人民币升值的“美国因素”(下)

新交易系统或为中美解决汇率争端开启大门
A Looser Yuan May Yet Evolve

New Trading System Opens
Even as U.S., Beijing Harden Words

HONG KONG

美国要求中国限期调整人民币汇率

US sets currency deadline for China

The US Treasury, in its twice-yearly report to Congress on exchange rates and trade, stopped short of accusing China of currency manipulation but put Beijing on notice that it expected a revaluation within six months.


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Its conclusions could provoke an angry reaction from the US Congress, which has lost patience with the Treasury's gentle diplomacy on China's exchange rate and favours stronger measures.

The report said: “The fixed exchange rate that China now maintains is a substantial distortion to world markets, blocking the price mechanism and impeding the adjustment of international imbalances.” The Treasury also sought to clarify that, while it has previously focused on the case for full currency flexibility in China, an immediate shift was now needed as an interim step towards a full float. Such action would be welcomed by legislators and manufacturers who have become increasingly concerned about the US trade deficit with China.

Administration officials have acknowledged alarm at a bill put forward by Charles Schumer, the Democrat senator, that would impose heavy sanctions if China does not revalue in the next six months. But many China experts have suggested that aggressive action by the US will only delay China's avowed intention of changing its currency regime.

The Treasury does not want to be seen to cave into protectionist pressures. Yesterday's report was couched in the language of global imbalances, rather than the bilateral US-China relationship, and the Group of Seven's call for international action to promote more balanced global growth. It stressed the benefits for China of allowing its currency to rise as well as arguing that other Asian government's should follow the same course. But the report made clear that China would meet the ill-defined technical requirements that would cause it to be named a currency manipulator if there is no substantial change in its currency regimes in the six month time-frame.

“Treasury will monitor progress on China's foreign exchange market developments very closely over the next six months in advance of preparation of the fall report,” it said. “China has clearly stated that it intends to move to a market-based flexible exchange rate. It is now widely accepted that China is now ready and should move without delay in a manner and magnitude that is sufficiently reflective of underlying market conditions.”

While the analysis presented yesterday focused on the second half of last year, China's current account surplus has continued to rise this year. Singling out China would require the administration enter into talks with China over its currency peg. The Treasury pointed out in the report that it has been involved in discussions with Beijing since 2003. The US has not accused a country of currency manipulation since China was last named in 1994.
美国要求中国限期调整人民币汇率

美国财政部在其一年两次提交给国会的汇率和贸易报告中没有指责中国操纵汇率，但它提请中国政府注意，它期望中国在6个月内将人民币升值。


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财政部的结论可能引发美国国会的愤怒反应，国会对财政部在中国人民币汇率问题上的温和外交手段已失去耐心，并赞成采取更强硬的措施。

报告说：“中国目前维持的固定汇率，严重扭曲了世界市场，阻塞了价格机制，妨碍了国际失衡的调整。”虽然美国财政部此前着重要求中国全面放开人民币汇率，但它试图澄清，目前需要中国立即改变政策，作为汇率完全浮动前的过渡措施。由于美国立法人士和制造商越来越担心美国的对华贸易逆差，这样的行动将会受到他们的欢迎。

美国政府官员已承认，他们对民主党参议员查尔斯?舒默(Charles Schumer)提出的一项议案表示吃惊。该议案称，如果中国不在6个月内将人民币升值，美国将进行强硬制裁。但许多中国问题专家表示，美国采取这种强硬行动，将只会使中国推迟实施它已经承诺的对汇率体系的调整。

财政部不希望被外界看到它屈服于贸易保护主义压力。昨天的报告在措辞上主要针对全球不平衡，而不是美中双边关系，并且引用了七国集团的呼吁，要求国际社会采取行动，以促进更为平衡的全球增长。报告强调了让人民币升值给中国带来的利益，并称亚洲其它政府也应走相同的道路。但该报告明确表示，如果中国的外汇体制在6个月的时间框架内没有重大改变，中国将符合那些定义不甚恰当的技术性规定，被冠以货币操纵国之名。

“在准备秋季报告之前，财政部将在未来6个月中十分密切地监视中国外汇市场动向的进展，”报告表示，“中国已清楚表明，打算向以市场为基础的灵活汇率过渡。目前外界广泛认为，中国已做好准备，应毫不拖延地采取行动，并在方式上和幅度上充分反映市场的基本状况。”

温家宝：向中国施压无助解决汇率问题

Pressure on renminbi peg ‘is not helping'

Wen Jiabao, China's prime minister, yesterday rebuffed foreign pressure for Beijing to reform its currency, telling a visiting US business delegation that any policy change was a “sovereign” issue for China to resolve on its own timetable.


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Mr Wen told the US business leaders that China was committed to introducing greater flexibility to its currency, the renminbi, now pegged to the dollar, but suggested that foreign and speculative pressure was making a change more difficult.

“The reform of the renminbi's exchange rate is a matter of China's own sovereignty,” Mr Wen said, according to a report onthe official Xinhua news agency.

“Any pressure or media hype, or politicising an economic matter, will not help solve this problem.”

Mr Wen's comments come at a time of rising tension between Beijing and its main trading partners, especially the US, over the exchange rate, which has become the symbolic battleground over attempts to reduce China's trade surplus.

On Friday the US reimposed import quotas on some clothing items in response to rising Chinese textile exports so far this year, and the EU is under pressure from local industry to take similar measures.

“At the moment there are some problems in Sino-US trade but these problems should not be politicised,” Mr Wen said, an apparent reference to the textiles dispute.

China has long said it intends to introduce greater flexibility for its currency but has not commented on the timetable for change.

Although a significant number of Chinese officials support a quick move to a more flexible currency, the top leaders have given no indication of the timing that they favour.

Mr Wen said China was a “responsible country” which would take into account the views of regional nations, but said the final decision would be made “in line with [our] own conditions”.

The government was also balancing other factors, such as the stability of its financial system and the ability of enterprises to manage currency risk, in weighing its decision, Mr Wen said.

Although China's leaders have always said the issue should not be “politicised”, the timing of any change is becoming one of pure political calculation for Beijing.

Hu Jintao, China's president, is to travel to Washington later this year, possibly in September, a trip which could influence the timing of any announcement.

But any change in the exchange rate when it does come is likely to be small, of only a few percentage points, a decision which may only result in even louder demands from the US Congress for a large revaluation.

Legislation to be considered in the Senate would give China six months to revalue its currency or face a 27 per cent tax on its exports to the US. President George W. Bush is unlikely to ratify such a bill, which would violate World Trade Organisation rules.
温家宝：向中国施压无助解决汇率问题

中国总理温家宝昨天回绝了外国对中国改革人民币汇率施加的压力。他对一个来访的美国商业代表团说，任何政策的变化都是中国的主权事务，中国将按照自己的时间表来解决。


温先生对美国商界领袖说，中国坚定不移地推进人民币汇率制度改革。但他表示，来自外国和投机的压力使改革变得更加困难。目前人民币汇率与美元挂钩。

官方新华社的一篇报道称：温先生表示，“人民币汇率改革是中国的主权。”

“任何压力和炒作，把经济问题政治化，都无助于问题的解决。”

温先生的这番表态，正值中国政府与主要贸易伙伴，尤其是美国，就汇率问题上的紧张加剧之际。在减少中国贸易顺差的问题上，人民币汇率已成为一个富有象征意义的战场。

今年以来，中国纺织品对美出口持续上升，美国周五做出回应，针对一些种类的服装重新实施进口配额。欧盟也面临当地服装业的压力，要求它采取类似措施。

“目前中美贸易存在一些问题，但不应将这些问题政治化，”温先生表示。他明显是指双方的纺织品争端。

很长一段时间以来，中国一直表示，打算为人民币引入更多灵活性，但并没有说明改革的时间表。

虽然很多中国官员支持加快措施，使人民币汇率更具灵活性，但高层领导人并未就他们满意的时机作出表示。

温先生说，中国是“负责任的国家”，将考虑地区内各国的观点，但他表示，中国最终将作出“符合(我们)实际情况”的决定。

温先生表示，政府在权衡决定时，也正同时考虑其它一些因素，如金融系统稳定和企业的货币风险管理能力。

虽然中国领导人总是说不应将这个问题“政治化”，但政治考量正成为中国政府汇率改革时机的一个纯粹因素。

中国国家主席胡锦涛将于今年稍晚时候访问华盛顿，可能是9月份。此次华盛顿之行可能影响宣布汇率改革的时机。

不过，（中国）汇率改革时，可能以小幅度进行，或许只几个百分点，这一决定也许只会导致美国国会更大的呼声，要求人民币大幅升值。

人民币应升值，但理由应正当

China's currency Beijing should revalue, but for the right reasons

Speculation about an imminent revaluation of China's renminbi against the US dollar has reached fever pitch. An erroneous report on Wednesday on the English-language website of the People's Daily, the Communist party newspaper, did nothing to soothe traders' nerves, briefly weakening the dollar and boosting tradeable Asian currencies. Genuine pressures for revaluation also persist. Above all, with Congress in a protectionist mood, the US administration insists that Beijing should move immediately to a more flexible currency regime.


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What should be done? The first priority is to eliminate the spurious arguments. US anguish over its bilateral trade deficit with China is not a good reason for a stronger renminbi. There is no reason for bilateral trade to balance. Equally, China's assertions that it cannot revalue under pressure, for fear of seeming weak in the face of foreign demands, do not justify maintaining the status quo if the economic arguments point to a currency shift.

The next priority is to assess the better arguments. Against revaluation, some argue that the current account surplus is still smaller as a share of gross domestic product than the US deficit. Furthermore, a revaluation would be pointless if it were, say, 5 per cent. This would have little impact on Chinese trade or the politically sensitive US deficit. It would also encourage speculators to bet on a second upward movement. But if the change was too big it might have a destabilising effect on China's trade and even push the country into deflation.

In favour of revaluation, however, China continues to accumulate huge quantities of foreign exchange. The country's current account, which was once barely in overall surplus in spite of the imbalance with the US, is now growing rapidly: the International Monetary Fund forecasts it at 4.2 per cent of gross domestic product this year. Moreover, China also receives massive inflows of foreign direct investment. The long-term basic balance (the sum of the current account and the FDI inflow) will be more than 7 per cent of GDP this year.

In addition, because it is pegged to the dollar, the renminbi has declined against other currencies such as the euro. At the very least, a move to a currency basket or some other more flexible system would limit the renminbi's future overall decline in the event of a further dollar decline.

On balance, the case for a sizeable revaluation is strong. But it must be delivered in the right domestic and international context. At home, China needs to find ways to promote domestic demand without another round of excessive investment and bad debt. Moreover, China must not move alone. Adjustments in exchange rates and in the balance between domestic spending and output must also occur in other surplus countries. Not least, the US must play its part by reducing the large fiscal deficits the Bush administration has so sedulously created.
人民币应升值，但理由应正当

人民币对美元是否马上升值，由此引发的揣测已经上升到狂热的地步。上周三中国共产党机关报《人民日报》英文网站上的一篇错误报道更无助于缓解交易员绷紧的神经，那篇报道一度削弱了美元，并使可交易的亚洲货币升值。与此同时，要求人民币升值的真正压力仍然存在，尤其是目前美国国会采取保护主义的态度，而美国行政当局又坚持认为中国政府应立即实行更为灵活的货币体制。


那么，究竟应该怎么办？首要的问题是，要消除某些似是而非的论调。美国对美中双边贸易逆差感到苦恼，但这不是人民币升值的好理由。要求双边贸易必须平衡的说法是没有道理的。另一方面中国坚持认为不能在压力下升值，因为担心这会给人以屈服于外国要求的软弱形象。但是同样地，如果经济论据说明汇率应该改变的话，上述担心也不能成为维持现状的理由。

其次是衡量更为可取的论点。反对人民币升值的人认为，若将中国的经常项目盈余额与美国的财政赤字比较，其在国内生产总值中所占的比例更小。而且，如果升值幅度仅为5%，那么这样的升值没有什么意义，因为这种小幅升值对中国贸易起不了多大作用，而对具有政治敏感性的美国财赤也没有多大影响。同时它还会鼓励投机者为下一轮的升值押下赌注。然而，假如升值变化幅度太大，则可能对中国贸易带来不稳定影响，甚至可能将中国推向通货紧缩。

至于赞成人民币升值的人则认为，中国正在继续积累巨额外汇。中国的经常项目额度目前正迅速增长，按照国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测：今年它将占国内生产总值的4.2%；而在过去，尽管中美之间存在不平衡，但中国的经常项目曾一度只勉强达到总体盈余。此外，中国还有大量的外国直接投资源源流入。今年的长线基本平衡（即经常项目额与外国直接投资流入量之和）将占国内生产总值的7%以上。

而且，由于和美元挂钩，人民币对欧元等其它币种的汇率也已经下降。至少，如果人民币采取一揽子货币汇率或某种更灵活的货币体系，那么即使出现美元币值进一步下降，人民币在未来的全面下滑也将是有限的。

总体而言，有充分理由说明人民币应进行相当规模的币值重估。但是这必须在适当的国内和国际大环境中进行。在国内，中国需要找到促进内需的方法，同时又不至于陷进另一轮投资过剩和坏帐中。而且，中国绝不能单独行动。对汇率的调整，以及对国内消费和生产之间的平衡做出调整也必须在其它贸易顺差的国家中同时进行。而这当中更少不了美国所发挥的作用――降低布什政府不断造成的巨额财政赤字。