In Japan's Car Market, Bigger Isn't Better
Unless you just crawled out of a cave, or a Lincoln, you've already read all about it. Big, old-school carmakers accustomed to dominating their home market are seeing sales drop as buyers snap up smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles they might have scoffed at a few years ago.
But in Japan, the story has a twist: the brands on the losing side of the story include none other than Toyota, Honda and Nissan. Even as they siphon U.S. market share from General Motors and Ford, Japan's Big Three are in the midst of a historic sales decline in their home markets. In July, Toyota saw its domestic sales of ordinary passenger vehicles fall 3% on the year, according to figures compiled by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. Nissan lost 20%, while Honda dropped 23%. Overall, Japanese domestic auto sales are at their lowest point in more than three decades.
The numbers help explain why Japan's big makers have been expanding so fervently in overseas markets: it's their only hope.
So who, or what, has Toyotaed Toyota and Hondaed Honda?
The culprit, at least in part, is a type of vehicle rarely found outside Japan: the minicar. Defined by the government as a passenger vehicle with an engine smaller than 660cc, these glorified motorcycles have a long history in Japan but have never made the leap to overseas markets.
They're a little more than half the weight of ordinary cars and about 40% more fuel efficient, delivering an average of 42 miles per gallon. Most are second vehicles and used for short trips around the neighborhood. Because they don't meet the central government's minimum engine size for auto registration, they aren't subject to the same heavy fees as regular cars.
The market leaders are mostly second-tier industry names like Suzuki Motor and Toyota subsidiary Daihatsu Motor. In the first half of 2006, a record 1.01 million minicars were sold, according to the Japan Mini Vehicle Association. All other vehicle types in Japan have suffered sales drops, with compact cars faring the worst as their suitors veer toward minimodels.
Suzuki shares have risen 26% since the start of the year, compared with a 14% gain for Honda and a 1% drop for Toyota.
In July, minicar sales rose 3.1% on the year to 172,000, compared with 318,000 ordinary passenger vehicles. Non-minicar sales fell 9.1%. Suzuki (not surprisingly, better known as a motorcycle maker) took the top spot with a 31% market share, while Daihatsu had 28%. Honda snagged 13% and Fuji Heavy Industries, maker of the Subaru brand, staked out an 11% share. (A curious statistic: of the 172,000 minicars sold, precisely eight were imported.)
The minicar boom propelled Suzuki to 20% profit growth last quarter. Daihatsu posted a 5% quarterly rise and expects to sell nearly 700,000 minicars this year.
"They're smaller, easier to operate and they're a much better product than they used to be," said Kurt Sanger, an auto analyst at Macquarie Securities in Tokyo. A tightening of minicar safety standards in 1998 has helped fuel the market's growth, he added.
Seniors, women drive sales
According to the Japan Mini Vehicle Association, senior citizens are helping drive minicar sales. Twenty percent of the Japanese population is over 65, and the figure is rising rapidly due to Japan's low birth rate and high life expectancy. In 2005 people over 65 accounted for 22% of minicar drivers, up from 7% in 1993. In the same period, the percentage of minicar users under 30 was nearly halved. In Japan's more rural areas, nearly half of minicar drivers are over 65.
"If you're retired and on a fixed income, you're not going to be making large capital purchases," said Sanger.
Another demographic trend: minicars are appealing more to women. In 2003, 65% of users were women, even though as recently as 1989 minicar usage was largely gender-neutral. That's partly because minicars have been aggressively marketed toward women, as well as people looking for an affordable set of wheels. Lower-end models cost about $6,000.
"For people on a budget they're very cheap and cheerful cars," said Christopher Richter, an analyst at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Tokyo.
Honda, among other makers, has been expanding its minicar offerings. In March it added a sixth model, the Zest, to its lineup, which includes the Vamos and the That's. The company intends "to enhance the minicar product lineup," said Yasuhiro Nakamoto, a Honda spokesman in Tokyo. Honda's share of the minicar market rose 4% in July compared with a year ago
Nissan also offers minicars, but doesn't make them itself. Instead, it sells rebranded models manufactured by Suzuki and Mitsubishi. The arrangement gives it a modest market share, but limits profit margins.
"It's a third of the market so [the big auto makers] have to take it seriously," said Macquarie's Sanger. "They'd rather not, because the prices are lower and you're competing against the volume players who have better economies of scale."
But with the pint-size vehicles now accounting for a growing market share, the big players can't afford to stay on the sidelines. "It's not that hugely profitable of a market, but makers do want to be in there because it's a way of retaining customer loyalty," said Richter.
Competition heats up
As the sector becomes larger, it's also getting more competitive. "Competition among minicar models, as well as competition from compact car models, is expected to intensify, as sales volumes of new vehicles remain flat in Japan," said Satoru Hiraki of J.D. Power Asia Pacific in a press release.
According to the company's latest survey of Japanese minicars, the top-rated models are the Honda Life, Daihatsu Move Latte and Suzuki Lapin. The study also found that the quality gap between top models is decreasing as the market matures.
Minicars are, of course, only one of the factors causing Japan's mainstream auto market to decline. Japanese consumers have long had a much faster car turnover rate than their U.S. counterparts, but lately they've been starting to hold on to their autos longer. The average age of a passenger car rose from 4.9 years in 1995 to 6.6 years in 2004, according to industry data.
There are also more goods and services competing for disposable income these days, especially at the high end. "The thing to have to feel wealthy was a car in the early 90s, and now maybe that's shifted to other consumer goods like cell phones and plasma TVs," said Sanger.
And in large Japanese cities, which have impeccable public transportation systems, an automobile is more of an occasional tool than the all-consuming extension of self it's become for Americans. All of which points to a continuing trend toward smaller, more functional cars.
Ilya Garger
在日本汽车市场上，并非越大越好
如果你不是刚从洞穴或林肯(Lincoln)老爷车中爬出来的，你肯定已了解到汽车市场上的新动向：那些已习惯于统领本土市场的大型老牌汽车生产商的销售量不断下降，因为消费者开始争先恐后地购买更加节能的微型车，尽管他们在数年前可能对这些车型根本不屑一顾。
双语阅读
? In Japan's Car Market, Bigger Isn't Better但是日本市场的此类消息却显得有点蹊跷：销售量下降正是丰田(Toyota)、本田(Honda)以及日产(Nissan)等大生产商。虽然它们在美国市场上从通用(General Motors)以及福特(Ford)手中抢得了大量市场占有率，但是这三大日本汽车生产商在其本土市场上正处在一个历史性的销量下降期。根据日本汽车经销商协会(Japan Automobile Dealers Association)编制的数据，丰田普通轿车7月国内销量较去年同期下降了3%。日产下降了20%，本田的下降幅度更是高达23%。总体来看，日本国内汽车销售量目前处在30多年来的最低水平。
这些数字也有助于解读日本大汽车生产商积极在海外市场扩展业务的原因：那些市场是它们仅有的希望。
那么是谁、或者是什么将丰田和本田在本土市场的辉煌变成了“过去时”？
“罪魁祸首”之一是一种不太可能在日本本土以外看到的交通工具：微型车。根据日本政府对此类车的定义：它的排气量应该小于660毫升。这种如今美名远扬的机动车在日本拥有悠久的历史，但却从来都没有跨入海外市场。
微型车的重量是普通轿车的一半多，且比后者节能约40%多，每加仑汽油平均可以行驶42英里。大多数微型车是日本家庭的第二辆汽车，主要用于在周边地区短途行驶。由于它们没有达到日本政府关于汽车注册所规定的最小引擎尺寸，因而不必缴纳普通汽车的各类高额费用。
微型车市场的领头羊主要是一些二线汽车生产商，如铃木汽车(Suzuki Motor)以及丰田旗下的大发汽车(Daihatsu Motor)等。根据日本小型车辆协会(Japan Mini Vehicle Association)的数据，微型车销量在2006年上半年创下历史新高，达到101万辆。其他所有车型在日本的销售量全线下降，其中小型轿车的处境最糟糕，因为它们的“追求者”都移情别恋转向微型车了。
铃木汽车的股票今年以来飙升了26%。与此相比，本田股票同期仅上涨了14%，而丰田更是下挫1%。
微型车7月销量较去年同期增加了3.1%至172,000辆，普通轿车同期销售量为318,000辆。非微型车销售量下降了9.1%。铃木（无疑，它作为摩托车生产商的知名度更高）在微型车市场的占有率为31%，位居榜首；大发汽车紧随其后，为28%。本田获得了13%的市场，而生产Subaru品牌的富士重工(Fuji Heavy Industries)获得了11%。（统计数据的奇怪之处：在售出的172,000辆微型车中，正好有8辆是进口的。）
微型车的迅速发展推动铃木汽车上季度利润飙升20%。大发汽车的季度利润上升5%，并且它预计将在今年销售近700,000辆微型车。
麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)驻东京汽车分析师库尔特?桑格(Kurt Sanger)说，微型车体积较小，比较容易操作，而且现有车型比以前完善了很多。他还补充道，微型车安全标准在1998年经过修订后更加严格，这也促进了这个市场的增长。
老年人及女性推动销售量增长
根据日本小型车辆协会的数据，老年人是微型车销售量上升的动力之一。在日本的总人口中，65岁以上的人口占20%。由于日本的人口出生率偏低且平均寿命较高，这个比例还将快速升高。在2005年，微型车驾驶者中22%的年龄超过65岁，这个比例高于1993年的7%。同期，年龄低于30岁的微型车使用者人数下降了近一半。在日本的农村地区，微型车驾驶者中接近半数的人都超过了65岁。
桑格说，如果你退休了，并且只有固定收入，那就不太可能购买高价商品。
从人口统计学来看，还有一种趋势：微型车对女性的吸引力比较大。在2003年，65%的微型车用户是女性，然而直到1989年微型车用户的男女比例还基本相当。这个新变化的原因之一是微型车的市场营销策略一直积极围绕女性以及寻找低价车型的客户群展开。低端微型车的售价约为6,000美元。
里昂证券亚太区市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)驻东京的分析师克里斯托弗?里克特(Christopher Richter)说，对于预算有限的人们来说，微型车非常便宜而且是个令人愉快的选择。本田等公司也一直在扩大微型车产品系列。本田今年3月推出了Vamos以及That's等六款Zest系列车型，为其微型车家族再添新成员。本田驻东京发言人表示，公司准备扩大微型车产品系列。本田7月份在微型车市场的占有率较去年同期上升了4%。
日产同样出售微型车，但是公司不生产这种车。它销售由铃木以及三菱汽车(Mitsubishi)生产的、重新贴牌的微型车。这种做法使它获得了一定的市场，但利润增长却非常有限。
桑格说，微型车市场占整个日本汽车市场的三分之一，因此大汽车生产商不得不重视它。他们并不希望如此，因为这样的话，价格会变得更低，而且现有生产商必须与那些规模经济效益更好的生产商进行竞争。
但是随著这种小型机动车的市场占有率不断增加，大生产商无法承受不参与其中所带来的损失。里克特说，这并不是一个高利润的市场，但是生产商就是要进入它，主要是因为这也是维护客户忠诚度的一种途径。
竞争升温
随著微型车行业不断扩大，该领域的竞争也日益激烈。J.D. Power Asia Pacific的Satoru Hiraki在一份新闻稿中写道，由于日本汽车销售量不会有太大改观，预计微型车车型之间的竞争将会更加激烈，来自小型轿车的压力也会更大。
根据该公司对日本微型车的最新调查，排在前几位的微型车车型是本田的Life、大发的Move Latte以及铃木汽车的Lapin。研究还发现，随著市场的不断成熟，高端车型的质量差距在不断缩小。
当然，微型车只是日本主流汽车市场销售量下降的影响因素之一。长期以来，日本消费者报废汽车的速度比美国消费者要快，但是最近几年来前者对同一辆汽车的保有时间开始变长。根据日本汽车行业数据，轿车的平均寿命已经从1995年的4.9年延长至2004年的6.6年。
另外，人们的可支配收入现在需要分配给更多的商品及服务，特别是在高端产品方面。桑格说，在20世纪90年代初，拥有一辆汽车会使人感到自己很富有。但是现在能够带来同样感受的东西可能已变成了手机或等离子电视机等其他消费类商品。
另外，日本的大城市通常都有完善的公共交通系统，汽车只是偶尔使用的工具，而不像在美国那样成为了消费行为的延伸。这一切都表明了一个将持续发展下去的趋势：消费者将选择更加小巧、功能更完备的汽车。
Ilya Garger
