Delivery Services 'One Throat to Choke'
In the era of snazzy technology, it's worth remembering how much of that stuff gets from here to there in a humdrum box in the back of a truck. Done right, which usually happens, the trip is precisely synchronized, right down to how briskly your delivery person carries the package the last few steps to the front door.
Delivering packages might not be an exciting business, but it's a huge business -- and hugely important. The four major parcel carriers in the U.S. -- United Parcel Service Inc., FedEx Corp., the U.S. Postal Service and the DHL unit of Deutsche Post AG -- together handle roughly 23 million shipments a day. They keep factories chugging, replenish customers with inventory and help Santa survive Christmas.
THE JOURNAL REPORT
See the full Trends report.It's a tough job, and it's getting tougher. Here are 10 hot topics in the package-delivery world.
1 > BRANCHING OUT
While FedEx still is the king of overnight packages and UPS dominates ground shipments, both companies are barreling into new businesses in hopes of broadening their reach beyond the types of deliveries that made them household names.
Atlanta-based UPS bought trucking company Overnite Corp. for $1.25 billion in August. It was the largest acquisition in UPS's history, and intensified the competition with FedEx, which gobbled up trucking carrier American Freightways Corp. in 2001.
With their expansions, the shipping companies are burrowing deeper into the supply chains of customers to help companies eliminate much of the unpredictability in their operations and steer shipments as efficiently as possible -- even if that means avoiding the priciest delivery options the two carriers provide.
But the rival delivery giants disagree on how far to take the one-company-fits-all strategy. As a result of about 30 acquisitions since going public in 1999, UPS says it can do everything from running warehouses for its customers to lending them the money they need for their own expansion. FedEx Chief Financial Officer Alan Graf Jr. told analysts and investors last month that "you've got to really think" before "you put all your eggs in one basket."
Michael Eskew, UPS's chairman and chief executive officer, acknowledges one drawback of being a one-stop shop: Customers "call it one throat to choke," he said in a meeting with Wall Street Journal reporters and editors in September, "and they look at our throat to do that."
2 > BULLS IN THE CHINA MARKET
Carriers are ramping up their Chinese operations to grab a bigger piece of the country's export-led economic growth.
UPS plans to open a cargo hub in Shanghai by 2007, its first in mainland China, as part of a $500 million investment in the country. And after taking direct control of much of its express-delivery business in China from Sinotrans, a government-owned transportation company that operated as an agent for UPS since 1988, UPS is going head-to-head against state-run China Post, which had a near monopoly on domestic deliveries until recently.
FedEx will open a $150 million Asian hub in 2008 in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou, countering a move by DHL to double the size of its air-freight operation at Hong Kong International Airport in 2007.
3 > DHL'S UPHILL RIDE
DHL is struggling in the U.S., where it has an estimated market share of just 7%. But lately it has shown signs of a rebound. "We've made great progress on stabilizing the basic business, probably even a little faster than we hoped," John Mullen, a joint chief executive of DHL Express, said in August, claiming the company's on-time performance is "consistently" equal to that of FedEx and UPS.
DHL seems to be recovering from a series of missteps that set back its progress in the U.S. market. After plans were announced in 2004 to spend $1.2 billion to build or upgrade DHL shipment-sorting facilities and make other improvements to its delivery network throughout the U.S., it looked like the carrier would inch closer in the rearview mirrors of UPS and FedEx, which have a combined 80% share of their home market. But then came potholes big enough to swallow a yellow DHL delivery van.
Late deliveries, inconsistent customer service, snarled billing and other problems added up to a loss of �495 million ($581 million) in 2004 for DHL Express Americas, much worse than the forecast of a loss of �300 million. The U.S. business isn't predicted to break even until the fourth quarter of 2006.
4 > LABOR-MANAGEMENT TURBULENCE
It's a bad omen for contract negotiations if labor and management can't even agree on how much workers are currently being paid.
According to the union representing the 2,500 pilots flying UPS packages and other freight throughout the world, the typical pilot's pay is $168,000 a year. UPS says its pilots make an average of $175,830 yearly. Given that, maybe it's no surprise that the two sides remain stuck after three years of negotiations on issues that include compensation and retirement benefits.
Meanwhile, FedEx last month asked the National Mediation Board to intervene in contract talks with its 4,300 pilots, claiming that the union wouldn't allow members to vote on a deal that would have "cemented" their bragging rights as the best-paid pilots in the aviation industry.
Get used to the war of words. With pilots at major passenger carriers such as Delta Air Lines agreeing to huge concessions in an effort to stem catastrophic losses, the era of how-high-can-you-go pilot contracts is over, meaning pilots at FedEx and UPS don't have lots of leverage. On the other hand, the two delivery companies made combined profit of $4.78 billion on revenue of $65.95 billion in their most recent fiscal years, and their pilots say it's time to share the wealth.
5 > THE TRACKING COMPETITION
Delivery companies show no signs of slowing the race to improve package-tracking capabilities and other customer-oriented features.
Next year, the post office will start using 300,000 so-called Intelligent Mail devices, hand-held scanners that will make it much easier to track a piece of mail all along its route.
But the Postal Service has a lot of catching up to do. UPS now collects electronic data on 95% of the packages that move through its U.S. system each day. And FedEx Billing Online gives real-time access not only to certain shipment details but also to customer accounts and invoices.
6 > PRICE SUPPORT
With such fierce rivalries, you would think customers could get a break on shipping rates by pitting the delivery companies against each other to get the lowest price.
Wrong. The resilient economy continues to generate robust growth in shipping volume, meaning space is tight on railroad cars, cargo ships and package-delivery trucks. Ground-delivery customers surveyed in September by James Valentine, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, expected the biggest jump in shipment volume since his survey began in 2001.
Meanwhile, UPS and FedEx in particular are being careful not to ruthlessly undercut each other as they spar for customers, since Wall Street gets panicky at any hint of a price war. As a result, the pricing environment is "aggressive on a market-by-market and an account-by-account basis, but stable and rational," Daniel J. Sullivan, president and chief executive of FedEx's ground-delivery operation, said last month.
Customers will have to dig even deeper into their pockets next year. On Jan. 2, FedEx plans to boost rates on air shipments in and from the U.S. by 5.5% -- the largest percentage increase in at least nine years. This year's increase on those deliveries was 4.6%. UPS will also raise air-shipment rates 5.5%.
7 > FUEL FINANCES
Fueling the more than 88,000 delivery vehicles and nearly 600 planes used by UPS to crisscross the world cost $1.41 billion in the first nine months of 2005, a 45% increase compared with a year earlier. Sky-high fuel prices have triggered an energy-conservation binge that saves more than $1 million a month at UPS's airline, partly by having planes use only one engine when taxiing. But the brunt of rising energy costs is being passed along to customers.
Strong demand has made delivery companies more successful than many other industries in adding substantial fuel surcharges to basic pricing, which can increase delivery costs by more than 10%. (The Postal Service doesn't use fuel surcharges, so it has been trying to buy fuel in bulk so it can negotiate lower prices.)
Fuel prices have been climbing so fast that it has been hard for the delivery companies' surcharge mechanisms to keep up. FedEx adjusts its surcharges once a month, but it can take as long as six weeks after fuel prices rise for FedEx to start recovering the increases from customers.
8 > DELIVERING EXTRA FEES
Package carriers also are hitting millions of customers with a growing list of "accessorial" fees that the companies defend as a way to zero in on deliveries that are the costliest to make.
For example, houses and apartments usually are scattered more widely than office buildings, and drivers in residential areas sometimes have to make another delivery attempt when residential recipients aren't home. So FedEx, of Memphis, Tenn., adds $2 to the price of every air shipment to a residential address, plus as much as $2 if the destination is rural. Both those fees will climb by five cents to 10 cents in January.
The push to raise fees began several years ago, and now it's hard to avoid paying extra. The total number of items on UPS's accessorial list is 36, including a 50-cent fee for certain specially printed return labels and a hazardous-materials surcharge of $20 on ground shipments. Putting the wrong address on your package will cost you as much as $10.
The Postal Service doesn't charge more for residential or rural deliveries. But it can't match the delivery guarantees or package-tracking capabilities offered by the private companies.
9 > POSTAL SERVICE REBOUND
Despite its shortcomings, the Postal Service is staging a comeback in the package-delivery market as a three-year lull in rate increases restores its bargain-basement status.
The volume of Priority Mail and Express Mail deliveries rose 4% in the first nine months of the current fiscal year from a year earlier. Those deliveries had declined in each of the previous four full fiscal years.
Another positive sign: Dell Inc. recently began steering some computer shipments to the Postal Service instead of delivery companies. Mr. Valentine, the Morgan Stanley analyst, estimated the Postal Service could win more than two million shipments a year from Dell, plus lots of attention for its new "hold for pickup" service, in which recipients pick up deliveries at a post office instead of having them delivered to their home address.
10 > HERE, THERE, EVERYWHERE
The number of shipping locations is mushrooming as delivery companies escalate their fight for small and medium-size business customers. These customers typically account for some of the industry's most profitable shipments, since they lack the bargaining power of bigger companies with more regular deliveries.
FedEx now has more than 1,450 Kinko's outlets, up from 1,200 when it acquired the copy-store chain in February 2004 for $2.4 billion. UPS has a franchised network of more than 5,500 retail shipping locations. These outlets' offerings include pack-and-ship services and document production and shipment.
The formula seems to be working. According to Colography Group Inc., a transportation consulting and research firm in Atlanta, 13.7% of all U.S. air shipments and 14.5% of ground deliveries in 2004 were made at a Kinko's, UPS Store, post-office counter or other "retail access point."
递送业－“都往一个喉咙里灌”
在如今这个科技眩目的时代，人们有理由记住货物是如何装入统一的盒子、用卡车从一处运到另一处的。如果一切顺利，这也是通常的情况，那么这个旅程将被协调得分秒不差，递送时间仅仅取决于递送员拿著包裹走向大门那几步的速度。
递送包裹也许并不是什么激动人心的行业，但它的确是个庞大的产业──而且非常重要。美国四家最大的递送公司──联合包裹服务公司(United Parcel Service Inc., 简称UPS)、联邦快递集团(FedEx Corp.)、美国邮政总局(U.S. Postal Service)和德国邮政(Deutsche Post AG)旗下的敦豪公司(DHL)──每天处理货物达2,300万件。他们的工作令工厂正常运转、客户库存得到补充，圣诞老人也得以捱过忙碌的圣诞。
这是一个充满挑战和机遇的行业。下面是该行业的十大热门话题：
1. 扩大服务领域
虽然联邦快递仍然统治著隔夜送达业务，而UPS则在地面运输方面占据优势，但两家公司都在进军新的领域，希望在令自己家喻户晓的递送业务以外能够有所发展。
今年8月，UPS出资12.5亿美元收购卡车运输公司Overnite Corp.，这宗UPS历史上最大的收购使得UPS和联邦快递之间的竞争进一步升级。联邦快递曾于2001年收购卡车运输公司American Freightways Corp.。
扩张使得这两家递送公司更深入地参与到了客户的供应链中，大大地降低了客户运营中的不确定性，也极大地提高了运输效率──即便是客户没有选择这两家公司提供的价格最高的递送服务。自1999年上市以来已进行了大约30次收购的UPS宣称，无论是帮助客户管理仓库，还是向因扩张业务而需要资金的客户贷款，UPS无所不能。
但是其他递送业巨头对于要建立何种程度的“全能公司”有不同意见。联邦快递的首席财务长小艾伦?格莱夫(Alan Graf Jr.)上月对分析师和投资者说，“在把所有的东西都投到一桩买卖前你可要仔细想想啊”。
UPS的董事长兼首席执行长迈克尔?埃斯丘(Michael Eskew)承认一站式服务有一个缺点：客户们“称这是都往一个喉咙里灌，”他在9月约见《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)的记者和编辑们时说，“他们希望灌到我们这个喉咙里。”
2. 看好中国市场
为了在中国以出口主导的经济增长中占取更大份额，递送公司正在扩张它们的中国业务。
UPS计划于2007年在上海设立其于中国大陆的第一个转运中心，这是它在中国投资5亿美元的一部分项目。此外，自去年底，从合作伙伴、国有运输公司中国外运(Sinotrans)手中收购了大多数快递业务的直接控制权后，UPS更是开始与国有的中国邮政(China Post)展开正面交锋，而直到最近，中国邮政还几乎垄断著中国国内的邮递市场。
联邦快递斥资1.5亿美元，计划到2008年在中国南方城市广州建成一个亚洲转运中心，以应对敦豪有关2007年将其在香港国际机场的航空货运能力提升一倍的计划。
3. 敦豪的艰难崛起
敦豪在美国的发展并不顺利，市场占有率估计只有7%。不过最近公司的业绩有回升的迹象。敦豪快递(DHL Express)的联席首席执行长约翰?穆伦(John Mullen)今年8月表示，“我们在稳定基本业务方面取得了很大进展，甚至可能比我们预想得还要快。”他说，公司在准时递送方面的表现与联邦快递和UPS“一贯”相当。
敦豪似乎正从一系列阻碍其在美国市场发展的失误中走出来。自2004年公司宣布将耗资12亿美元建设或升级包裹分检设施，并对全美的递送网络作出其他改进以来，敦豪和UPS与联邦快递的距离似乎拉近了一些；UPS和联邦快递在美国的市场占有率共达80%。但是紧接著，前方道路上就出现了一个足以吞噬黄色敦豪运输车的大坑洞。
递送晚点、服务质量不稳定、帐单混乱以及其他问题令敦豪快递的美国业务在2004年亏损4.95亿欧元（合5.81亿美元），比预计的3亿欧元亏损额还要糟，这块业务估计到2006年第四季度前都无法实现收支平衡。
4. 劳资矛盾
如果劳资双方连目前员工的工资是多少都意见不一，对新的劳工合同谈判来说可不是什么好兆头。
在UPS，情况便是如此。代表2,500名货机飞行员的工会称，目前一名普通飞行员一年的收入是16.8万美元，但公司方面却说，公司飞行员的年均收入是17.583万美元。因此，双方在就工资和退休福利等谈判了三年后，还是处于僵持中。
而联邦快递，上个月要求美国国家仲裁委员会(National Mediation Board)介入其与4,300名飞行员的劳工合同谈判。联邦快递声称，工会不允许其成员就一项协议投票表决，该协议将“绝对保证”他们成为航空业薪水最高的飞行员。
这类口舌之战并不新鲜。达美航空(Delta Air Lines)等一些主要客运航空公司的飞行员在经过漫长的谈判后，已同意作出很大的让步，以帮助公司止住巨额亏损。飞行员天价合约的时代已经过去，因此联邦快递和UPS的飞行员手中并没有太多砝码。
不过，联邦快递和UPS在最近的财年中的确实现了收入659.5亿美元和利润47.8亿美元，飞行员都嚷嚷，现在该分钱啦！
5. “跟踪”竞赛
递送公司在提高包裹跟踪能力和改进顾客导向的特色服务上并没有丝毫放松。
明年，美国的各个邮局将开始使用300,000件名为“智能邮件”(Intelligent Mail)的设备，这种手持式的扫描机将令邮件跟踪更为便利。
但是美国邮政总局还有许多落后的地方。对于每天在美国投递的包裹，UPS可以收集到它们95%的电子数据。而联邦快递的在线订单查询不仅可以实时提供递送细节，而且可以提供客户交易记录和客户发票。
6. 价格支持
面对如此激烈的竞争，你也许会认为顾客在运费方面可以松口气，通过比较各递送公司的价格得到实惠。
错！经济复苏令货运量持续增长，这意味著火车、轮船和卡车的空间都很紧张。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师詹姆斯?瓦伦丁(James Valentine)9月对地面运输的客户所作的调查显示，这些客户预计货运量的增加幅度是此调查自2001年开始以来最大的一次。
此外，UPS和联邦快递在争夺顾客时对削价也都表现得十分谨慎，因为任何价格战的风吹草动都可能引起华尔街投资者的恐慌。联邦快递地面运输业务的总裁和首席执行长丹尼尔?沙利文(Daniel J. Sullivan)上月表示，价格环境“在个别市场和个别交易上竞争激烈，但是整体稳定而且合理。”
明年递送公司的客户们还要掏更多的钱。1月2日，联邦快递将对进出美国的空运价格提高5.5%──这是至少9年以来提价幅度最大的一次。今年对这项服务的提价幅度是4.6%。UPS也将对空运价格提高5.5%。
7. 燃油成本
UPS在全球各地拥有超过88,000辆运输工具以及将近600架飞机，今年前9个月这些交通工具的燃油成本就高达14.1亿美元，比上年同期增长了45%。高昂的燃油价格引发了一场节能热潮，比如飞机在起飞前或降落后的滑行阶段只使用一个引擎等等，于是在一个月内UPS空运部门就节省成本100多万美元。不过，能源价格上涨的压力主要还是转嫁给了客户。
强劲的市场需求使递送业比其他许多行业都可以更顺利地将大部分燃油附加费增加到基本定价上，这令递送费用增长了10%以上。（美国邮政总局并没有加收燃油附加费，所以它一直努力通过批量购买燃油得到低价。）
燃油价格的上涨速度很快，递送公司的附加费制度有时难以追上它的脚步。比如联邦快递，其附加费就是每月调整一次。
8. 其他附加费用
递送公司向客户收取的其他“附加”费用也越来越名目繁多，他们辩称这样做是为了补贴成本高昂的门到门递送。
举例来讲，住宅分布通常比写字楼更分散，如果住户不在，递送人员有时就不得不再次前往。所以，联邦快递对寄往住宅区的航空邮件每件加收2美元，如果住宅位于郊区，则要再加收2美元。明年1月，这些附加费还将调高5-10美分。
调高递送费用的努力几年前就开始了，现在这已是大势所趋。UPS的附加费用共有36种，包括对地面危险品运输加收20美元等。如果包裹写错了地址，就需要支付10美元。
美国邮政总局对住宅区或郊区的递送并不多收费。但是它在递送承诺以及包裹跟踪服务方面无法和私营公司相比。
9. 美国邮政总局重现生机
尽管存在种种不足，美国邮政总局还是在递送市场杀了个回马枪，因为三年来费率没有提高令它重新得到了廉价的名声。
在本财年的前9个月，优先邮件和快件数量比上年同期增长4%。而这类邮件数量在此前的整整四个财年中每年都在减少。
另一个积极的现象是：最近戴尔公司(Dell Inc.)开始将部分电脑运输任务从递送公司移交给美国邮政总局。摩根士丹利的分析师瓦伦丁预计，美国邮政总局每年可以从戴尔公司手里得到超过200万件运输任务。同时，美国邮政总局新推出的“邮件自取”服务也受到广泛关注，这样邮件就不必一定投递到收件人的住处，收件人可以去邮局取件。
10. 递送服务网点无处不在
随著递送公司对中小型企业客户的争夺日益激烈，递送服务网点也在迅速增加。递送公司在这些客户身上通常是最有利可图的，因为它们不像大公司那样经常需要递送服务，所以也就不具备讨价还价的砝码。
2004年2月，联邦快递以24亿美元收购复印连锁店Kinko后，其拥有的Kinko门店数量从1,200家增加到1,450家以上。而UPS的特许网络则拥有5,500多家零售运输服务点。这些服务点提供包装递送、文档制作和递送服务。
这个模式似乎很有效果。据运输业咨询研究公司Colography Group Inc.的统计，2004年全美13.7%的航空运输以及14.5%的地面运输业务都是通过Kinko连锁店、UPS服务点、邮局柜台或其他“零售点”实现的。
