且慢为瑞士信贷集团的重组欢呼
Investors Cheer Credit Suisse Overhaul, but Should They?
Investors are betting that the latest Credit Suisse Group shake-up will be a winner. But the hand the new management team has to play may not be the strongest.
Shares of the Swiss banking titan have been on a tear over the past two months as investors anticipated details of the firm's overhaul, announced earlier this week. The stock is up 26% since Oct. 1 and about 4% since details of the moves were disclosed. By comparison, rival UBS AG is up just 14% since October and down almost 1% this week.
Behind some of the gains: enthusiasm for the company's Credit Suisse First Boston unit's plan to focus on its most-profitable businesses. But as part of the overhaul, the new management of the investment bank is actually spinning off some promising ventures and bidding a painful goodbye to some valuable revenue generators. Those executives leaving with the ventures form the backbone of CSFB's leading leveraged-finance franchise, which underwrites high-yield bonds, advises leveraged-buyout firms on deals and manages private-equity investment funds.
The loss of top talent, as well as layoffs in other areas of the firm that began in the past two days, could make it harder to compete for new talent, some analysts and rival bankers say. Furthermore, a renewed emphasis on trading for the firm's own account brings with it a heavy dose of risk.
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In an interview yesterday, CSFB Chief Executive Brady Dougan acknowledged the difficulty of replacing top talent lost in the shuffle but said the firm believes others within the leveraged-finance franchise will step up to fill the gap. "The hope is, and assumption is, that the business is going to continue without hopefully missing that much....Our hope is we don't miss a beat on it."
The biggest loss to CSFB: the departure of top leveraged-finance guru Bennett Goodman. He left briefly at the end of 2003, but was lured back this past spring by then-Chief Executive John Mack to run a new Alternative Capital Division, overseeing private-equity investments and a number of alternative-investment vehicles for clients. After Mr. Mack's ouster this summer, Mr. Goodman became frustrated by the turmoil and recently told the top brass that he would leave, too.
Mr. Goodman's division was on course to produce a few hundred million dollars in annual profit. In addition, his long tenure and deep relationships among leveraged-buyout firms accounted for at least tens of millions of dollars more in investment-banking business on leveraged loans and underwriting deals.
Now, his successors must try to keep those profits rolling. In addition to the sting of his departure, CSFB is on the hook to make a payout to Mr. Goodman and three other executives going with him. Under an agreement that Mr. Goodman made with Mr. Mack, CSFB will pay them almost $17 million in CSG stock that they have built up this year. That is in addition to standard year-end bonuses that for them are expected to be among the highest at the firm, potentially topping $10 million apiece for at least two of them and for Mr. Goodman much more.
In addition to the $1 billion Credit Opportunities Fund that Mr. Goodman and his three colleagues will run as a spinoff, CSFB is hiving off two other funds, including a merchant-banking venture that is being split off to avoid competing with investment-banking clients for deal opportunities. Mr. Dougan said the firm had to spin the other two off because the managers intended to leave otherwise. He noted that CSFB will remain the lead investor in the funds with an economic interest in the ventures.
Kathy Shanley, a senior analyst at Gimme Credit, an independent bond-research firm, said the pressure to make up for any revenue lost by the departure of top executives could "increase the temptation to rely on proprietary trading bets."
Indeed, betting more with house money is a key part of Mr. Dougan's new strategy for the firm. It has been a winner for others in recent years such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., but CSFB is playing catch up in the area. A few years ago, the firm had scaled back its risk taking after it incurred big losses in Russian debt and real estate. That pullback frustrated some big traders, including bond-trading star Alan Howard, who bolted to go on their own.
But such trading isn't always sustainable given market fluctuations and the chance of big blowups. That is why investors will likely look to CSFB's historical strengths in junk bonds and private-equity financings, and why Mr. Dougan will need to cultivate a new generation of talent to replace those executives leaving.
Since CSFB bought securities firm Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette in 2000, its high-yield, or junk-bond, financing business has been a core driver of CSFB's revenue. Under Mr. Goodman's direction of that business, before he started the Alternative Capital Division, CSFB maintained a lead in the lucrative business of underwriting junk bonds and providing loans to large buyout shops such as Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., and its private-equity business prospered as well because CSFB acquired its own expertise in investing in distressed companies and packaging those deals to investors.
These businesses have been particularly important over the past several years amid a slowdown in the firm's other big business, which was underwriting technology stocks. While tech activity has rebounded from the lows, it remains well below record levels. Still, CSFB did score a big coup earlier this year with its selection as a lead underwriter in the IPO of Internet search engine Google Inc., one of the hottest offerings in years.
Mr. Goodman's new Alternative Capital Division has been creating new investment vehicles and it manages CSFB's funds of hedge funds and real-estate investment funds, among other things. People familiar with the matter say Mr. Mack, the former CEO, considered the division a feather in the firm's cap and an attraction for any potential merger partner for the firm. He was ousted in part because the Swiss parent company didn't want him to seek a merger.
Mr. Goodman negotiated a sweet deal when he returned in part because of his concerns about his business should Mr. Mack leave CSFB. Initially, he asked for a clause that said that, if Mr. Mack left the firm, he and three colleagues would share $50 million in Credit Suisse stock, say people familiar with the negotiations. Instead, the firm agreed to a $50 million incentive package, with shares vesting over three years. According to those people, the other three are Doug Ostrover, who succeeded Mr. Goodman as head of leveraged finance, and Tripp Smith and Matt Quigley. Now, the four will receive just the first year's vesting, of about $17 million.
且慢为瑞士信贷集团的重组欢呼
投资者现在似乎认定瑞士信贷集团(Credit Suisse Group , CSR)将通过重组再现活力，但其新管理层可能并非最强阵容。
这家瑞士银行巨头的股票过去两个月来一路高歌，投资者们一直翘首以待其重组计划细节，这些内容本周早些时候终于浮出水面。该股10月1日以来的涨幅为26%左右，细节公布后的涨幅为4%左右。相比之下，竞争对手瑞士银行(UBS AG)的股价10月份以来涨幅仅为14%，本周更是跌了1%。
瑞士信贷集团投资银行子公司瑞士信贷第一波士顿(Credit Suisse First Boston)计划集中精力发展最有利润的业务，让不少人感到振奋。但作为重组的一部分，这家投资银行的新管理层实际上也分拆了一些具有前景的业务并和一些很有价值的收入来源痛苦作别。随分拆业务离开的那些管理人士实际上是CSFB杠杆金融特许业务的中坚力量；这项业务负责承销高收益率债券，为杠杆收购提供咨询，并管理私人资本运营投资基金。
一些分析师和业内人士表示，优秀人才的离去以及过去两年里公司其他部门的裁员将使CSFB从外部吸引人才的难度大大提高。而且，重新强调公司自有帐户的交易，也带来了很大的风险。
在周四的采访中，CSFB的首席执行长布拉迪?都根(Brady Dougan)承认，要填补这些优秀人才留下的空缺的确存在难度，但公司相信杠杆金融特许业务中的其他人将前仆后继地继续这项事业。“我们希望业务将继续，不会有太多停顿。我们希望不要出现脱节。”
对于CSFB来说，最大的损失就是杠杆金融业务头号专家班内特?古德曼(Bennett Goodman)的离去。古德曼曾在2003年末一度辞职，今春在时任首席执行长约翰?麦克(John Mack)的力劝下又返回经营新的另类投资部门，负责私人资本运营投资以及大量的另类投资工具。今夏麦克被公司驱逐后，古德曼在风波中倍感沮丧，最近告知最高管理层，他也希望离开。
古德曼的部门正在朝著年利润数亿美元的方向发展。此外，他在杠杆收购行业的深厚关系网也意味著这将伴随至少几千万美元的杠杆贷款和承销业务。
现在，他的继任者必须尽力保持利润的增长。除了古德曼的离去之痛，CSFB还不得不向古德曼以及跟随他而去的其他三位管理人士进行大笔支付。根据古德曼和麦克签署的协议，CSFB需向他们支付今年的近1,700万美元的瑞士信贷集团股票。此外，还有标准的年底分红，他们的分红估计将位于全公司最高水平，至少有两个人可能超出每人1,000万美元，而古德曼的则更高。
规模达10亿美元的Credit Opportunities Fund将被分拆出去，由古德曼和他的3位同事掌管。除此之外，CSFB还将分拆另外2个基金，包括一个商业银行基金，公司分拆这项业务是为了避免和投资银行业务的客户发生利益冲突。都根表示，由于基金经理打算离职，公司还得分拆另外两家基金。他指出，CSFB仍将是这些基金最大的股东。
债券研究公司Gimme Credit的高级分析师凯西?尚利(Kathy Shanley)表示，在填补高级管理人士离职带来的收入损失的压力下，CSFB可能会更加依赖于自营交易。
确实，加大对自营交易业务的投入是都根为公司制定的新战略的一个重要组成部分。近几年来，高盛(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)等公司一直在自营交易领域遥遥领先，但CSFB正在奋起直追。一些年前，CSFB在投资俄罗斯的债务及房地产方面曾经出现巨额亏损，之后CSFB收缩了自营交易的规模。这个举动令艾伦?霍华德(Alan Howard)等一些知名交易员大感失望，以致于后来这些交易员决定另起炉灶单干。
但由于市场的起伏不定以及存在出现重大损失的可能性，自营交易业务不可能总是四平八稳地发展。这就是为何投资者希望CSFB坚持垃圾债券及私募融资活动等传统强项业务，也是都根有必要培养新一代领导层以顶替离职管理人士的原因所在。
CSFB于2000年收购了证券公司Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette以后，它的垃圾债券融资业务就一直是公司收入增长的主要动力来源。在古德曼掌管另类投资部门之前的这段时间里，CSFB在垃圾债券承销以及向大型买断式企业提供贷款两个领域一直是无人能及。与此同时，CSFB的私人资本运营业务也在繁荣发展，原因是CSFB获得了资于经营状况不佳企业的经验，然后把这些交易打包出售给投资者。
过去几年来，在该公司另一项大型业务科技股承销出现下滑的时期，上述业务对公司整体业绩一直非常重要。虽然科技行业正在走出低谷，但与前几年的盛况相比仍不可同日而语。不过，CSFB今年早些时候拿到的一项业务堪称大手笔：在经办互联网搜索巨头Google Inc.的首次公开募股业务中，CSFB担任了主承销商。这次募股是多年来业界最引人注目的一次盛事。
古德曼后来所在的另类投资部门一直在开发新的投资工具，还管理著CSFB的各家对冲基金和房地产投资基金的资金，另外还有其他一些业务。据知情人士称，前首席执行长麦克认为这个部门是CSFB的骄傲，也是CSFB各部门中对潜在并购对手吸引力最大的。他之所以被请出CSFB，其中一个原因就是CSFB的瑞士母公司不希望他将CSFB与其他公司并购。
古德曼回到CSFB的时候跟CSFB谈成了一项很优惠的条件，这在一定程度上是因为他感到如果麦克离开CSFB，会对他的业务产生影响。据了解谈判内幕的人士说，起初古德曼提出一个要求：如果麦克离开CSFB，他和三名同事将分享价值5,000万美元的瑞士信贷的股票。
但CSFB同意给予他们价值5,000万美元的股票奖励，并将分三年逐步发放这笔奖励。据知情人士说，所提到的其他三位人士分别是奥斯托弗(Doug Ostrover)、施密斯(Tripp Smith)和奎格利(Matt Quigley)。奥斯托弗后来接替古德曼担任了杠杆融资部门的负责人。现在，他们四人将接受第一年相应的价值约1,700万美元的奖励。
