WTO Hong Kong Meeting Hinges On 2010 Subsidies-End Date
By OWEN BROWN
December 17, 2005 6:12 a.m.
of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
HONG KONG -- Trade negotiators in Hong Kong will burn the midnight oil Saturday in a bid to force the European Union to accept a 2010 deadline for ending agricultural export subsidies as part of a new global trade pact.
The Group of 20 countries has established a firm end date as the minimum objective for a six-day ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization that had already lowered its ambitions for an outcome.
With 24 hours to go, the WTO issued a draft text for an agreement in the hope that this will break some of the deadlock in issues as diverse as farm support and duty- and quota-free market access for the world's least-developed countries.
The negotiations are taking place against a backdrop of escalating violence from pitched street battles involving South Korean farmers, south-east Asian groups and European activists opposed to the WTO's rollback of global trade barriers.
A final agreement on a trade pact remains elusive, but a firm date for abolishing export subsidies has emerged as a possible catalyst to force the 149 WTO members toward making the necessary concessions to seal a deal next year in the Doha Development Agenda round, launched four years ago at a ministerial meeting in Qatar.
India's Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said the draft text still contained serious flaws but was at least a step forward toward the overall objective.
Negotiators should be able at least to agree to something so basic, simple and explicit as a 2010 deadline for ending agricultural subsidies, Nath said.
The E.U. has linked movement on farm-export subsidies to other nations' use of export credits, food aid and the monopoly rights of state-trading enterprises in Canada, Australian and New Zealand. European officials didn't surface Saturday, while holding their ground in private meetings.
Momentum Building Toward Final Deal
Brazil Foreign Minister Celso Amorim brushed aside an argument that the E.U.'s hands are tied because officials in Brussels have approved a budget that locks in financing for farm subsidies until 2013.
Speaking on behalf of the G20 agriculture exporting nations, Amorim said this round of trade negotiations shouldn't adapt to decisions already made in Brussels. If the E.U. has to alter its budget to reflect decisions made within the framework of the Doha round "then so be it," he said.
"Otherwise you could rule the world from Brussels," Amorim said at a news conference.
Overall, the draft text reflected the slow progress made this week during global trade talks between the WTO's sprawling membership of 149 nations and territories.
Major omissions include a specific formula for reducing agricultural trade barriers, a key demand of poorer nations. But the draft sets out a method for addressing service-sector issues and links progress on market access for industrial goods to paring back agricultural tariffs.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Portman said he hoped the weekend would generate incremental progress in these three major areas, while making bigger strides on development aid issues.
Portman said there was a good chance trade ministers would go home with a new deal to help the world's poorest countries.
"Things are going well. The end is in sight," Portman said. "I think we'll end up with some progress."
The U.S. supports the draft proposal linking agriculture issues to movement on the industrial goods sector."We take the E.U. at its word, which is that by creating that linkage, they're more likely to be able to be forthcoming on market access for agriculture," Portman said.
Portman said the U.S. hoped a draft framework for addressing service-sector issues would survive the weekend.
U.S. officials expressed concern about draft language that would put cotton on a separate, faster track than other agricultural issues but were willing to keep negotiating, despite resistance from U.S. farmers.
U.S. agriculture groups said Saturday that they are concerned about the cotton proposal and the prospect of a unilateral U.S. move during the global trade talks.
India's Nath said that while progress in Hong Kong on a global trade agreement has been incremental, it may provide momentum towards a final deal in 2006.
"I am confident that there will be progress in 2006. It will take time," he said.
"Before we were on a roundabout going round and round but now we are on the road."
Negotiators are expected to work through the night to reach common ground on a final text in the hope a statement can be approved at Sunday's closing session that prevents the collapse of the trade round.
"There is still enough for us to work with and we will go ahead and work with ambition," Canadian International Trade Affairs Minister James Peterson told reporters.
John Denton, chief executive officer of Australian law firm Corrs Chambers Westgarth, said trade negotiators shouldn't settle for "Doha lite"
"The Europeans must make substantive progress with its offers or they run the risk of degrading the world trading system," Denton said a briefing sponsored by a coalition of international business leaders.
"I believe there is a responsibility on the developed countries to be first movers."
最后关头达成协议 WTO谈判免遭全面失败
全球贸易谈判在香港落幕，与会代表们历时近24小时赶在会议结束前完成了最后一场谈判，首次为美欧两地取消某种农业补贴确定了具体日期。但除此以外，为期六天的贸易谈判几乎一无所获，与会各方在达成一项足以影响全球经济的更广泛贸易协议方面依然互不妥协。
采取行动的最后期限日益临近，与会的149个成员匆匆拼凑出一份宣言，就几项争议不算多的目标达成了协议，以免这场聚会像人们担忧的那样无果而终。与会各方承诺在2013年之前逐步取消农业补贴，并制定了一套多少掺了些水份的一揽子特殊贸易协定，以帮助最贫穷的32个国家更好地从全球经济一体化中受益。美国和欧盟双双承诺，将采取积极措施帮助非洲的棉花种植者。
很多更远大的目标这次根本就没有摆上谈判桌，例如开放全球的农业、服务业和制造业市场，以便各国大规模彼此开放市场，从而促进全球贸易的发展，等等。因此，本届香港会议也就避免了2003年坎昆会议全面受挫的不利局面。在1999年的西雅图会议全面受挫后，街头抗议和骚乱就成了每一届WTO会议必然面对的局面，香港会议也不例外。
但是，曾经对香港会议有所期待的高级贸易官员们在表示乐观情绪的同时也很谨慎，导致坎昆会议失败的障碍依然存在，他们将在明年春天的下一次WTO会议上面对这些难题。“一周来失望不绝如缕，”欧盟谈判代表曼德尔森(Peter Mandelson)说，能够就出口补贴达成协议“就算是个不小的胜利了。虽然不能因此就说本届会议大获成功，但也足可以说本次会议总算没有失败。”
本届会议原定要就取消贸易壁垒问题达成一项内容广泛的框架协议。WTO总干事拉米(Pascal Lamy)表示，香港会议将进程推进了5个百分点，取得的成果从55%提高到60%。
与会各国现在面对著一系列严格的最后期限，有些是他们自己设定的。在本届香港会议上，他们同意在明年4月30日之前签署一份框架协议，发誓要在2006年年底之前完成本轮WTO谈判。美国官员表示，这样白宫就可以赢得充分的时间，以便在2007年7月总统的贸易谈判权到期之前推动这项协议在国会通过。否则，在那之后国会就能因为某些内容不符合美国利益而否决整个协议。香港会议就援助穷国问题达成的协议已经在美国国会引起质疑，几位重量级议员警告说，协议过于关注发展中国家的需求，却对美国的贸易重点关注不够。
然而，香港会议也为明年春天的会议定下了一个并不鼓舞人心的调子。取消出口补贴这类本来不能算作重要议题的事情却成了大会的主要内容，而更重要更广泛的议题却并未触及。外交官们估计，在大约100个小时的所谓“绿屋谈判”──即30-40个重要国家的贸易部长举行的会议──中20%的时间都被用来讨论取消补贴的具体日期。实际上，这些部长们大约18个月以前就已经同意取消补贴，只差确定一个具体日期罢了。
这项协议的签署意味著欧盟将不得不停止发放每年大约25亿至30亿欧元（30亿至36亿美元）的出口补贴，这项补贴掩盖了高价欧盟农产品和低价全球农产品之间的价差。尚不清楚协议的条文将如何落实到美国的农产品出口项目中去，因为美国的农产品出口补贴都是通过食品援助和出口信贷的方式提供的。援助机构国际乐施会(Oxfam International)估算，美国需要取消大约2亿美元的出口信贷补贴。
国际乐施会还估计，香港协议意味著美国将被迫调整其食品援助项目。根据该项目原来的规定，美国农民向穷国捐助的农产品可以获得政府补贴。香港会议的宣言草案称，食品援助项目应该允许继续提供紧急食品援助，但不应被用来向农民提供补贴。美国每年向穷国提供的食品援助一般都在10亿至30亿美元之间。国际乐施会称，从近期情况看，30%-40%的援助并未提供给那些真正面临危机的国家。至于这项援助项目的细节如何进行调整，还要在未来几个月才能逐步厘清。
众多成员国之间的种种分歧令大家难以达成共识，迫使会员国作出其他妥协。例如，一度被看作本届会议中心议题的项目──向32个最贫穷的成员国提供免税、免配额进入发达国家市场的待遇──就因为美国和日本的反对而难以获得通过。美国担心孟加拉国和柬埔寨等国的纺织品会蜂拥进入美国。
根据周日确定的计划，各成员国针对从这些贫穷国家进口产品的关税可以维持在正常水平，最高税率为3%。这虽高于许多发展中国家的预期，但也足以引发美国农产品和纺织品生产商的反对声了。
在棉花问题上香港会议也一样未尽全功。作为向非洲撒哈拉以南地区棉花种植者的让步，美国承诺在明年年底之前取消棉花出口补贴，但在如何以及何时削减棉花产品的国内补贴这个更广泛的议题上成员国们却没能达成一致，不过美国还是保证要采取比其他农产品生产国更积极的措施来控制棉花补贴。协议还呼吁WTO领袖们尝试设立一个特殊项目，以帮助非洲国家应对上述政策调整使其收入产生的意外波动。
对很多成员国来说，这次会议似乎根本没有关注那些真正紧要的问题。美国贸易顾问机构Bryant Christie Inc.的常务董事克里斯蒂(James Christie)说，该公司代表的行业和企业已经感到不耐烦了，因为谈判代表们总是在细节问题上打转转，迟迟不能就削减全球农产品和制成品关税展开谈判。例如，加州鲜食葡萄生产商在向韩国出口时就面临高达45%的关税。他们认为，如果像美国建议的那样削减农产品关税，他们就能在韩国占据更大的市场份额。就服务业关税的讨价还价也凸现了谈判代表们在香港会议上面临的种种困境。
人们目前争论的是，各成员国是现在就应被要求谈判这一问题呢，还是它们只须表达一下愿意谈判的态度就行了。最终，宣言草案并未要求成员国一定要就此问题展开进一步谈判。制造业方面，与会代表在关税削减幅度以及如何平衡富国与穷国之间的关税削减幅度问题上依然存在巨大分歧。
美国和欧盟主张，关税较高的发展中国家削减关税的幅度应该超过发达国家。
美国全国制造商协会(National Association of Manufacturers)的主席恩格勒(John Engler)说，参加香港会议的谈判代表们没什么成绩可以展示他们的努力。“这让人们怀疑他们实现任何目标的能力，”他指的是日益临近的最后行动期限。“他们的确把自己置于困境之中了。”
