China Makes Another Move to Rein in Economy
SHANGHAI -- China again tapped its economic brakes, with a tightening of monetary policy and a warning that the country's burgeoning trade surplus carries "very serious" risks for its economy.
The People's Bank of China said it would again reduce the amount of money banks can lend out by increasing for the third time this year the share of total deposits that lenders must keep with the central bank. The 0.5-percentage-point increase in the reserve-requirement ratio, which lifts it to 9%, is to take effect Nov. 15.
Chinese policy makers are struggling to control an economy that is surging in part because of soaring export earnings, which have propelled the country's foreign-currency reserves to nearly $1 trillion. The concern is that an excess of money in the economy could lead to ill-advised investments that later turn sour, damaging the financial system and the broader economy.
The central bank's statement announcing the reserve-ratio increase acknowledged that risk, saying that surging exports are "still very serious and new excessive liquidity is being produced by the banking system."
China's $110 billion trade surplus in the first nine months of the year already exceeded the $102 billion surplus for all of 2005. Friday's move underscores how concerns about the ballooning trade surplus -- already a source of criticism in the U.S. and from other trading partners -- have moved to the forefront of the central bank's policy making. Still, the People's Bank of China stopped short of any sign that it would take the step many economists say would best address the problem: allowing the yuan to become more valuable.
Instead, the central bank said its aim is to "further strengthen the achievements over liquidity control," which can be achieved through measures like the reserve-requirement increase. The central bank also said it plans to keep monetary policy "stable."
Critics say that the yuan is currently cheaper than it should be, making China's exports artificially inexpensive. The yuan's value has hit new highs since Beijing pledged to allow more market-based flexibility in the currency-exchange rate in July 2005, but the movement has been slow. The U.S. dollar has lost about 4.9% against yuan since last July.
The reserve-ratio increase came as a surprise to some economists, who said there are signs Beijing is managing to slow its economy through a series of tightening measures it has taken in recent months. Indeed, the central bank noted in Friday's statement that its monetary-policy tightening and other steps this year have had some success in slowing bank lending and cooling growth.
Gross domestic product in the first nine months grew 10.7% from the same period in 2005 -- a sizzling rate but slightly slower than the 10.9% in the first half. The reserve requirement has been raised five times since 2003 and is considered a blunt financial tool.
Some economists expressed doubt that the change will have a lasting impact on the economy or affect financial markets substantially. "The past three years' experiences in China have shown that [such increases'] effectiveness tends to be eroded very quickly," Goldman Sachs & Co. economist Hong Liang said in a research note Friday.
中国央行再度收紧政策
中国政府再次收紧货币政策，并警告称，迅猛增长的贸易顺差已给经济带来“非常严重的”风险。
相关报导
? 中国上调存款准备金率
? 中国上调基准存贷款利率
中国央行(People's Bank of China)决定在今年年内第三次上调银行存款准备金率。上调幅度为0.5%，达到9%，于11月15日起生效。
出口利润激增正在推动中国经济迅猛增长，出口收入已推动中国外汇储备达到接近1万亿美元的水平。在这种情况下，中国决策者正在想方设法控制经济增长。他们担心经济体系内资金过多可能会导致盲目投资，而一旦投资失败，则会殃及金融体系及整个国民经济。
中国央行在宣布上调存款准备金率的声明中承认了这种风险，并表示，当前国际收支顺差矛盾仍较突出，银行体系新的过剩流动性仍在产生。
中国今年前9个月贸易顺差达到1,100亿美元，已然超过去年全年的1,020亿美元。上周五的这一决定凸现出中国政府对贸易顺差激增的担忧以及这种担忧在央行货币政策上的体现──贸易顺差问题已成为美国以及其他贸易伙伴指责中国的重要理由。当然，尽管很多经济学家表示解决问题的最好办法是让人民币升值，中国央行并未表现出可能采取这一举措的任何迹象。
相反，央行表示再次提高存款准备金率旨在巩固流动性调控成效。央行还称，将继续执行稳健的货币政策，保持政策的连续性和稳定性。
批评人士指出，目前人民币被严重低估使得中国的出口价格被人为压低。虽然自2005年中国采取以市场为导向的更为灵活汇率体制以来人民币屡创新高，但总体升值步伐依旧缓慢。自去年7月以来美元兑人民币贬值4.9%。
上调存款准备金令某些经济学家大吃一惊，他们说，近几个月来北京通过一系列紧缩政策给经济降温，目前已初见成效。事实上，央行在上周五的声明中也表示，今年以来央行综合运用多种货币政策供给，大力回收银行体系流动性，流动性过剩状况有所缓解。
中国前9个月国内生产总值较上年同期增长10.7%──增速迅猛，但已低于上半年10.9%的增幅。自2003年以来中国已经五次上调存款准备金率，该政策一向被视为效果不是很明显的金融工具。
部分经济学家也并不认为上调存款准备金会对经济产生持久效力，并给金融市场带来重大影响。高盛经济学家梁红在上周五的报告中指出，过去3年的经验表明，上调存款准备金率的效力通常很快就会减退。
James T. Areddy
