Investors go to the pollsters as share movements seem a matter of opinion
Investment Correspondent
The public reputation of a listed company and its future share price movement are directly linked, according to research by MORI, the polling company.
MORI tracked the “favourability” rating of five companies, including Tesco and Vodafone, and found that changes in customer satisfaction led to corresponding moves in company share performance typically three to 12 months later.
Institutional investors are increasingly trading on the connection and are trying to take advantage of this time lag by commissioning their own private polling data.
Fund managers are no longer relying on traditional sell-side research covering sectors such as retailing, which are particularly sensitive to public opinion, and are instead commissioning so-called “primary” research in the belief that changing customer perceptions affect future share price performance.
MORI said hedge fund clients frequently used its data to “short” particular stocks.
The Financial Times reported in March that Scottish Widows Investment Partnership sold most of its four per cent stake in William Morrison after polling of former Safeway customers showed that many switched to rival supermarkets following the takeover by the Yorkshire-based group. Morrison shares collapsed over the following months.
MORI tracked the changing levels of customer favourability displayed towards Tesco, J Sainsbury, Vodafone, British Airways and Marks and Spencer. The pollster said Tesco's rating peaked at 72 and was followed by a share price spike over the following year. However, Tesco's rating has dipped over the past six months, signalling possible share price stagnation. Likewise, the changing ratings of Vodafone and British Airways have corresponded with each company's subsequent share price performance. Pollsters are assessing the effect on British Airways' ratings following the Heathrow catering disputes.
Waheed Aslam, MORI development director, said: “Investors believe in the link and increasingly want private data that add value to their investment decisions. They do not want information that their rivals can obtain.”
He said MORI would study whether there was as strong a favourability/price performance link in other sectors such as energy, banking and technology.
“上市企业声誉与其股价有直接关系”
据民调公司MORI的研究称，上市公司的公共声誉与其未来股价有直接关系。
MORI追踪了5家公司的“受欢迎程度”评级，其中包括特易购(Tesco)和沃达丰(Vodafone)，发现顾客满意度的变化导致公司股票业绩一般在3至12个月后出现相应走势。
机构投资者目前日益根据这一关联来进行交易，并试图通过委托自己的私下民调获得数据，以利用这一时滞获利。
