Meeker Makes Call On Diciest Sector: China Web Stocks
A year ago, Mary Meeker made her case for investing in China. This week she is putting her name on the line, picking individual stocks in this often-volatile corner of the investment world.
The Morgan Stanley stock analyst, who rose to notoriety in the 1990s with her bullish calls on Internet shares, yesterday released a 118-plus page report titled "China Internet," and along with fellow analyst Richard Ji launched coverage on seven China-based Internet stocks, six of which are listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
Ms. Meeker's decision to begin picking individual stocks comes at a time of intense interest in China and its exploding economy -- and Internet sector. As well, in recent months domestic investors have increasingly been looking outside the U.S. to countries like China for bigger returns.
But investing in China hasn't worked out as well as headlines about its booming economy might suggest. If anything, Ms. Meeker's call of one year ago looks early. Mainland China stock markets haven't done well for years but have rebounded sharply since the country revalued its currency in July. Some Chinese stocks listed in North America have held up well, like online gamer Netease.com Inc., one of Ms. Meeker's top picks.
"The reality is that analysts need to take risk and think out of the box," she said of her decision to initiate coverage of China Internet stocks. "And some of that has been lost over the past few years."
Ms. Meeker, who leaves for China today to market the report, was dubbed "Queen of the 'Net" in the 1990s and had a following among investors looking to cash in on the craze. But like a number of other analysts who covered the tech sector, she suffered a fall from grace in early 2000 when the bubble burst. Investors, who had poured billions of dollars in the sector, turned their ire toward bullish stock analysts like Ms. Meeker who touted the stocks.
In 2003, 10 firms, including Morgan Stanley, were fined $1.4 billion by securities regulators for their behavior. Many firms have cut back their stock-research efforts and the days of the celebrity analyst, like Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Henry Blodget, who lost his job in this period and is banned from the securities industry, are all but over.
But unlike Mr. Blodget, Ms. Meeker wasn't charged with any securities-laws violations and has thrived in recent years. Today she is still one of the best-known analysts on Wall Street. In addition to the China-based firms, she covers 12 other companies, including some of the U.S.'s best-known stocks, like Microsoft Corp., eBay Inc. and Google Inc. Microsoft is up 10% and Google is up 190% in the past year, while eBay has fallen about 14% in that period. All three companies are investment-banking clients of Morgan Stanley.
She is also an active player inside Morgan Stanley. Earlier this year, during the shareholder revolt against now former Chief Executive Philip Purcell, she was one of a handful of people to sign a letter urging senior management to safeguard the firm's culture and values. Perhaps in a nod to her longevity, she has her cellphone set to ring to Earth, Wind & Fire's 1975 hit "Shining Star."
Roy Smith, a professor of finance at New York University and a former partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., hopes investors and Ms. Meeker are wiser for the lessons of the implosion of Internet stocks in 2000. He adds that Ms. Meeker's experience will serve her well in covering Chinese Internet stocks, an uncharted area.
Marc Klee, a technology investor at American Fund Advisors, has followed Ms. Meeker's work for years. He says that while he treats all research with some skepticism, he values Ms. Meeker's view in part because she has been around for a long time -- since 1989 -- and lived through market ups and downs.
This time, Ms. Meeker's work is tempered with risk factors, which some critics say was lacking in some of her earlier work. "These companies are volatile and have risks associated with them," she says. While Ms. Meeker is following the stocks, Mr. Ji will be responsible for the day-to-day coverage.
Overall, Mr. Ji and Ms. Meeker have an "attractive" rating on the entire China Internet sector, which means they believe the sector will outperform the market. Within this rating, three of the seven stocks the two are covering -- travel firm Ctrip.com International Ltd., online gamer Netease.com and instant-messaging provider Tencent Holdings Ltd. -- have "overweight" ratings, the equivalent of a "buy" and the highest rating they have given. The remaining four stocks are rated "equal weight," firm lingo for investors to hold the stock. There are no "sell" ratings on any of the stocks they cover. Three of the companies the duo is covering -- Sina Corp., 51job Inc. and TOM Online Inc. -- were taken public by Morgan Stanley, according to data provider Thomson Financial.
China Internet companies trade at 40% to 60% discounts to their global counterparts, as the industry is still in its infancy. But according to Lionshares.com, which tracks ownership, already a number of the investors in these firms are U.S. institutions.
“网络皇后”寄情中国互联网类股
一年前，玛丽?米克(Mary Meeker)就开始宣扬投资中国的种种好处。本周她公布了一份研究报告，为敢于在起伏不定的中国股票上进行投资的人们推荐她心目中的潜力股。
这位摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的股票分析师周一公布了一份长达118页的研究报告。在这份题为“中国互联网”(China Internet)的报告中，米克和另一位分析师Richard Ji对7只中国互联网股票进行了剖析，它们中有六只都是在美国那斯达克市场上市的股票。在上个世纪90年代，米克对互联网类股的乐观评价曾让她声名远扬。
米克这份报告的出炉正值中国经济增长备受瞩目、同时互联网类股炙手可热之际。而近几个月来，美国国内的投资者也越来越多地将目光投向中国等其他国家，以求获得更高的回报。
不过，投资中国并非像它的经济增长消息那样激动人心。其实米克一年前就建议大家投资中国股票似乎有些操之过急。中国大陆的股票市场多年来一直萎靡不振，不过在人民币汇率改革之后已大幅反弹。部分在北美市场上市的中国公司股票表现也不俗，比如像网络游戏运营商网易公司(Netease.com Inc.)，该股亦是米克的最爱。
“事实上，分析师必须敢于冒险，突破传统的思维方式。”她在谈及她决定开始研究中国互联网股票时这样说道。“在过去的几年中，一些分析师失去了这样的品质。”
米克周二前往中国宣传她的这份报告。她在上个世纪90年代曾被誉为“网络皇后”，在互联网鼎盛时期，不少投资者都追随在她身后。然而，和许多其他研究科技类股的分析师一样，2000年初随著网络泡沫的破灭，她的地位也一落千丈。那些将大笔资金投入科技类股的投资者纷纷将矛头指向像米克这样为科技类股摇旗呐喊的分析师。
2003年，包括摩根士丹利在内的10家公司因它们的行为被证券监管机构罚款14亿美元。许多公司因此收缩了股票研究业务，有不少明星分析师就是在这一时期丢掉了饭碗，如美林公司(Merrill Lynch & Co.)的亨利?布洛吉特(Henry Blodget)，他还被禁止进入证券行业。明星分析师的时代几乎就要结束。
然而与布洛吉特不同，米克没有受到任何违反证券法的指控，而且近年来还颇为活跃，直到现在她依然是华尔街最著名的分析师。除了上述中国公司外，她还分析了其他12家公司，包括微软公司(Microsoft Corp.)、eBay Inc.和Google Inc。在过去的一年中，微软股价上涨了10%，Google上涨了190%，而eBay则是下跌了14%。这三家公司均为摩根士丹利投资银行业务的客户。
米克在摩根士丹利公司内部也是一名活跃分子。在今年年初公司股东要求罢免首席执行长裴熙亮(Philip Purcell)的时候，她是少数几个联名写信给高层、要求捍卫公司文化和价值的人士之一。也许是出于对自己资历的肯定，米克将手机铃声设成Earth, Wind & Fire乐队1975年演唱的热门歌曲“闪耀的明星”(Shining Star)。
罗伊?史密斯(Roy Smith)是纽约大学(New York University)金融学教授，曾是高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)的合伙人，他希望投资者和米克都能吸取2000年互联网泡沫破灭的教训。他同时表示，米克的经验将有助于她对中国互联网类股的研究。
American Fund Advisors的科技行业投资者马克?克莱(Marc Klee)追随米克的研究报告已有多年时间，他表示，虽然他对所有的研究报告都抱有某些怀疑的态度，但他十分看重米克的观点，其中部分原因就是她从事这一领域的研究已经很长时间（从1989年开始），并且经受住了市场起起伏伏的考验。
而在这份研究报告中，米克加入了风险因素分析，部分评论人士称这在她之前的一些报告中是没有的。“这些公司波动性大，具有一定的投资风险。”她这样说道。在米克研究这些股票的同时，Ji将负责跟踪它们的日常表现。
总体而言，Ji和米克对整个中国互联网类股的评级是“具吸引力”，这表明他们认为该类股的表现将强于大盘。在这一评级下，7只股票中的3只获得他们给出的最高评级“增持”，它们是：旅游公司携程旅行网(Ctrip.com International Ltd. (CTRP))、网易、网络寻呼服务提供商腾讯控股有限公司(Tencent Holdings Ltd. 简称：腾讯控股)，这一评级相当于“买进”。其余4只股票为“持有”。据Thomson Financial称，其中3家公司：新浪网(Sina.Com)、前程无忧(51job Inc.)和TOM在线有限公司(Tom Online Inc., 简称：TOM在线)的上市承销商均为摩根士丹利。
由于中国互联网行业仍处于起步阶段，互联网公司的股价比起其他全球同行要低40%至60%。不过据研究股票持有者的Lionshares.com称，这些公司的许多投资者正是美国的一些机构。
