China Mobile
Just what the world needs: another spendthrift telecommunications carrier. In the wake of erstwhile acquisitive operators like the UK's Vodafone, China Mobile is now planning a shopping spree.
It is inevitable that the world's biggest mobile operator, with 280m subscribers, should want to flex its muscles. It has the firepower, with net cash of $12.6bn. There have been set backs - the abrupt cancellation of the $3.5bn purchase of emerging markets operator Millicom last month and, in 2005, the failure to win a stake in Pakistan Telecom (PTCL). But these partly reflected commendable price discipline; PTCL went for more than twice China Mobile's bid. China Mobile's operating record is strong.
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That, of course, is precisely why it should spurn the "go out" policy and instead stay home. China has huge pockets of untapped growth, which China Mobile has proved adept at exploiting. Take farmers; more than half the operator's 26m new subscribers in the first half came from rural areas. Lower usage revenues are partially offset by lower acquisition costs, which are up to a third less than in the cities. On the spending side, China Mobile is already planning about $10bn of capital expenditure this year, and budgets will climb higher once the government gives the go-ahead to third-generation networks.
Nor is 3G the only regulatory risk. Beijing is still grappling with ways to deal with its experiment in competition and technology standards, which has left Unicom struggling far behind its peers. China Mobile could end up shouldering some of the cost, either by inheriting parts of Unicom or through asymmetrical regulation targeting the dominant player. Taking on investments overseas - where it has no track record - during times of domestic uncertainty could prove to be unnecessarily bold.
中国移动何须“走出去”
这
个世界正需要再来一家“大手笔”的电信运营商。继英国沃达丰(Vodafone)之类老牌的“贪婪运营商”偃旗息鼓之后，现在，中国移动(China Mobile)正计划大举收购。
坐拥2.8亿用户，这家全球最大的移动电话运营商难免想要展示自己的力量。它具有实力――手头的净现金高达126亿美元。但它也曾遭遇过挫折――上个月，它突然撤销了对新兴市场运营商Millicom价值35亿美元的收购报价，而在2005年，其竞购巴基斯坦电信(PTCL)股权的行动也以失败告终。不过，这些失败在某种程度上反映出值得称道的价格原则；巴基斯坦电信所售股权的成交价几乎是中国移动报价的两倍。中国移动的运营记录不错。
当然，这恰恰说明，该公司应该放弃“走出去”政策，而固守国内市场。中国市场存在某些尚未开发的领域，中国移动其实很善于挖掘这些领域的增长潜力。就拿农村市场来说：今年上半年，在这家运营商2600万新增用户中，半数以上来自农村地区。尽管农村地区的每用户平均营收较低，但获得这些用户的成本最多能比城市节省三分之一，部分抵消了营收较低的影响。在支出方面，中国移动今年的资本支出预算已经高达约100亿美元，而一旦政府批准建设第三代移动通信(3G)网络，其预算还将攀升。
3G也不是惟一的监管风险。中国政府在竞争和技术标准方面的各种尝试，已导致中国联通(Unicom)远远落后于其业内同僚；对此，北京仍在寻找出路。中国移动最终可能不得不承担其中的部分代价，要么接管中国联通的部分资产，要么接受针对主要运营商的不对称监管。在国内尚存不确定因素之时进行海外投资，涉足自己陌生的地域，也许是没有必要的莽撞之举。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。
