China Yuan Down Late; Adjusts After Key Level Broken Thu-2
-China's yuan was down against the U.S. dollar late Friday afternoon, readjusting after breaking through a key psychological resistance level Thursday. On the over-the-counter market the dollar was at CNY7.9078 around 0730 GMT, up from Thursday's close of CNY7.8965. It traded between CNY7.9048 and CNY7.9105. Dealers said the U.S. dollar closed at CNY7.9079 on the automatic price matching system, up from Thursday's close of CNY7.8962. It traded in a range of CNY7.9050 to CNY7.9090. 'After dropping below the CNY7.9000 level, the dollar has finally rebounded,' said a Shenzhen-based dealer with a local bank. 'The yuan can't just appreciate indefinately.' Dealers had expected the dollar to find support at CNY7.9000, but that level was easily broken for the first time Thursday after the dollar-yuan central parity rate was set at 7.8998. The yuan had been on a relatively strong rising trend since Sept. 18, the eve of U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's visit to China. From then until Thursday's close, the dollar had fallen more than CNY0.0500 on the OTC market. It had previously taken about two months for the dollar to fall by that magnitude. Dealers said the rise was particularly surprising as the central bank had been emphasizing the importance of two-way volatility in the market to encourage hedging, and to deter hot money from betting that the yuan would appreciate in a straight line. Meanwhile, dealers said the yuan's fall Friday had nothing to do with a decision by U.S. Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham to abandon efforts to pass legislation this year that would impose sanctions on China in retaliation for currency manipulation. The senators were originally considering having the Senate vote this week on a bill that would impose a 27.5% tariff on China-made goods if Beijing didn't allow the yuan to strengthen against the dollar. Although dealers said throughout the week the senators' deliberations played no role in pushing the yuan to new highs, Schumer said he felt the threat of the bill had an effect. 'We don't think that was coincidental,' he said Thursday. Offshore, one-year dollar-yuan nondeliverable forwards were at 7.6530/7.6570 late Friday, up from 7.6470/7.6520 late Thursday afternoon. A Hong Kong-based dealer said NDFs rose in line with the spot market
人民币尾盘走低，在周四突破关键心理位后出现调整 -2-
某当地银行驻深圳的一位交易商表示，在跌破人民币7.9000元以后，美元终于出现反弹，人民币不可能无限期地升值下去。 交易商此前曾预计，美元将在人民币7.9000元处获得支撑。但在美元兑人民币中间价被定在7.8998元之后，美元于周四轻易地首次跌破了7.9000元。 自9月18日美国财政部长鲍尔森(Henry Paulson)访华前夕以来，人民币一直保持着较为强劲的升势。自那天起，询价交易市场美元兑人民币汇率已下跌超过人民币0.05元。而此前，美元下跌同样的幅度约需要两个月的时间。 交易商表示，人民币连续走高尤其令人惊讶，因中国央行一直在强调人民币汇率双向波动对于鼓励套期保值交易以及防止热钱押注人民币连续升值的重要意义。 同时，交易商表示，本交易日人民币下跌与美国参议员查尔斯．舒默(Charles Schumer)和林塞．格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)决定不再推动国会在今年通过有关对中国进口商品徵收惩罚性关税的议案无关。 这两名参议员原本考虑本周将中国关税制裁议案提交参议院表决。该议案的内容是，如果中国不允许人民币兑美元汇率进一步走强，就将对中国出口至美国的商品加徵27.5%的惩罚性关税。 虽然交易商称上述两名参议员的举动对本周人民币连创新高并没有产生影响，但舒默表示，他感到这还是有效果的。 舒默周四称，他们认为这绝对不是巧合。 离岸市场，1年期美元/人民币不可交割远期合约周五尾盘报人民币7.6530/7.6570元，高于周四尾盘的人民币7.6470/7.6520。 一名驻香港的交易商表示，美元兑人民币不可交割远期走高与现货汇价表现一致。
