses continued to cut jobs last month, helping to push the unemployment rate to 6.1%, the highest since 1994.

The FOMC, as a result, is likely to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future. Economists say the downturn since 2001 has created so much slack that the economy would need to rack up an annual growth rate of more than 3% for at least a year and a half to make inflation a credible risk.

As long as inflation isn't a threat, Fed policymakers have indicated they will pay particularly close attention to the pace of job creation. "We still need to get back into the range where job creation is in the range of 100,000 a month," Fed Governor Mark Olson said in an interview recently. Most forecasters say that isn't likely until much later this year. The unemployment rate, however, isn't expected to decline much over the next 18 months.

"I think the Fed will keep interest rates steady until we have the unemployment rate coming down for six months or more," said James Glassman, an economist with J.P. Morgan in New York. That threshold, he said, won't be reached until late 2004 or early 2005.
美联储降息25个基点，防范通货紧缩

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)周三将主要利率降至45年来的最低水平，并表示将采取一切必要措施，来终止经济的低迷状态。2001年以来，疲软的经济已经导致私人企业裁员300万。

由于担心美国经济在伊拉克战争结束后仍缺乏复苏动力，Fed决定从两个方面支持经济。其一是将联邦基金利率下调0.25个百分点至1%。其二是暗示，尽管预计未来几个月经济将获得复苏动力，但仍将把利率保持在较低的水平，以提振股市和债市。

联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC)表示，近期的迹象表明，支出增加、金融环境、劳动力及商品市场显著改善，并趋于稳定。FOMC以11比1的投票结果决定降息，并表示，美国经济还没有出现持续增长的迹象。由于对物价上升的预期较为温和，FOMC认为采取略微扩张的货币政策将推动经济。Fed预计经济将逐渐获得改善。

Fed此举令华尔街略感意外。尽管所有的22家经授权可直接从Fed购买国债的一级交易商均预期Fed将下调利率，但是他们中的多数预计降息幅度将达到0.5个基点。降息将导致商户和消费者的贷款成本下降，从而强有力地推动经济。

多数经济学家目前预计，受低利率及国会于5月份批准生效的3,500亿美元减税和国家援助计划的推动，2003年下半年和2004年的经济将快速增长。美国债券市场协会(Bond Market Association)本周预计，明年的经济年增长率将由今年2.3%的预期增至3.4%。

美一银行(Bank One Corp.)驻芝加哥的经济学家Diane Swonk说，这可能是个转折点。如果降息不能有效推动经济，那经济学教科书就是废纸一堆。如果有效，其效果将非常出色。她和其他经济学家都认为，经济增长率的预期加速将使Fed不必进一步降息。

然而，Fed的政策制定者们依旧保持谨慎态度，他们称，目前为止，经济增长的迹象仍不明朗。5月份的工业产值继连续两个月的下降之后微幅增长。5月份的新屋开工数增长6.1%。但是上个月商界继续裁员，使得失业率高达6.1%，为1994年以来的最高点。

因此美国联邦公开市场委员会有可能在可预见的未来维持较低的利率。经济学家称，始于2001年的经济滑坡导致整体经济异常疲软，除非经济在未来至少一年半的时间里均保持3%以上的年增长率，否则通货膨胀风险将无从谈起。

Fed决策者们表示，只要没有通货膨胀的威胁，他们将尤为关注制造就业机会的步伐。Fed理事Mark Olson最近在接受采访时说，现在需要恢复每月创造100,000个就业机会的水平。多数预言家们称，这在今年年底以前不大可能实现。然而，预计今后18个月的就业率不会大幅下降。

J.P.摩根(J.P. Morgan)驻纽约的经济学家James Glassman说，他认为Fed将继续保持利率的稳定，直到连续6个月或6个月以上下降。他说，这一水平在2004年底或2005年初之前不会实现。

格林斯潘的假想敌 FED WATCH: FOMC Leaves Door Open For More Cut If Needed

Federal Reserve officials clearly believe Wednesday's interest rate cut will prove to be the last shot in an unprecedented battle to get the economy back on track.

But in case they're wrong, they hinted a further easing could come if inflation doesn't heat up a bit more.

The Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday lowered its overnight federal funds target rate to 1.00%, from 1.25%. The easing was smaller than what most economists predicted, and it disappointed bond market bulls who'd been counting on a move down to a 0.75% federal funds rate.

The letdown was compounded by the fact that everything in the FOMC's policy statement points to a central bank that thinks after 11 easings in 2001, one in 2002, and Wednesday's cut, monetary policy needs no further easing. Indeed, the prime reason for the most recent cut was as insurance against somewhat ephemeral deflationary concerns.

The policy shift suggests Greenspan is "still chasing the windmill" and that he engineered an interest rate cut because he fears falling into the same deflationary trap that has ensnared the Bank of Japan for the last decade, said Richard Yamarone, economist with Argus Research in New York.

That the rate cut fell on the more modest side "really has a lot to do with the psychology" of pushing the funds rate below 1%, which would for some signal desperation on the part of the central bank, Yamarone said.

Silver Lining For Bears?
But those disappointed by the Fed's moderate action were able to find some solace in the fact that the central bank left itself space to lower interest rates again.

That's because the FOMC statement, in flagging the neutral outlook on growth, said the possibility of a further drop in already weak inflationary pressures "is likely to predominate for the foreseeable future." Those words keep the speculative deflation threat over the economy's head as long as Greenspan wants it to be there.

Dana Johnson , economist with Banc One Capital Markets in Chicago, said "there is no chance of tightening and there is a chance of an ease of the next six months," although there's little to suggest that easing will be necessary.

Any tightening is precluded by the fact that "there's no way in the world" the economy could grow in a fast enough manner over the next number of months to stir inflationary fears to worrisome levels, he said.

Like Johnson, a wide range of other economists agree that after cutting rates from 6.5% at the beginning of 2001, the easing cycle is now in all likelihood over. But they'll be hesitant to say the cycle has definitively concluded until price measures tick up a bit, and labor market conditions spring back to life.

That puts the Fed watching camp back in the economic fundamentals game. Indeed, part of the problem handicapping Wednesday's FOMC outcome was the fact that the undefined nature of the deflation fears flagged by the Fed meant making a prediction was somewhat divorced from the data. Now, the numbers are back in the forefront of the mix.

It's the FOMC's desire "to keep interest rates at relatively low levels until a time when disinflationary pressures subside," said Bill Quan, economist at Mizuho Securities in Hoboken, N.J. "The economic data will prove to be critical in determining whether the FOMC chooses to ease again at the August FOMC meeting," he said.
格林斯潘的假想敌

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称Fed)的官员们明显认为，周三的降息将成为振兴经济这一空前战役中的最后一击。

但为防止预测失误，他们同时暗示，在通货膨胀没有继续升温的情况下，会考虑进一步放宽货币政策。

美国联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC)周三将隔夜联邦基金目标利率从1.25%下调至1.00%。降息幅度小于多数经济学家的预期，而且令债券市场的多头感到失望，他们曾憧憬联邦基金利率会降至0.75%。

在降息之余，FOMC政策声明的字里行间还透露出这样的信息：在经过2001年的11次降息、2002年的1次降息以及周三的降息后，货币政策已无需进一步放松。的确，最近一次降息主要是为应对暂时性的通货紧缩担忧而采取的保险性措施。

Argus Research驻纽约的经济学家理查德?雅马荣(Richard Yamarone)表示，这一政策转变表明格林斯潘(Greenspan)仍在与假想敌进行搏斗，他决定降息是因为担心陷入已困扰日本央行10年之久的通货紧缩陷阱。

雅马荣说，降息较为温和实际上主要是出于避免将联邦基金利率推低至1%以下的心理，因为低于1%，则可能意味著央行已经有些绝望。

空头仍然存在希望?

但是那些对Fed温和降息举措感到失望的人也能够从以下事实中获得一些安慰，即央行仍然为再度降息留有余地。 FOMC的声明中对增长前景持中性看法，并表示，在可以预见的未来，在已经微弱的通货膨胀压力下，进一步降息的机会可能占据上风。这些措词令猜测中的通货紧缩威胁始终笼罩在经济之上，只要格林斯潘需要它存在。

Banc One Capital Markets驻芝加哥的经济学家戴纳?约翰森(Dana Johnson)称，在今后6个月内，没有加息的机会，只有降息的可能，尽管没有多少迹象表明降息是必要的。

他表示，加息机会被排除的原因是，全球经济不可能迅速增长到足以在未来数月内引发通货膨胀担忧的水平。

和约翰森一样，其他许多经济学家也认为，自2001年初利率从6.5%开始下调以来，降息周期目前很可能已经结束。但是，除非价格指数有所上升，劳动力市场恢复生机，否则他们不敢确定降息周期已最终完结。

这将使Fed观察阵营回到经济基本面上来。的确，对FOMC周三的决策形成困扰的是，Fed表示的通货紧缩担忧在本质上是不明确的，这意味著要作出预测多少会和经济数据有些脱节。目前，经济数据将重新成为人们关注的焦点。

瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)的经济学家Bill Quan说，FOMC渴望将利率保持在相当低的水平上，直到通货紧缩压力减轻为止。他说，经济数据非常关键，将决定FOMC是否会在8月份的FOMC会议上再度降息。

降息可能导致经济过热？

世界大企业联合会(Conference Board)周四称，Fed周三采取的降息举措并无必要，而且可能给美国经济带来麻烦。

该组织首席经济学家福斯特(Gail Foster)称，美国经济前景已经出现好转，且过去的商业周期表明未来几个月的价格压力可能增大，因此完全没有必要将货币政策进一步放松。

福斯特在一份新闻稿中称，金融市场和Fed选择在此时听信全球通货紧缩问题的言论非常奇怪，甚至是危险的举动。

与此同时，许多分析师则表示，他们预计利率将下调的唯一原因是Fed此前已经作出了倾向于降息的表示。而Fed的预期与公布的经济数据形成鲜明对比，因为数据已经显示经济增长率将有所提高。

福斯特称，Fed出于对通货紧缩的担心而放松货币政策，但这种担心完全没有意义。当前的经济力量已经足以创造一个价格上扬的环境，而Fed的降息举措则可能导致经济增长过热。
过去几个月以来，由Fed引发的对通货紧缩的恐惧以及各家银行对维持低利率水平的明显支持态度已经使得国债收益率达到历史性低点。一些人士因而担心国债市场现在已经产生了资产泡沫。