Counting on Getting an Inheritance?Better Make Other Retirement Plans
If you're counting on an inheritance from your parents to rescue your underfunded retirement plans, you could be playing a very dangerous game.
Despite predictions of a massive transfer of wealth between generations, many baby boomers can expect to get little or nothing from their parents.
Economists and financial experts can't agree on how much money baby boomers and their offspring are likely to inherit, and their predictions of the total sum involved vary widely. But many agree that wealthy families are far more likely to receive a windfall, and that many other would-be heirs will end up disappointed.
About 64% of those who receive bequests of $100,000 or more are already well off, ranking in the top quintile of net worth, according to an AARP study analyzing the Federal Reserve Board's 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances, the most recent figures available. The median inheritance baby boomers received was about $48,000, but 83% of them said they'd received no inheritance to date.
"It's fair to say that expectation is greater than reality," says Paul G. Schervish, director of Boston College's Center on Wealth and Philanthropy. The Center estimates that at least $45 trillion will be left over the next five decades, though others argue that projection is too high.
For those who do inherit something, it's often not as bountiful as they hope. A big portion of large estates goes to pay taxes and is bequeathed to charities, according to Mr. Schervish. And there are some hints that the inheritance pie may get sliced even thinner.
? Living longer. Increasing longevity is a primary reason for many of today's inheritance letdowns. A 65-year-old man today is expected to live to age 81, while a 65-year-old woman should live until 84 -- nearly two decades beyond typical retirement age. Most wealth goes to a surviving spouse before it reaches children or grandchildren, so some heirs are well into retirement themselves by the time an inheritance arrives.
It's not unusual for a once-$1 million nest egg to be whittled down to almost nothing. Health-care costs are soaring, and nursing home bills run over $100,000 annually in some parts of the country. About 40% of those 65 and older will spend at least a short time in a nursing home, according to AARP. Many more, however, spend their final years in assisted-living centers, which at the highest levels of care can rival nursing home costs, AARP says.
Dan Littell, 63, of Plainfield, Ind., saw it happen. His mother entered a nursing home six years ago with more than $400,000 left from his father's estate. She spent $6,000 a month in nursing home bills and prescription drugs in her last few years, and left around $200,000 to her son when she died at age 94 last year. Losing the inheritance money convinced him and his wife to buy long-term care insurance "so our children won't have to experience the same thing we've gone through," he says.
? Making it last. Another culprit: A greater share of retirees' financial resources has become annuitized, eating into wealth they might otherwise bequeath, according to a 2000 report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
When considering traditional pension income, Social Security, Medicare and other government benefits, about 50% of all financial resources of those 65 and older was annuitized in the 1990s, versus 20% in the 1960s. While a large portion of that was not by choice and paid through income taxes, a growing share today is voluntary: Many retirees are now using their savings to buy life insurance policies, such as fixed annuities, that guarantee fixed monthly payments for life in exchange for handing over a lump sum. Others are taking out reverse mortgages, which allow you to borrow against your home's value without making any repayments during your lifetime.
? Giving it away. Even aging parents with ample wealth to pass along aren't necessarily leaving it to their kids. Surveys suggest that boomers and their parents are often opting instead to give more to charity or spend it all themselves. Others are passing along their wealth to their family before they die, often as an estate-planning technique.
For would-be heirs, the lesson is clear: You can never be sure of any inheritance.
Jarah Tuttle, 35, a real-estate agent in Greenwich, Conn., and her family expected to receive a seven-figure inheritance from her uncles, who owned a successful insurance business. The last surviving uncle, however, left the money in a trust for a girlfriend in Florida, naming the family as the ultimate beneficiary. The girlfriend lived for over a decade off income from the trust and the remaining $420,000 or so was divided between eight family members. "I guess it was his money," Ms. Tuttle says. "Though we didn't know it was going to work out that way."
? Getting real. To thwart such inheritance surprises, older generations should discuss inheritance expectations with their heirs and consult experienced advisers who can draw up estimates of how big an inheritance will be left, says Timothy Wyman, a tax attorney and certified financial planner in Southfield, Mich. But parents don't always feel like their children should have such foreknowledge -- making it difficult to really prepare. And parents themselves don't know what the future holds.
Mr. Wyman says when clients anticipate an inheritance and want it factored into their retirement forecasts, he'll do it, but "I usually discount it." he says. "If a client says Mom and Dad have a net worth of $2 million, for planning purposes, I'll just assume you receive 50% of that amount."
别指望靠遗产安度晚年
如果你指望靠父母的遗产来挽救你资金不足的退休计划，那么你可能在玩一个危险的游戏。
尽管有预计称代代相传的财富规模庞大，但许多婴儿潮时期出生的人从父辈那里继承的遗产料将微乎其微，或者什么也得不到。
经济学家和金融专家对婴儿潮一代及其子女有可能继承多少财产意见不一。实际上，他们作出的总额预测分歧非常大。但很多人都认为，少数富有的家庭有可能继承一笔横财，但其他许多人最后都会感到失望。
根据AARP对联邦储备委员会2001年消费者金融调查(Federal Reserve Board's 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances)的分析研究，在继承10万美元或以上财富的家庭当中，约有64%已经属于富裕家庭。婴儿潮一代所继承的财产的中值约为4.8万美元，但其中83%的家庭称至今没有获得遗产。
“很清楚，预期超出现实，”波士顿学院财富和慈善中心(Boston College's Center on Wealth and Philanthropy)主任舍维什(Paul G. Schervish)说。该中心估计，未来50年当中，至少将有45万亿美元的遗产，但其他人认为这一预期过高。
对于那些确实继承了一些遗产的人来说，他们实际所得不及预期是常有的事。舍维什称，庞大遗产的很大一部分流入税收，或被捐赠给慈善机构。而且，有迹象表明，遗产这块大蛋糕可能被切得更小了。
--寿命延长。寿命延长是如今遗产减少的主要原因。今天，一个65岁的男人预计能活到81岁，而一个65岁的女人能活到84岁－－超出常见退休年龄近20年。大多数财富在传到子女或者孙辈手里之前首先会传到仍然活著的配偶那里，因此一些继承人在获得遗产的时候自己也已经退休多年了。
一笔价值100万美元的退休积蓄逐渐化为乌有并不少见。医疗保健成本大幅攀升，在美国部分地区，疗养院每年的费用要超过10万美元。根据AARP的资料，在65岁以上的人口当中，约有40%会在疗养院居住至少一段时间。AARP表示，更多的人会在养护中心度过余生，而其最高级别的护理可以与养老院的成本相当。
现年63岁的利特尔(Dan Littell)就碰到过这种情况。他住在印第安纳州Plainfield。六年前，他的母亲住进了一家疗养院，当时他父亲留给她的遗产有40多万美元。在她最后几年的时间里，她每个月花在疗养院和处方药上的费用高达6,000美元。去年，当她以94岁高龄去世的时候，她留给儿子的财产约为20万美元。损失遗产并不是什么大事，利特尔说，但这促使他和妻子购买了长期护理保险，“以便我们的孩子不会再重复我们的经历。”
--细水长流。根据克利夫兰联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) 2000年的一份报告，导致遗产减少的另一个罪魁祸首是：退休者较大一部分的金融资源被年金化，导致他们可能遗留的财产减少。
如果考虑传统退休金收入、社会保障、Medicare和其他政府福利，90年代期间，65岁以上人口持有的所有金融资源的大约50%都被年金化了，而在60年代，这个比例只有20%。虽然其中很大一部分并非出于自己的选择，而是通过所得税支付的，但今天自愿进行年金化的比例正不断上升：许多退休者都在用自己的储蓄购买保险产品，如固定年金计划，以保障终身得到固定的月付款。其他人则采取反向抵押贷款，他们可以由此根据房屋的价值进行借贷，而无需在有生之年偿还贷款。
--捐掉或花掉。即便是拥有大量财富的年长父母也不一定就会把财产留给后代。调查显示，婴儿潮一带及其父母经常选择将更多的财产捐赠给慈善机构，或者自己全部花光。其他人则在去世前就把财产转给了家人，并经常以此作为一种遗产规划技巧。
对于那些准继承人来说，教训很明显：你永远也不能确定会得到任何遗产。
现年35岁的房地产经纪人塔特尔(Jarah Tuttle)来自康涅狄格州格林威治，她和她的家人原本以为可以从她的叔叔们那里获得一笔七位数的遗产，她的叔叔们拥有一家成功的保险企业。可是，最后弥留的一位叔叔为了佛罗里达州的女友把钱存放在一家信托机构里，指定塔特尔一家作为最后的受益人。这位女友靠著信托基金的收入活了10多年，剩下的大约42万美元在8位家庭成员中间平分。 “我想那是他的钱，”塔特尔说，“只是我们没想到结果会这样。”
--现实点。为了防止这样的意外情况出现，老一代应当和他们的继承人讨论未来的遗产问题，税收律师和注册金融规划师怀曼(Timothy Wyman)说。但父母并不总是觉得他们的子女有必要提前知道－－这让真正准备起来变得较为困难。而且，父母自己也不知道将来会怎么样。
怀曼说，当客户预期会得到一笔遗产，并希望把它考虑到他们的退休预期当中时，他会照办，但“我通常会打个折扣，”他说。“如果一位客户说他的父母资产净值为200万美元，在做规划时，我只是假设他只能获得其中的50%。”
