Singapore Steams Ahead
GDP Growth Allows
Monetary Authority
To Hold Policy Steady
SINGAPORE -- Singapore's economy expanded faster than expected in the third quarter, giving authorities more leeway to maintain a slightly restrictive monetary policy through 2007, analysts said.
The city-state's annualized and seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose 6% from the second quarter, after 3.4% growth in the second quarter from the first. Compared with a year earlier, the economy expanded 7.1% in the third quarter.
Meanwhile, the Monetary Authority of Singapore stood by its preference for a stronger local currency. At its second and last policy review this year, the central bank maintained its policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar -- a stance that has been in place since April 2004.
Singapore conducts monetary policy through exchange-rate targeting because import costs are an important driver of overall price levels in the city-state.
Many analysts had argued the MAS could respond to slower global demand by loosening monetary policy at its next meeting in April 2007, but the third quarter's stronger-than-expected growth has changed some minds.
"It's a flip. A shift to neutral is a very unlikely scenario for the April meeting," said Citigroup economist Sim Moh Siong. Mr. Sim said Singapore's export-dependent manufacturing sector contributed to the strong third-quarter growth levels. Services were also strong, while construction expanded after an extended period of weakness.
Not all economists believe Singapore's economy is set to accelerate or even maintain its current pace, and market watchers will follow the performance of the manufacturing sector closely ahead of the next policy review.
"If we see weaker sales of consumer electronics, we are likely to see a slowdown in semiconductors," said United Overseas Bank economist Alvin Liew.
The MAS expects strong growth in 2007, but not necessarily an improvement over recent trends. "Growth is expected to be sustained in 2007, although at a slower rate compared to 2006," the MAS said in its monetary-policy statement.
The MAS made a modest upgrade to its 2006 outlook, saying full-year growth would be in the upper half of the official target range of 6.5% to 7.5%.
UBS currency strategist Nizam Idris said he expects Singapore's growth to slow to trend level, which is about 5% by some estimates. "Trend growth and modest inflation levels suggest the MAS will maintain its slightly tight monetary policy through next year," Mr. Idris said.
Standard Chartered's Joseph Tan predicted 5.5% growth for the economy next year, but he is on the other side of the fence when it comes to predicting monetary policy. Lower import prices may prompt the central bank to loosen the monetary environment, he said. "Oil is the only wild card," Mr. Tan said. "If oil prices fall, it is almost certain that the MAS will shift" to neutral monetary policy.
新加坡经济增势强劲
新加坡第三季度的经济增长速度高于预期，分析人士说，这使得该国政府在2007年年底之前维持略微偏紧的货币政策有了更大余地。
在经季节性因素调整并折合成年率后，新加坡第三季度的国内生产总值(GDP)较第二季度增长了6%，而第二季度的GDP则较第一季度增长了3.4%。第三季度的GDP较上年同期增长了7.1%。
新加坡金融管理局(Monetary Authority)仍然维持其支持新加坡元走强的立场。该机构在其最新发表的政策评估报告中表示，将继续其支持新加坡元温和、渐进升值的政策，自2004年4月以来新加坡金管局一直坚持这一政策。
新加坡通过设置汇率目标的方式来实施其货币政策，因为进口成本对新加坡的总体物价起着重要的驱动作用。
许多分析师曾认为，新加坡金管局在其明年4月举行的下一次会议上将作出放松货币政策的决定，以应对全球需求增长放缓的局面，但高于预期的第三季度经济增长率已经使他们中的一些人改变了想法。
花旗集团的经济学家Sim Moh Siong说：“这有点出人意料。在明年4月的会议上转而采取中性货币政策看来是非常不可能了。”他说，新加坡出口依赖型的制造业为第三季度强劲的经济增长作出了贡献。服务业的表现也很强劲，而建筑业在经历了长时间的疲弱后又开始增长。
并非所有的经济学家都认为新加坡经济将保持现有的增长速度、甚至加速增长，在新加坡金管局下一次政策会议前市场观察人士也将密切关注新加坡制造业的表现。
大华银行(United Overseas Bank)的经济学家Alvin Liew说：“如果消费类电子产品的销售势头减弱，那么半导体产品的市场需求增速就有可能放慢下来。”
新加坡金管局预计，该国经济2007年仍将强劲增长，但未必能保持目前的这种增长势头。金管局在其货币政策声明中称：“经济增长预计在2007年仍将持续下去，不过增长速度会低于2006年。”
金管局将新加坡2006年的预期经济增长率作了温和上调，称全年经济增长率将在6.5%至7.5%这一官方目标增长率区间的上端。
瑞银(UBS)的货币策略师尼扎姆?伊德利斯(Nizam Idris) 说，他预计新加坡的经济增长速度将放缓至趋势水平，一些人估计这一水平对应的经济增长率是5%左右。他说：“趋势增长率和温和的通货膨胀水平意味着，明年一年金管局都将维持其略微偏紧的货币政策。”
渣打银行(Standard Chartered)的Joseph Tan预计，新加坡明年的经济增长率为5.5%，但他在预测新加坡的货币政策时却持与伊德利斯不同的看法。他认为，进口物价降低可能会促使政府放松货币政策。他说，油价是唯一的不确定因素，如果油价下跌，几乎可以肯定新加坡金管局将转而实施中性的货币政策。
John Jannarone
