Promoting the next great globalisation
While much of the talk about globalisation is of either the "for" or "against" variety, this is a false choice. The real question is whether political and business leaders will take the world in the prosperous direction of the next great globalisation, that of the financial systems of emerging market countries, or the perilous path of the next great reversal, a retreat from free flows of goods, services and capital across borders.
The globalisation of trade and information in the past half century has lifted vast numbers of people out of extreme poverty. World economic growth since 1960 has been the highest ever. There has been a convergence of income per capita and a reduction of poverty in countries that have taken advantage of globalisation by becoming export-oriented. In India and China, globalisation has led more than 1bn people out of extreme poverty.
ADVERTISEMENT
Countries that have not been able to take advantage of globalisation, such as most of sub-Saharan Africa, have not only seen their position relative to globalisers fall, but have experienced absolute drops in per capita income. In 1960, average personal income in Somalia was 10 per cent higher than in South Korea. Over the next 45 years Somalis experienced a drop in their income, while South Koreans benefited from rapid economic growth, so that now Somalia's per capita income is less than one-tenth that of South Korea's.
Globalisation is not inevitable, nor does it march immutably forward. What we are experiencing is actually the second great globalisation of trade and capital flows in modern times. The first began in 1870 and ended with the start of the first world war in 1914. The war disrupted capital flows and international trade between nations. The world economy never fully recovered from this Great Reversal and the 1930s saw a global depression, the rise of fascism and the start of the second world war.
Could there be another Great Reversal in which globalisation retreats and the world suffers political, social and economic upheaval and destruction? The answer is yes. In recent years there have been notable electoral successes of anti-globalist politicians in developing countries.
What can be done to help poorer countries reach the next stage of economic development so they can eventually get rich? The development of an efficient financial system will enable emerging market economies to allocate capital to its most productive uses. Institutions need to be created that promote strong property rights and a well-functioning legal system.
Institutional reform must be put at the top of the agenda in developing countries. This can be difficult because of the political environment in those countries: rich elites and special interests have much to lose from anything that encourages an efficient financial system and promotes competition.
The solution is to increase demand within developing countries for more robust financial activity. Financial globalisation helps create these incentives because when domestic companies in developing countries can borrow from abroad or from foreign financial interests, domestic financial firms start to lose business. They will need to find new customers to whom they can profitably lend. Without good information to screen out good from bad credit risks and the ability to enforce contracts to ensure that borrowers do not take on excessive risk, domestic financial institutions will not be able to make money. These firms will need to push for institutional reforms to improve accounting standards and financial disclosure. They will be more likely to encourage legal reforms to protect property rights.
Rich countries can help encourage this institutional development by providing the right incentives. As William Easterly has pointed out in his book, The Elusive Quest for Growth, aid has generally not worked well in promoting development because it has not provided the right incentives for governments to act in their citizens' interest.
What promotes development is encouraging poorer countries to pursue an external orientation and develop a successful export sector. This not only forces the economy to become more efficient, but creates a demand to improve institutions. In addition to offering technical assistance and greater incentives for institutional development, advanced countries can also help to alleviate poverty by opening up their markets to exports from poorer countries. Those who lose their jobs in advanced countries from this opening of markets deserve our sympathy and our support to find new jobs, but displaced workers can be assisted in other ways than trade restrictions.
Free trade, fuelled by effective financial support, raises productivity in developing and advanced countries alike. "Trade not aid" will help make globalisation work to the benefit of poorer countries. Financial reform in developing nations is the first step in promoting this happier state of affairs.
The writer is a professor at Columbia Business School. After writing this article, he became a governor of the Federal Reserve System. His book The Next Great Globalization: How Disadvantaged Nations Can Harness Their Financial Systems to Get Rich was recently published by Princeton University Press
全球化下一步往哪走
尽
管关于全球化的谈论大多可以归为“赞成”或是“反对”，这其实是一个错误的选择。真正的问题在于，政治和商业领袖是会引领世界奔向繁荣，实现下一轮大规模的全球化(即新兴市场国家金融系统的全球化)，还是会把世界带上下一轮大倒退(商品、服务和资本跨境自由流动出现倒退)的危险道路。
过去半个世纪，贸易和信息的全球化使无数人摆脱了极度贫困。1960年以来的全球经济增长率是有史以来最高的。一些国家采取了出口导向型策略，利用全球化契机，实现了人均收入趋于平均，贫困不断减少。在印度和中国，全球化已使逾10亿人口摆脱了极度贫困。
那些未能利用全球化契机的国家(例如多数撒哈拉以南的非洲国家)，不仅目睹了自身与全球化国家相对地位的不断下降，还遭遇了人均收入绝对水平的下滑。1960年，索马里的平均个人收入比韩国高10%。在其后的45年，索马里人的收入下降，而韩国人获益于快速的经济增长，以致现在索马里的人均收入还不到韩国的十分之一。
全球化并非必然，其进程也未必连续不断。我们现在所经历的，其实是现代史上第二轮贸易和资本流动的大规模全球化。第一轮始于1870年，结束于第一次世界大战爆发的1914年。一战中断了国与国之间的资本流动和国际贸易。世界经济未能完全从这次大倒退中恢复过来，20世纪30年代又发生了全球大萧条、法西斯主义的兴起和第二次世界大战。
是否有可能再次出现大倒退，导致全球化进程逆转，世界遭受政治、社会和经济的剧变和打击？答案是肯定的。近年来，一些发展中国家反全球化政客赢得大选的现象引人注目。
要采取何种措施才能帮助较贫困国家达到下一个经济发展阶段，从而最终变得富有呢？发展有效率的金融系统将使新兴市场经济体能够将资本配置给最具成效的用途，还有必要创建一些制度，促进强有力的产权和运行良好的法律系统。
制度改革必须置于发展中国家议程的首位。鉴于这些国家的政治环境，要做到这一点可能颇有难度：鼓励形成高效率的金融体系，促进竞争，就会造成富裕精英阶层和特殊利益集团的巨大损失。
解决之道是增加发展中国家内部对更强健的金融活动的需求。金融全球化有助于形成这类激励机制，因为当发展中国家的本土公司能够从国外或从外资金融集团借到资金时，本土金融企业就会开始失去业务。它们需要找到新客户，通过向新客户发放贷款而获利。若没有完备的信息来区分信贷风险的优劣，也没有合约执行能力来确保借款者不承担过高的风险，那么发展中国家的金融机构就没有能力获利。这些机构必须积极推动制度改革，以完善会计准则和财务披露制度。他们将更有可能鼓励法制改革，以保护产权。
富裕国家可以提供适当的激励措施，鼓励这一制度变革。正如威廉?伊斯特利(William Easterly)在其著作――《在增长的迷雾中求索》(The Elusive Quest for Growth)中指出的那样，援助一般来讲不能很好地促进发展，因为它没有为政府提供适当的激励，促使它们为自己的公民造福。能够促进发展的做法，是鼓励较贫困国家发展外向型经济，打造成功的出口行业。这不仅会迫使经济体提高效率，还会创造出改良制度的需求。除了提供技术援助以及为发展制度给予更多激励外，发达国家还可以向较贫困国家的出口商品开放本国市场，以此帮助减轻贫困。那些在市场开放过程中丢掉工作的发达国家人士，理应得到我们的同情，我们也应当帮助他们找到新工作，但帮助失业工人可以采用其它方式，不一定非要通过贸易限制。
在有效金融支持推动下的自由贸易，会同时提高发展中国家和发达国家的生产率。“要贸易不要援助”将有助于全球化为较贫困国家谋福利。发展中国家的金融改革是迈向这一更美好局面的第一步。
本文作者为哥伦比亚大学商学院(Columbia Business School)教授。在撰写本文后，他成为美联储理事。普林斯顿大学出版社(Princeton University Press)最近出版了他的著作《下一次伟大的全球化：贫困国家如何依靠金融系统致富》(The Next Great Globalization: How Disadvantaged Nations Can Harness Their Financial Systems to Get Rich)
