China Plays Down Talk Speculating Further Yuan Rise
SHANGHAI -- China is using rhetoric and financial tools to deflate market speculation -- and U.S. expectations -- that its currency will rise in value again in the near term, following last week's small revaluation in the yuan.
But U.S. officials kept up their drumbeat for further upward revaluations. The Treasury Department's envoy to China on the currency issue, Olin Wethington, returned to Beijing over the weekend to convey again U.S. expectations of further adjustments. Treasury officials say that part of the mission -- Mr. Wethington's fourth since late May -- will be to gain a better understanding of what the Chinese have done and how they plan to proceed over the short term. Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reinforced expectations of more adjustments last week.
Beyond that, according to one U.S. official, Mr. Wethington will tell the Chinese that "there should be no miscalculation or misunderstanding that people expect that over time they will give full play to the market. The market quality of this is of central concern."
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan reinforced expectations of more adjustments. Speaking last week, they and other foreigners who had pushed China to revalue the yuan framed the exchange-rate move as an initial adjustment. "It is certainly a good first step," Mr. Greenspan said.
But the Chinese central bank issued a sharply worded statement yesterday stressing that the revaluation "does not mean" further adjustments in the exchange rate. During the weekend, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank's governor, said he has the wherewithal to resist upward pressure on the yuan and that "gradualism" will guide further currency changes. Backing up those statements have been little-noticed, technical adjustments by the central bank meant to damp enthusiasm for the yuan.
President Hu Jintao also weighed in yesterday, pledging in a speech to maintain "our stable fiscal and monetary policy," China state TV reported. It was his first official comment since the yuan revaluation.
Still, investment-bank analysts have been arguing that the 2.1% rise in China's currency against the U.S. dollar was only a taste of the strength they think the central bank will tolerate this year. International investors remain inclined toward buying the yuan, which also is known as the renminbi, because the change so far is unlikely to alter existing trade and investment flows much. Such thinking is evident in derivatives markets, where foreign investment banks bet on the yuan, and where prices now indicate expectations of several more percentage points of upside for the currency in the months ahead.
Chinese individuals and small-business owners also expressed confidence. Many in China began positioning for possible yuan revaluation months ago by selling dollars in exchange for yuan. Shanghai advertising-business owner Guo Erxin says he converts all payments from his South Korean and Japanese clients immediately into yuan. "I'm confident the renminbi will be a strong currency for the future," Mr. Guo says.
The central bank has gone on the offensive to play down such expectations, complaining in a statement posted on its Web site yesterday that unnamed foreign media had "created misunderstanding" about the change and had "mistakenly" suggested expectations of a near-term rise. It said gradualism refers to the overall exchange-rate system, "rather than gradualism in adjusting the yuan exchange-rate level."
Mr. Zhou, the central-bank governor, backed up a speech last Saturday with Chinese media interviews in which he characterized last week's currency changes as being a "sponge" that allows him to painlessly absorb pressure from speculators.
Beyond talk, the central bank has made the series of technical interest-rate adjustments. Bankers said the adjustments were smart moves to shave back the appeal of holding yuan.
For instance, the day after the revaluation was announced, the central bank bumped up interest rates that Chinese banks can offer on U.S. dollar and Hong Kong dollar deposits. The boost of one half percentage point pushed to 1.625% the rate on one-year U.S. dollar deposits and to 1.5% the rate on Hong Kong dollar deposits. Higher rates make holding those currencies more attractive than before, although yuan deposits continue to earn 2.25%.
Yesterday, meanwhile, the central bank sold domestic banks about $1.2 billion in short-term debt instruments in a regularly scheduled auction but at a record-low interest rate. It was another signal that could lessen demand for yuan by banks. The one-year central bank bills sold yesterday will yield 1.3605%, down from 1.4199% a week before.
Shanghai's yuan currency market itself has shown only minor movement in the three sessions since last week's revaluation. The U.S. dollar finished Shanghai trading at 8.1099 yuan yesterday, strengthening from 8.1097 yuan in the previous session and holding gains since the initial postrevaluation rate of 8.11 yuan.
Money broker Prebon Yamane was quoting offshore derivatives markets yesterday as forecasting the U.S. dollar will slide to 7.7450 yuan within a year. That represents market expectations of a further 4.8% rise in the yuan, compared with yesterday's closing rate in Shanghai.
"You can't be dictated by these speculators," said a senior Asian monetary source over the weekend. The person, who is in contact with Chinese authorities, added that speculation of a near-term rise in the yuan is the product of foreign investment banks trying to "create business for themselves."
中国竭力化解对人民币将进一步升值的揣测
中国运用了言论及金融工具来化解市场的猜测──上周四小幅升值后，人民币汇率会在近期内再次上调。此举也给期待人民币进一步升值的美国政府泼了一盆冷水。
但美国政府仍在向中国政府施压，要求人民币进一步升值。美国财政部派往中国的外汇问题特使奥林?韦辛顿(Olin Wethington)上周末再次来到北京，这更加剧了人民币汇率将进一步调整的预期。这是韦辛顿自5月下旬以来第四次造访北京。财政部官员透露说，韦辛顿此行的部分使命是为了进一步了解中国的汇率改革以及中国政府准备在近期内如何推进改革。
据一位美国官员透露，除此之外，韦辛顿还会向中国政府传递这样一个信息：假以时日，汇率最终完全要由市场说了算，不要错误地估计或误解这一点；而汇率的市场化是美国关注的一个核心问题。
美国财政部长斯诺(John Snow)以及美国联邦储备委员会主席格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)的讲话也强化了中国将进一步调整人民币汇率的预期。斯诺和格里斯潘以及其他敦促人民币升值的人士都把上周四的调整看作是人民币汇率改革的第一步。用格林斯潘的话说就是，“这显然是一个良好的开端。”
但中国央行周二发表了一个措词强硬的声明，强调说人民币重估并不意味著汇率的进一步调整。中国央行行长周小川在上周末表示，他拥有抵御人民币升值压力的充裕资金，今后的汇率调整将遵循“循序渐进”的原则。作为对上述言论的支持，中国央行还采取了一系列不引人注意的技术性调整，旨在削弱持有人民币的魅力。
另据中国国家电视台报道，中国国家主席胡锦涛周二也在讲话中表示，中国要保持稳定的财政及货币政策。这是胡锦涛自人民币重估以来首次发表正式讲话。
不过，投资银行的分析师一直认为，2.1%的升值幅度只不过是中国央行今年可以忍受的升值幅度的一部分而已。国际投资者仍然倾向于买进人民币，因为目前为止的调整不大可能显著改变在贸易和投资方面的资金流向。这一点在衍生品市场上已得到清晰展现，从衍生产品的价格走势中可以看出，市场现在认为人民币还会在未来几个月内进一步升值几个百分点。
中国居民和小企业业主也流露出了对人民币的信心。由于预见到人民币可能升值，许多中国人在数月之前就开始把美元转换为人民币。上海一家广告公司的老板郭尔辛（音译）表示，韩国和日本客户支付的帐款刚一到账，他就立即把外币兑换成了人民币。他深信，未来人民币将成为强势货币。
中国央行正在积极主动地化解认为人民币会进一步升值的预期。中国央行周二在其网站上刊载了一则声明，不点名提到了某外国媒体错误地理解了中国的外汇体制改革，并且错误地暗示人民币可能会在近期内进一步升值。声明表示，渐进性是指人民币汇率形成机制改革的渐进性，而不是指人民币汇率水平调整的渐进性。
周小川上周六在接受中国媒体的采访时把新的外汇体制比喻为海绵垫子，可以在自身完好无损的情况下吸收来自投机分子的压力。
除了动用舆论工具之外，中国央行还对利率作了一系列技术性调整。银行家们表示，这些调整是聪明的举动，可以削弱持有人民币的吸引力。
例如，在人民币重估后的第二天，中国银行业就提高了美元和港元的存款利率。1年期美元存款利率上调了0.5%，至1.625%；1年期港元存款利率上调了0.5%，至1.5%。由于1年期人民币存款利率仍为2.25%，这就使得持有这些外币比以前更具吸引力。
与此同时，昨天中国央行还在例行的拍卖中以创下历史新低的利率发行了约12亿美元的短期债券，这是表明银行业对人民币的需求降低的又一迹象。昨日发行的一年期央行票据的收益率为1.3605%，而一周前为1.4199%。
上周四人民币重估后的连续三个交易日里，上海外汇市场始终走势稳定，变化不大。昨日美元收盘时兑人民币8.1099元，高于前一交易日收盘时的8.1097元，自中国央行将人民币兑美元汇率的基准价定为1美元兑8.11元后，美元兑人民币的汇率一直在稳步攀升。
从场外交易经纪行万邦有利(Prebon Yamane)昨天对海外衍生品市场的报价中可以看出，市场认为美元兑人民币的汇率将在1年之内跌至7.7450元。这意味著市场认为，以上海市场收盘价计算，人民币还有4.8%的升值幅度。
据一位与中国政府有接触的亚洲货币政策权威人士上周末表示，衍生品的市场走势不可信。该人士表示，散播人民币在近期内会进一步升值的传闻是因为外国投资银行希望能从中觅得商机。
