Interview: Mexican Ambassador to the United States
>> a different view on the immigration debate in washington. many of the estimated 11 million undocumented workers in the u.s. today are from mexico. some in congress say our neighbor to the south is not doing enough to stop illegal immigration. what is mexico’s spent and how would a guest worker program affect that country’s economy? carlos de icaza is the mexican ambassador to the united states. he joins us in the studio. welcome.
>> thank you for inviting me.
>> from mexico’s perspective, what is your country’s responsibility as it pertains to illegal immigration in the united states?
>> we believe it’s a shareholder responsibility between the u.s. and mexico. my country is a country of origin, destiny and transitive migration. our big message here is that migration, yes, it’s part of your domestic policy agenda but it’s also part of an international and regional cooperation issue. we have here, i believe, a big opportunity of working together and having a legal, humane, dignified migration flow between our countries.
>> let me ask you about the debate as it’s shaping up here in the united states, the discussion of the guest worker program as president bush has called for. do you believe that a guest worker program, at least the one currently envisioned in congress, would work?
>> i think it’s essential to have a guest worker program. if we do not have a guest worker program, we do not have a legal avenue for the migration flow between our countries. last year, your economy hired 500,000 foreign low-skilled workers and there were only 5,000 visas given for that capacity. a guest worker program would help create not only a legal avenue but it would take a lot of pressure from the border and we can concentrate on both sides of the border in fighting against traffickers, smugglers, people that are taking advantage of migrants migrants, crossing attracted by your economy.
>> talk to me about the importance of those immigrants moving from mexico to the united states. how important are they to the mexican economy, the remittances moving from the united states back to mexico?
>> they are important for the mexican economy. they are also important for the american economy. having remittances through the financing system, it helps both economy. yes, they’re important, about $20 billion last year of remittances were sent to mexico. and there is a study of the inter-american development bank that says about 10% of the average monthly salary of a migrant is being invested in remittances and while 90% of that quantity of money stays here. so it’s important for both economies.
>> what do you think are realistic possibilities that some in congress say that even if they support the idea of a guest worker program that everyone here illegally here right now needs to return to their country first. is that reasonable to assume that mexicans here illegally would be willing to go home first?
>> there has to be a solution to a very difficult issue. migalation is a global issue and we respect the opportunity before the american congress and we have perceived the fact that it needs a lot of courage to see what is working and what is not working and doing something good for your country and also for the migrants involved. our thinking that there has to be a solution, a way in which you can regularize the state of millions of people here working because they are needed in the economy but they are totally unprotected, they leave live in a state of fear, they are hard-working people with no rights. so constructing a legal avenue, a path to regularize the situation, that’s common sense. and on our end of the line, what we are―our message to the american people is we’re your partners, we’re your friends, we fight against terrorism, against international criminal organizations. why cannot we be partners in dealing with the migration challenge between our countries.
>> has you watch the debate unfold, here, the protests that took place here in washington and around the country, are you more optimistic or less optimistic today that the united states is about to agree on changes that will be beneficial to your country, as well?
>> i have to be optimistic because the fact that you have the debate that is now one of the top priorities of the domestic agenda is a very good signal. and, yes, yesterday, we saw demonstrations. your country like my country are democratic societies. people demonstrated peacefully. they are expressing their concerns and there is a big challenge on the congress and on the american government, from our end of the line, if we work together as neighbors, we can do many things on the mexican side. we have had 30 years a guest worker program with canada and when two countries work together, you can do background checking, you can have certainty of the people collecting wages, doing things in a legal way, sharing insurance, health costs. so i think it’s a sensible idea to work together.
>> ambassador, we do appreciate your time today and insights on the issue.
>> thank you very much.
>> that was ambassador carlos de icaza from mexico. more, now, on the immigration debate. we continue our discussion, here. organizers say the size of the immigration protests across america the last few weeks show the growing political power of the latino community in the united states. what role will the country’s biggest minority group play in 2006 and 2008? for more on that, we are joined by professor larry sabato, director of the university of virginia center for politics, joining me from charlottesville. good to see you.
>> nice to see you.
>> how important is the hispanic vote right now in u.s. politics?
>> well, it’s a critical swing vote. it was probably the vote that swung the most between 2000 and 2004 in the last two presidential elections. in 2000, when president bush lost the popular vote, he received no more than 35% of the hispanic and latino votes. in 2004 when he won the popular vote by three million, he got over 40% of the hispanic and latino vote. notice, democrats still carried it by about 60%. but democrats need about 2/3 of the hispanic and latino vote to win. the good news for democrats is, things have changed since 2004 and i think these demonstrations are showing us just how much change is really afoot in that community.
>> the progress that republicans have made recently, you hear some talk on capitol hill, depending on which member of congress you talk to, as to what’s at risk with the approach being taken by republicans, the divisions within the republican party over this issue. are republicans risking the progress they’ve made with the way this debate is going up on capitol hill?
>> absolutely. if the republican congress goes in the direction of the pretty harsh house of representatives republican bill, then i can tell you pretty certainly that republicans aren’t going to be getting 40% of the hispanic and latino vote. if, however, the republicans choose to go more in the direction of the compromise that nearly emerged in the senate, with a lot of republican leaders compromising with some of the democratic leaders of the senate, if that compromise eventually emerges, then i think republicans will continue to do relatively well. this is not a vote that’s set in stone. it’s not like, for example, african-americans who are almost always 90% democratic in good times and bad. this vote is movable for the republicans. but it’s movable in both directions. they had been doing better but they can do worse with it if they’re not careful, if they take that harsh view demonstrated by some of the members of the house republican caucus. >> just a short amount of time, here, unfortunately. professor, is this something that translates into the midterm elections or something we need to see in 2008?
>> i think it will show up more in 2008. there aren’t that many competitive races in 2006 where the latino vote can really be a swing vote. but in the next presidential election, you better believe, it’s going to matter. it could be the difference between victory or defeat for the two major parties.
>> professor larry sabato, director of the university of virginia center for politics, we appreciate your time and look forward to having you back here on margaret politics.” big news out of tehran today on iran’s nuclear program. is the bush administration contemplating war? that’s ahead on “money & politics.”
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Listen Interview: Deputy director to the Washington Institute
>> is iran the next nuclear program? iranian president mahmoud ahmadinejad said his country completed enrichment of uranium strong enough to produce nuclear fuel, openly defying the pronouncement by the u.n. security council. while iran maintains the plans are peaceful, white house press secretary scott mcclellan says the program is moving in the wrong direction. the announcement coming on the heels of reports that the bush administration is actively considering attacks on iranian nuclear installations. president bush yesterday calling those reports wild speculation. here to discuss this issue is patrick crawssen, deputy director of the washington institute for near east policy. their fur your time. what do you make of the announcement frlt iranians today.
>> it would be bragging. but if they’ve done what they claim they’ve done, which is to put together 164 of these centrifuges into one great big chain, that’s quite an accomplishment and puts them a lot closer to making the fuel that could be used for a nuclear weapon or a power plant.
>> give me the thinking back here in the united states at the u.n. security council. how do you expect the united states and the u.n. to respond to the announcement today?
>> to say to the iranians you really ought to open up to full u.n. inspections, iran’s only doing a minimal amount -- allowing the minimal amount of inspections at the moment and if iran is making all this progress in its nuclear program, then it’s important that the world community has better information about exactly what are the iranians up to.
>> what do they stand to benefit by trumpeting this now? if they are making this progress and feel strongly about having their own nuclear program, doesn’t this invite more attention and pressure from the outside?
>> true, but the director of the international atomic energy agency, mohamad elbaradei, is arriving in tehran tomorrow and they want to be able to show them that, hey, our program is so advanced, don’t even think about stopping it. that’s their aim is to say we can’t roll this one back.
>> what about other countries and the role they can play moving forward, russia in particular?
>> the russians have said that with proper diplomatic negotiations and inducements, iran can be led to once again freeze its nuclear program. now it’s going to be up to moscow to prove it can deliver on this before the g-8 summit of the big countries that meets in st. petersburg in july.
>> president bush justice talking about the reports in “the new yorker” and elsewhere that the u.s. is can’t contemplating military action against iran, called it wild speculation. does the president have to rephrase things a little bit, given the news we heard today from iran?
>> i wouldn’t think so. we still have time to deal with this diplomatically but, in fact, it’s troubling that iran seems to be moving faster than u.s. intelligence agency thought was likely to be their path.
>> the president of iran, what do you think? some people still don’t fully understand exactly what he’s up to. he hasn’t been in the position very long. give us your assessment of iran’s president right now.
>> thank god he’s not the real decision maker. it’s the supreme court leader calling the shots the president is something of a hick and furthermore, he’s a guy that wouldn’t mind a confrontation with the west. he thinks it would be a good way to rekindle the revolutionary spirit of the early days of the islamic republic.
>> what’s the worst-case scenario playing out from here?
>> that the iranians make a mad dash towards having one bomb, which they could do quickly,. a few years and furthermore that iran’s president has wild talk about wiping israel off the face of the map and meanwhile our diplomacy doesn’t get very far. then we’d be in a difficult situation a couple of years down the road.
>> how does this news today affect the separate talks discussed over the last few weeks, the u.s. and iran talking and discussing the iraq of -- the future of iraq. that seems to be on hold. does this announcement assure that?
>> probably not. we have been insisting those talks ought to be about iraq, not the nuclear program because the nuclear issue is a matter between iran and the world community and belongs in front of the security council with the europeans and russians playing an active role, in fact, the lead role in deciding what to do about these matters. we don’t want the nuclear issue to be a u.s.-iranian face-to-face confrontation.
>> what about oil as a bargaining chip in all of this? oil markets have been affected by the news of the tention -- tensions between the u.s. and iran. do you have a sense that iran is prepared to use oil as a bargaining chip going forward?
>> indeed, this last week we saw a lot of naval exercises by the iranians about how they could close down the strait moves in order to block not just their oil but the oil of all the countries in the persian gulf, which would be a really big problem for the world oil industry so the iranians know that’s their pressure point to use against us.
>> so not necessarily a shutdown of their own production, reduction of iranian supplies?
>> they keep saying if their production is threatened in any way, no one will get oil oft of the persian gulf and that would be a big problem for the world energy scene and why it’s so important that we do exercises and put in place the naval assets to make sure the strait stays open.
>> how does this get defused?
>> with a little bit of luck the europeans and russians push ahead with diplomac and the iranians seeing the world powers aligned shoulder to shoulder, back off.
>> are you optimistic such a scenario can play out?
>> 50-50.
>> thanks so much for your time today.
