China's Economy Soars 11.3%; More Fiscal Restraint Expected
BEIJING -- China's economy is picking up more speed, expanding by 11.3% in the second quarter of this year from a year earlier despite Beijing's efforts to slow the pace.
The figure released Tuesday by the National Bureau of Statistics highlights the failure of measures by Beijing to rein in expansion and avoid overheating. It is likely to dismay Chinese leaders who began clamping down more seriously after data showed the economy expanded by 10.2% in the first quarter. The first-quarter number was later revised to 10.3%.
For the first half of the year, the economy expanded by 10.9%. The Chinese economy is increasing by the fastest pace in roughly a decade.
The fear is that an overheated economy is producing excessive investment that could lead to industrial overcapacity, falling profits and, eventually, a crash caused by mass bankruptcies.
Many Chinese and foreign economists expect authorities will be forced to raise bank-interest rates for a second time this year, and issue more aggressive instructions to banks to curb lending. Reducing lending is the best way to bring down investment in a bank-dominated economy.
In releasing the data, statistics bureau spokesman Zheng Jingping characterized growth as "fast and stable." Nevertheless, he said in a statement that investment in fixed assets was "excessive" and the supply of credit was "overscaled."
One of the root causes of expansion is excess money in the economy, partly the result of trade surpluses with the U.S. and other trading partners. As dollars flood into China as payment for exports, they are bought by the central bank in return for yuan, a process that keeps the value of the yuan stable. Some of the surplus of yuan ends up being lent out by banks, swelling investment that is running far too hot.
The figures showed that fixed-asset investment increased by 30% in the first half of this year on a national basis. Industrial output for the month of June was up 20%. Retail sales for the month expanded 14% from the same month a year earlier.
Authorities have been comforted by the fact that inflation is low. Tuesday's figure shows that it is creeping up, with the consumer-price index in June up 1.5% from a year earlier after rising 1.4% in May.
In the first half of this year, banks have dished out 87% of the whole year's loan target set by the central bank.
Yet few economists believe Beijing is prepared to tackle the problem of easy money by allowing the yuan to appreciate more steeply, a move that could help narrow the trade surplus by making China's exports more expensive in dollar terms and its imports cheaper.
Last month's trade surplus hit its highest level ever of $14.5 billion, helping to balloon the surplus for the first half to $61.45 billion, 54% bigger than the surplus for the same period a year earlier. After tripling to $102 billion for the whole of last year, the surplus this year is on track to reach $150 billion or more.
The increasing surplus risks a protectionist backlash in Washington, where the Bush administration is pressing China to allow its currency to appreciate faster.
Beijing is scrambling to cool overheated parts of the economy, including property markets in several large cities, without derailing rapid expansion needed to create jobs. In April, the central bank lifted benchmark one-year bank lending rates by 0.27 percentage points to 5.85% from 5.58%. This month it raised the reserve requirement ratio for commercial banks -- the amount of money banks must deposit with the central bank -- by half a percentage point to 8%. For every $100 dollars of deposits, banks must set aside $8 in reserves, meaning the money can't be lent out.
Some economists believe another lending-rate increase of a similar magnitude is imminent. They speculate that it may be accompanied by a simultaneous increase in bank-deposit rates. That is because banks make most of their money from the difference between the low interest rates that they pay depositors and the higher rates they charge borrowers, and widening that so-called spread by raising lending rates might encourage banks to lend more.
But authorities are in a bind. If they raise interest rates sharply enough to cause a significant drop in lending, they risk attracting new inflows of speculative money betting that eventually the yuan will have to appreciate. Those inflows will add to liquidity in the domestic economy, undermining the effectiveness of the rate increases.
中国上半年经济增长10.9%
尽管中国政府采取了一系列给经济降温的举措，但上半年中国经济增长仍有所加快，增幅达到10.9%。
国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)周二公布了此项数据。数据表明，中国政府抑制经济扩张、避免经济过热的举措并未收到成效。在第一季度数据显示国内生产总值(GDP)增长10.2%后，中国领导人采取了更加严厉的举措，而目前的结果可能会让他们感到沮丧。第一季度数据后来被修正为增长10.3%。统计局还公布二季度国内生产总值较去年同期增长11.3%。
很多中外经济学家预计政府将实施今年的第二次加息，并对银行抑制贷款业务提出更严格的指导意见。
经济领域资金过度充足成为增长加速的一个根本原因，而资金过度充足的部分原因是中国对美国及其他贸易伙伴国的巨额贸易顺差。随著出口扩大，大量美元涌入中国，央行为了保持人民币汇率的稳定性不断买入美元，放出人民币。多余的人民币最终以银行贷款的形式进入经济流通领域，致使本已过热的投资进一步膨胀起来。
数据显示，上半年固定资产投资较上年同期增长30%。6月份工业产值增长了20%。当月零售额较上年同期增长14%。
一个令人宽慰的消息是，通货膨胀得到了控制，6月份消费者价格指数较上年温和上升1.5%，5月份的升幅为1.4%。
上半年，银行业放贷额占央行确定的全年放贷目标的87%。
不过很少有经济学家认为央行将通过允许人民币大幅升值的方式来解决货币供应宽松的问题，人民币升值将使以美元计的中国出口商品价格上涨，使进口价格下降，从而有助于缩小中国的对外贸易顺差。
上个月中国贸易顺差达到创纪录的145亿美元，上半年614.5亿美元，较上年同期高出54%。继去年顺差增长两倍达到1,020亿美元后，今年的顺差额很可能超过1,500亿美元。
贸易顺差扩大有可能招致来自华盛顿保护主义者的攻击，布什政府一直在向中国政府施压，要求人民币更快升值。
北京方面正在想方设法在不妨碍经济迅速增长、以保证新增就业机会的同时给房地产等增长过快的经济领域降温。今年4月，央行将基准的1年期银行贷款利率上调了0.27个百分点至5.85%。本月，央行又将商业银行存在央行的存款准备金比率上调0.5个百分点，至存款总额的8%。
一些经济学家预计，央行很快将把贷款利率再上调类似幅度。他们猜测，央行同时还会上调银行存款利率。因为存贷款息差是商业银行最大的利润来源，如果因上调贷款利率导致息差扩大会激励银行增加放贷。
但主管部门现在是左右为难。如果存款利率上调幅度过大、导致贷款业务大幅下滑，则有可能吸引更多预期人民币必定会升值的热钱流入国内市场。这些热钱将增加国内经济领域的流动性，从而削弱加息的调控效果。
有鉴于此，一些经济学家认为，北京方面将不得不退回到用行政手段实施调控。央行正在与四大商业银行举行会议，敦促他们放慢贷款业务。
这些磋商（即所谓“窗口指导”）似乎已产生一定效果，虽然还很不够。6月份，银行贷款较去年同期的增幅降至14%，5月份的增幅是15%。
