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泰国应保持既定经济政策

级别: 管理员
Thailand Stands by Markets Thaksin Is Gone, But Economic Policies
Remain After Coup

BANGKOK, Thailand -- The selection of Pridiyathorn Devakula, the governor of Thailand's central bank, as finance minister in the country's new military-installed interim government signals that Bangkok is likely to continue its free-market, growth-oriented economic policies.

Thailand's interim prime minister, retired Gen. Surayud Chulanont, rattled some investors and businesspeople on Oct. 1 by saying his government would follow influential King Bhumibol Adulyadej's longstanding preference to decrease Thailand's reliance on foreign trade and make the country's economy more "self-sufficient."


To some analysts, Gen. Surayud's comment seemed out of step with the economic realities of Thailand, a country of 65 million people that is an important supplier of rice, shrimp and automobiles to the global market. It also prompted concerns that Thailand's new government might move away from the pro-business policies that attracted about $6.8 billion in net foreign investment from 2002 to 2005 under ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Mr. Pridiyathorn spent much of last week trying to reassure the markets that what Gen. Surayud meant was that Thailand wouldn't take on unnecessary debt and would seek to grow at a more sustainable pace.

On Saturday, Mr. Pridiyathorn confirmed he had accepted Gen. Surayud's offer to become finance minister and a deputy prime minister in the new administration and offered further reassurance by saying the government will immediately implement two or three large mass-transit projects, following a course set by Mr. Thaksin, who was overthrown in a military coup on Sept. 19.

In a speech at the Stock Exchange of Thailand, Mr. Pridiyathorn also said the government would focus on implementing infrastructure projects to make Thailand more competitive with its Asian neighbors -- a hallmark of Mr. Thaksin's policies. The projects include building new railway lines around Bangkok and introducing water-management systems to encourage economic growth.

"We will only do what we think we have the ability to do" in the limited time available to the interim government, the governor said. The military has pledged to enact a new constitution and to restore permanent civilian rule through democratic elections by next October.

That time limit effectively also rules out any significant new privatizations of state companies or agencies in the next 12 months, freezing a policy priority of Mr. Thaksin's government.

Mr. Pridiyathorn said privatizations are better handled by a democratically elected government because new, more effective regulatory agencies to oversee the process need to be established. "Privatization should be handled by the next government, which will come from the election. We don't think we can do it in one year," he said.

The 59-year-old career banker has headed Thailand's central bank since 2001. He is to be sworn in this week. King Bhumibol has endorsed the list of cabinet ministers presented by Gen. Surayud. Mr. Pridiyathorn, who is related to Thailand's royal family, made a name for himself in 2004 by clamping down on runaway lending at Krung Thai Bank PCL when its nonperforming loans surged by $1.1 billion in that year alone. That move brought him into direct conflict with Mr. Thaksin and his economic managers, who had promoted politically popular easy-credit policies despite criticism from Thailand's traditional ruling technocrats and the country's powerful monarchy. Mr. Thaksin eventually agreed to Mr. Pridiyathorn's insistence on a new management team at Krung Thai Bank.

Among the other main economic cabinet posts in Gen. Surayud's interim government, Kosit Panpiemras, executive chairman of Bangkok Bank PCL, will take the Ministry of Industry portfolio because of his experience as head of Thailand's national economic-planning agency. Mr. Kosit will also be a deputy prime minister.

Some economists have welcomed the apparent change in focus of the new government, which aims to move away from some of Mr. Thaksin's easy-credit programs.

Usara Wilapich, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank, says the new government's remarks about self-sufficiency are more about promoting the quality of economic growth than its pace, and this could be a positive development. She is retaining her growth forecast for 2007 gross domestic product at a relatively bullish 5.2%, compared with her 2006 forecast of 4.1%. Last year, Thailand's GDP grew 4.5%; prior to last month's coup, the central bank forecast that it would expand 4% to 5.3% this year.

Other economists said Thailand's current political uncertainty may hamper its efforts to attract foreign investment, limiting growth prospects.

Political analysts say Thailand's new government can't afford to risk much slower growth. During his five years in power, Mr. Thaksin ignited the aspirations of Thailand's rural poor -- and they could be among those worst hit if, in December, the U.S. Congress proceeds with plans to overhaul or end its generalized system of trade preferences, known as GSP, under which Thailand enjoys significant benefits.

Under the GSP program, Thailand last year exported $3.57 billion of products to the U.S., some of which entered tariff-free and some with reduced tariffs. About 18% of Thailand's exports to the U.S., by value, could be affected by changes to GSP. And there is little prospect that a stalled free-trade agreement that Bangkok and Washington began to negotiate can be completed in time to replace Thailand's existing trade benefits: The U.S. can negotiate trade deals only with elected governments, and Thailand won't have one before the termination in July 2007 of American trade officials' right to negotiate such pacts without congressional intervention.
泰国应保持既定经济政策

泰国临时政府挑选央行行长蒂耶通(Pridiyathorn Devakula)担任财政部长,这表明泰国可能将继续实行其现行的自由市场、以增长为导向的经济政策。

泰国临时政府总理苏拉育(Surayud Chulanont)在10月1日表示,他的政府将遵从国王普密蓬?阿杜德(Bhumibol Adulyadej)长期以来倡导的经济发展方针:降低对对外贸易的依赖,并使泰国经济向更加自给自足的方向发展。此番讲话让一些投资者以及商业人士感到不安。

泰国相关报导

? 苏拉育料将出任泰国过渡政府总理
? 泰国政变有望提振股市
? 泰国军方提名央行行长组建经济顾问团
? 泰国军政府考虑冻结他信资产
? 泰国临时军政府开始调查他信
? 政变或许对泰国经济有利无害
? 泰国发生政变 他信任期或将终结
对于某些分析人士来说,苏拉育的言论似乎与泰国的现实状况不符,这个拥有6,500万人口的国家是全球市场大米、虾类及汽车的重要供应国。他的言论还引发了外界对泰国新政府可能放弃他信(Thaksin Shinawatra)政府时期所奉行的经济政策的担忧。在2002年至2005年间,他信的经济政策吸引的外商投资净额高达68亿美元。

蒂耶通在上周花费大量时间打消市场的疑虑:苏拉育总理讲话的意思是泰国将不会增加任何不必要的债务,并将以更加可持续发展的步伐前进。

蒂耶通上周六证实他已经接受苏拉育的邀请,将在新政府中担任泰国财政部长兼副总理。另外,为了进一步打消人们的顾虑,他还表示政府将立即实施两个或三个公共交通项目。

蒂耶通在泰国证券交易所(Stock Exchange of Thailand)发表演讲称,政府将重点实施多个基础设施项目,以增强泰国对邻国的竞争力,这也正是他信政策的特点。这些项目包括在曼谷周边修建新铁路线、以及引进水源管理系统以促进经济增长。

蒂耶通说,我们将在临时政府有限的时间内做一些力所能及的事情。泰国军方承诺制定新的宪法,并在明年10月前通过民主选举来还政于民。

这个时间限制同样也排除了任何国有公司或机构在未来12月中进行私有化改革的可能性。

蒂耶通表示,私有化改革最好由选举产生的新政府来进行,因为泰国需要建立一个能够监督这一过程、且更有效的监管机构。他说:“私有化应该由选举产生的新政府来进行。我们认为在一年之内我们无法进行私有化改革。”

渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)的经济学家乌萨拉?维拉皮克(Usara Wilapich)说,泰国新政府关于自给自足的说法更多的是为了促进经济发展的质量而不是速度,这会是一个积极的发展。她仍维持对泰国2007年经济增长5.2%这一相对乐观的预测,她对2006年的预测是4.1%。去年泰国经济增长了4.5%;在上个月军事政变之前,央行预计今年经济将增加4%-5.3%。

其他经济学家认为,泰国目前政治局势的不确定性将对其吸引外商投资的努力带来负面影响,进而使经济发展前景受到限制。

政治分析人士说,泰国新政府无法承担经济增速放慢所带来的影响。在他信执政的五年中,他点燃了农村贫困人口发展的希望--但是如果美国国会今年12月继续实施全面改革或终止贸易普惠制(GSP)的计划,泰国农民将是受冲击最大的人群之一。

James Hookway
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