中国外汇储备势将突破一万亿美元
Beijing leaders see benefits in record reserves
China’s swelling foreign exchange reserves, which are on track to top a record $1,000bn within weeks, could be used to moderate the impact of any economic slowdown or financial crisis, according to the country’s leaders.
Wen Jiabao, prime minister, and Zeng Qinghong, a vice-president, have both made public comments this week putting a largely positive spin on the potential uses of the reserves, which reached $955bn (�735bn, ￡500bn) at the end of July.
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With the reserves growing by about $20bn a month, fuelled by a large trade surplus, speculative capital inflows and foreign investment, the total is likely to surpass $1,000bn by the end of September or October.
The foreign exchange reserves have been held up critically as a symbol of the imbalances of China’s economy and its over-reliance on exports, and also the downside of its tightly managed renminbi currency.
Mr Wen and Mr Zeng both acknowledged the pressure on the monetary authorities in managing the large inflows of money.
While the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, issues short-term bills to absorb most of the inflows out of the domestic financial system, the wave of incoming funds makes it difficult for the government to control money supply.
But Mr Wen and Mr Zeng said the reserves had benefits, such as funding raw materials purchases and the acquisition of technology.
“The increase in reserves has improved China’s overall national strength as well as its international payment capability and its ability to fend off risks,” Mr Wen said, according to a Reuters transcript of an interview with foreign reporters released late on Tuesday. “We have expanded the use of the reserves, by pro-actively increasing the import of products and advanced technology and using part of [the money] to support monetary and enterprise reform.”
The government, for example, used about $60bn from the reserves in recent years to fund the recapitalisation of state banks.
Mr Zeng, China’s fifth-ranked leader, told a local paper that “a greater proportion” of the reserves could be spent on imports of strategic raw materials and “high-tech equipment to modernise state enterprises”.
The comments by the two leaders reflect an intensifying internal debate about how to manage or to spend the money and also bureaucratic jockeying in regard to its control.
Some officials have pushed, for example, for the reserves to be used to fund China’s strategic oil reserves.
The composition of the foreign exchange reserves are a state secret, but about 70 per cent is believed to be held in US dollars, about 20 per cent in euros, and the rest in other currencies, predominantly yen.
中国外汇储备势将突破一万亿美元
中国领导人表示，迅速增长的外汇储备，可以用来缓解经济减速或金融危机造成的影响。在数周内，中国的外汇储备势将达到创纪录的1万亿美元。
中国国务院总理温家宝及国家副主席曾庆红本周均发表公开评论，对外汇储备的潜在用途表达了颇为正面的看法。
截至7月底，中国的外汇储备为9550亿美元。受到巨额贸易顺差、投机性资本流入及强劲的外国投资的推动，中国的外汇储备每月增长约200亿美元。以此推算，中国的外汇储备有可能在9月底或10月份超过1万亿美元。
中国的外汇储备，一向被视为经济失衡及过度依赖出口的重要标志，并被视为中国严格控制人民币汇率的不良后果。
温家宝和曾庆红都承认，货币当局在管理大量流入该国的资金方面存在压力。
尽管中国央行通过发行短期票据，吸收了大部分进入中国金融体系的资金，但外部资金如潮水般涌入，加大了中国政府控制货币供应的难度。
但温家宝及曾庆红均表示，外汇储备也有好处，例如可以为采购原材料以及购买先进技术提供资金。
温家宝周二在北京接受了外国多家媒体的联合采访。根据路透社(Reuters)周二晚些时候发布的报道，温家宝在接受采访时称，外汇储备的增长，增强了中国的综合国力，国际支付能力和抗风险能力。
温家宝表示，通过积极主动增加产品及先进技术进口，利用部分外汇储备支持金融改革和企业改革，扩展了外汇储备的用途。
例如，中国政府近年来动用了大约600亿美元的外汇储备，为重要国有银行调整资本结构提供资金。
曾庆红对一家地方报纸表示，可以用更高比例的外汇储备，“增加重要战略资源进口储备，加快重点国有企业的技术改造”。曾庆红是中国排名第五位的领导人。
这两位领导人的言论反映出，中国政府内部对于如何管理或使用外汇储备的争论日益激烈，以及对外汇储备使用的控制。
例如，一些官员力主动用外汇储备，为中国建立战略石油储备提供资金。在过去几年中，中国已经开始建设战略石油储备设施。
中国外汇储备的构成属国家机密，但外界相信，其中大约70%为美元，约20%为欧元，剩余部分是以日元为主的其它货币。
中国持有大量美国有价证券（主要是美国国债），这使中国外汇储备政策的任何变化都变得极为敏感。几位级别较低的官员曾经谈到，未来的外汇储备要实现多元化，减少美元比例。但很难评估这一比例是否有所变化。
