In Tiny Sultanate,Days of Easy Living May Be Numbered
After Years of Perks, Bruneians
Worry About Oil Wealth;
BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN, Brunei -- His Majesty, Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu'izzaddin Waddaulah, has a problem: Oil is king in this tiny sultanate on the steamy island of Borneo. And it may be running out.
For years, Delaware-sized Brunei had an outsized presence in the global oil patch, pumping out a rich stream of crude oil and natural gas. With its share of the royalties, the Sultan and his family became one of the richest in the world. Their home, with 1,800 rooms and 250 toilets, is considered to be the largest residence in the world. Among the clan's glittering trinkets: a forearm and hand made of solid gold that the Sultan can use as a chin rest when deep in thought.
His Majesty's 370,000 subjects have it pretty good, too. Although many live in ramshackle stilt houses, they pay no personal income tax, enjoy virtually free health care, and often study at the world's finest universities -- on the sultanate's tab. Brunei also lavishes its many government workers with another layer of perks, including no-interest loans for housing and cars.
"Jobs are the last thing on [people's] minds" here, said Zaed Hani, a 17-year-old with shoulder-length black hair as he sipped lattes with friends one recent night at a cafe called T.T. Blues. The government, he said, has always taken care of its people.
But even as oil prices soar past $60 a barrel, many here fear the days of easy living are numbered. Oil production peaked as far back as 1979, and analysts now say the sultanate could face a serious output squeeze within the next decade. Last year, Brunei pumped out 206,000 barrels of oil a day, slightly less than the year before.
"They say there will be more oil," said Abdul Zainidi, a 22-year-old student who sat outside a mall with a bag of Kentucky Fried Chicken. "We know there won't be."
Oil and gas total more than 90% of Brunei's exports. Given current trends, even government optimists concede they can't continue to support the many young people spilling out of the local university each year. The median age of Bruneians is 27, compared with 36 years in the U.S.
During his annual birthday address in July, the Sultan addressed the need to diversify, and assured his subjects that his government "is not complacent" about attracting more foreign investment. Now, after years of half-hearted attempts to do so, he has dispatched some of his best men to recruit new industries -- such as tourism, petrochemicals and offshore banking.
In Brunei, late-model BMWs and fast-food chains abound, including a Dairy Queen. A host of international banks dot the downtown Bandar Seri Begawan area, serving a long list of monied locals. Turning the sultanate into Asia's next tourism and industrial hotspot, however, won't be easy.
There's no alcohol for sale here, in accordance with Islamic law. It doesn't help that the Sultan -- who also moonlights as the country's prime minister, finance minister and defense minister -- keeps key information close to the royal vest. The actual size of Brunei's oil reserves, for example, is a closely guarded secret. No one other than a secretive government investment agency knows how much money the country has salted away for a rainy day.
As for economic diversification, "everybody makes noises just to feel good, but nothing very much happens," says Ignatius Stephen, a journalist who recently opened up for a government-subsidized root canal (his cost: $1.80). "There's a complacency that's very, very difficult to shake off," he says.
"Puzzling," is how ING economist Tim Condon in Singapore sums up Brunei and its prospects. He says that while he doesn't want to write the Bruneians off entirely, they do appear to be "at last-mover disadvantage" in the region.
Brunei's history dates back to at least the 1300s. For centuries, it ruled vast territories stretching across Southeast Asia. That changed, and by the 1800s the empire declined to but a sliver on the island of Borneo, now shared by Malaysia and Indonesia. In 1929, overseas explorers struck oil, in some measure restoring Brunei to its former glory.
Some officials think tinkering with the oil-only formula is risky, especially after the fantastic flame-out of Prince Jefri, the Sultan's brother, in the 1990s. Jefri, who was the country's finance minister, lost an estimated $15 billion or more on failed investments.
His Majesty was once believed to be the richest person in the world in the 1990s. But as the Bruneian bounty bleeds away, the Sultan is now down to his last $20 billion, according to Forbes magazine, compared with an estimated $30 billion or more in the mid-1990s.
His men are soldiering on. Led by the Brunei Economic Development Board and other officials, they've drafted a multipronged strategy that calls for everything from promoting tourism to building a deep-water port. To lure backpackers and golfers, for instance, they've set up a tourism board and launched an ad slogan -- "The Green Heart of Borneo" -- to tout Brunei's pristine jungle.
Economic development officials have also hit the road, traveling across the world to pitch Brunei to investors in Tokyo and other global financial capitals. They've contacted no fewer than 26 port operators and shipping companies -- and even offered to pay 70% of the cost -- but haven't closed a deal.
Alcoa Inc. has considered locating one of its aluminum smelters here. But the company has many possible ventures in the works. Any final agreement with the sultanate is "way down the pike," says Alcoa spokesman Kevin Lowery.
The country's infrastructure is oddly challenged. An abundance of opulent hotel rooms -- including one replete with gold-thread carpets -- hasn't helped anemic occupancy rates, which hover at about 30%. Road access to a few beaches is limited, forcing some tourists to hack through bushes and brush just to catch a few waves.
Even the sprawling Jerudong amusement park isn't the attraction it once was. The aging park was virtually empty on a recent night; stray cats crisscrossed the grounds and less than a half-dozen rides were open. Every 30 seconds or so, a fake log tumbled down a flume, splashed into the water below and then headed up a make-believe mountain again -- without passengers. Richard Rowswell, a 35-year-old British Navy man was bored with the spectacle -- and sore over the park's lack of booze. "A British person likes to have a beer," he said.
汶莱人担心坐吃山空
汶莱苏丹哈吉?哈桑纳尔?博尔基亚?穆伊扎丁?瓦达乌拉(Haji Hassanal Bolkiah Mu'izzaddin Waddaulah)有件烦心事：石油在这个信奉伊斯兰教的婆罗洲热带岛国至关重要，但石油资源正面临枯竭。
汶莱的大小和美国的特拉华州差不多。多年来该国盛产原油和天然气，在全球石油格局中占据不可忽视的地位。石油开采带来的税收让苏丹王室成为全世界的首富之一，王室宅邸有1,800个房间，仅洗手间就有250个，被公认为世界上最大的房子。在那些令人眩目的装饰品当中，有一个用纯金制成的前臂和手掌，专门给苏丹沉思时托腮帮子用。
苏丹统治下的37万子民生活得也不错。虽然很多人住在看似摇摇欲坠的高脚木屋里，但他们不用付个人所得税，享受免费的医疗保险，经常能上世界上最好的大学－－而且是国家买单。汶莱还为其政府工作人员提供很多优惠政策，包括购买房屋和汽车时的无息贷款等。
“这里的人根本不去想工作的事情，”17岁的扎德?哈尼(Zaed Hani)说道，他长发披肩，和朋友一起坐在T.T. Blues酒吧悠闲地喝著饮料，欣赏夜色。他说政府总是把大家照顾得无微不至。
然而，即使原油价格飙升至每桶60美元以上，许多汶莱人仍担心自己的好日子已经屈指可数。汶莱的石油产量在1979年达到高峰，现在分析师认为该国可能在未来10年内面临产量锐减的问题。去年，汶莱的原油日产量为206,000桶，略低于2003年。
“有人说还有更多的石油资源，”22岁的学生阿布杜尔?扎伊尼迪(Abdul Zainidi)说，他手里拿著一包肯德基(Kentucky)炸鸡坐在一家购物商场门前。“但我们知道这不可能。”
石油和天然气占汶莱出口总量的90%以上。按目前趋势来看，即使最乐观的政府官员也承认，国家无法继续供养每年从当地大学毕业的无所事事的年轻人。汶莱人的年龄中值是27岁，而美国人是36岁。
在今年7月的生日致辞上，汶莱苏丹表示这个国家需要发展多样化经济，并向其臣民保证，政府会致力于吸引更多的外资。经过数年不温不火的尝试，现在苏丹下定决心，派最得力的人员开拓新产业－－如旅游、石化和离岸银行等。
在汶莱，随处可见最新款的宝马汽车和快餐连锁店，包括Dairy Queen冰激□店。在斯里巴加湾市（汶莱首府）的商业区，跨国银行星罗棋布，为当地众多富翁提供服务。不过，让汶莱成为亚洲下一个旅游和工业热点并非易事。
根据伊斯兰法律，汶莱境内不能卖酒，这有些好处。汶莱苏丹既是国王，也是实质上的首相、财政部长和国防部长，他把国家的关键情报牢牢控制在王室范围内。举例而言，汶莱的实际原油储量就是个核心机密，只有政府的秘密投资机构才知道这个国家每个下雨天会冲刷走多少地下原油。
就经济多样化而言，“大家都在谈这事，感觉不错，但实际做成的事情很少。”记者伊格内修斯?史蒂芬(Ignatius Stephen)说道，他最近承接了一个政府资助的运河开挖工程（其支付的成本：1.80美元）。“人们满足现状、不思进取的状态是很难改变的。”
“让人困惑，”这是在新加坡工作的荷兰国际集团(ING)经济学家提姆?康顿(Tim Condon)对汶莱及其前景的描述。他说虽然自己不想完全否定汶莱人的努力，但他们似乎在亚洲地区处于“极端后发劣势”。
汶莱国的历史至少要追溯到西元14世纪。几个世纪来，它曾统治过东南亚的大片版图；但时过境迁，到19世纪，衰败的汶莱帝国仅在汶莱岛上苟延残喘，现在该岛还同时被马来西亚和印尼占有。1929年，外国探险家在这里发现了石油，汶莱也有机会恢复了一些以往的风采。
汶莱一些政府官员认为，发展单一的石油经济有很大风险，20世纪90年代发生的杰弗瑞王子(Prince Jefri)事件足以让人引以为戒。杰弗瑞是苏丹的兄弟，曾任汶莱的财政部长，他的一系列投资给国家造成了估计为150亿美元以上的损失，成为当时的舆论焦点。
在90年代，汶莱苏丹曾被认为是全世界最富有的人。然而，据《福布斯》杂志(Forbes)称，在国家福利支出的影响下，苏丹现在的财富已减至200亿美元，与90年代中期的300亿美元相比缩水不少。
汶莱政府正在励精图治。在汶莱经济发展委员会(Brunei Economic Development Board)和其他官员的领导下，政府官员拟订了多元化发展战略，从发展旅游业到建设深水码头等，不一而足。举例而言，为吸引背包旅行者和高尔夫爱好者，政府成立了一个旅游委员会，并提出了口号－－“绿色心脏在汶莱”－－以宣传汶莱原始气息浓厚的丛林风光。
负责经济发展的官员也踏上征途，在东京等国际金融中心向投资者宣传汶莱。他们联系了不下26家码头运营商和海运公司－－甚至提出可承担70%的建设成本－－但还未达成任何协定。
美国铝业公司(Alcoa Inc.)想在汶莱建一家熔铝厂，但这只是公司众多考虑中的项目之一，目前离签署合同“还远得很”，美国铝业的发言人凯文?劳瑞(Kevin Lowery)说道。
汶莱的基础建设非常薄弱。虽然豪华饭店众多－－其中有一家甚至铺满金丝织就的地毯－－但入住率都很低，只有30%左右。通往海岸的道路就几条，导致一些游客为看一眼海浪不得不披荆斩棘地在丛林中穿行。
甚至于规模庞大的耶路冬游乐园(Jerudong amusement park)人气也大不如前。在最近的一个晚上，这家公园几乎空无一人，只有野猫在路上窜来窜去。娱乐项目只开放了不到一半，每过半分钟，“激流勇进”游乐项目会有一艘船从高处冲下，溅起高高的水花－－但船里没有人。35岁的英国海军理查德?罗斯威尔(Richard Rowswell)看腻了这种场景－－并对公园里没有酒卖大发牢骚。“英国人喜欢来点啤酒，”他抱怨道。
