Taiwan must build bridges to China
Amid great media hoopla surrounding the visits of two top Taiwanese opposition leaders to mainland China in recent weeks a simple truth has been forgotten. It took both leaders, Lien Chan and James Soong, the better part of a working day to complete a journey that could have been managed in just a couple of hours had they flown directly from Taipei to their mainland destinations. The continuing ban on direct flights across the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and the mainland takes its greatest toll on Taiwanese working on the mainland who are forced to take a circuitous route through Hong Kong or Macau whenever they need to travel to or from home. The result: Taiwan is suffering a brain drain as talent moves to where the best opportunities are. And that is not the only thing leaking out of Taiwan. Official restrictions on the free flow of capital to the mainland have, ironically, had their greatest impact in discouraging Taiwanese businesses from repatriating profits and capital. Money finds its way out of Taiwan to the mainland but then does not return. This double whammy of capital and brain drains is rare in the annals of modern economic history. On the one hand, Taiwan is perched at the edge of the world's most dynamic and promising economy. But on the other, restrictions on the movement of people and capital have created a relationship where key engines of growth are flowing mostly in one direction. In a broad sense, the shift in manufacturing operations and jobs from Taiwan to low-cost mainland China is an example of a well-understood phenomenon that has already appeared in many advanced economies. Hong Kong, for example, endured a dramatic loss of manufacturing operations in the 1980s as companies moved to Guangdong province to take advantage of a cheap, abundant and generally well-educated labour pool.
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Yet Hong Kong has since focused on providing logistical support and financial services for mainland China. After its manufacturing base declined, America upgraded, diversified and honed its expertise in a broad range of service-focused industries. Taiwan has struggled to make a similar transition. For mainly political reasons, Taiwan does not allow capital to flow freely between it and mainland China. Capital controls have meant that Taiwan's investment in the mainland has yielded little direct benefit, even when the Taiwanese investors were successful. This partly reflects the fact that many Taiwanese businesses have ignored prohibitions against investing in China. But capital is relatively free once it is offshore, and it does not make sense to repatriate capital back to Taiwan where it would again be subjected to policy restrictions. The result is that Taiwan has been experiencing a serious capital drain, with the consequence that its own economy is suffering from underinvestment and a lack of renewal.
The movement of people between Taiwan and the mainland is restricted too. There are no direct air or sea links from Taiwan to China. Business meetings that could be conducted in the course of a daily commute from Taiwan to the mainland instead require an extended trip. The strains that such inconvenience puts on Taiwanese society in terms of men who essentially develop two lives and sometimes two families at home and in mainland China are well-documented. Another consequence is that a sizeable Taiwanese population has grown up in mainland China about 1m according to some estimates. In Shanghai, one part of the city is known as Little Taiwan, with education, services, newspapers, restaurants and retailing that caters specifically to Taiwanese, making the city more attractive as a second home.
Less appreciated is the hollowing-out that has occurred in Taiwan's talent base as the island's best business and engineering minds go to mainland China. Young talent often sees more opportunity on the other side of the Strait, and is more willing to move and stay on the mainland. Taiwan aspires to be a regional centre for multinational corporations. This is unlikely to happen without direct travel to the mainland, an increasingly important market for almost all international companies. For Taiwan's own good, it needs to remove restrictions on investment in the mainland, capital flows to and from the mainland, and direct transportation of people and goods. More economic integration across the Strait is inevitable, and it cannot be reversed (and should not be) without great cost to Taiwan. Recognising this will point the way forward for Taiwan's policymakers.
The writer is a partner of Newbridge Capital, a private equity firm
台湾资金人才流失大陆
最近几周，台湾在野党两位高层领导人先后访问中国大陆。在围绕此事件的媒体报道中，人们忘记了一个简单事实：此番行程整整耗费了连战和宋楚瑜两位主席大半天的时间，而若能从台北直飞大陆的话，则只需几小时。
一直以来，台湾海峡两岸间的直飞禁令给在大陆工作的台湾人带来了极大不便――每次往返两地时都不得不绕道香港或澳门。结果是：随着人才转移到最具发展机遇的地方，台湾正面临着人才流失的局面。
而且损失还不仅于此。具有讽刺意味的是，台湾官方对资金自由流入大陆加以限制，这反而对台湾商人产生极大影响，使他们不愿把所得利润和资金再带回台湾。资金从台湾流入大陆，却不再返回。
在现代经济史上，遭遇这种资金和人才的双重流失是很罕见的。一方面，台湾紧邻世界上最具活力和前途的经济体；而另一方面，对人员和资金流动的限制造成了一种局面：主要发展动力大多呈单向流动。
从广义上看，制造产业和工作职位从台湾转向低成本的大陆，这一现象完全可以理解，并且已出现在许多先进的经济体中。例如，20世纪80年代，香港的制造业就曾遭受过重大损失：许多公司搬到了广东省，因为那里有廉价而充足的劳动力资源，并且普遍受过良好教育。不过，从那以后，香港一直将重点放在为中国大陆提供物流支持和金融服务。
在美国，继制造业呈下滑趋势后，许多服务性行业的专业技能都得到了更新、多样化和精炼。台湾也曾争取做出相似的过渡。而主要出于政治原因，台湾不允许资金在本土和大陆之间自由流通。资金控制意味着：即使台湾投资商获得成功，台湾在大陆投资所产生的直接利益也是微乎其微。这也部分解释了为什么许多台湾商人会无视这一禁令，在大陆直接投资。但是，资金一旦离开台湾就会自由得多，所以没有理由再把资金返回台湾，重新受到政策约束。结果是：台湾一直处于严重的资金流失状态，导致本土经济投资不足、缺乏补充资金。
两岸之间的人员流动也受到了限制。从台湾到大陆没有直接的空中或海上交通，因此，从台湾到大陆，原本可以一日完成的商务会议，需要几天时间才能完成。这种不便给台湾社会带来很大重负：一些男人在大陆和台湾过着两种生活，甚至成立两个家庭，类似报道屡见不鲜。同时出现的还有另一种情况：据估计，在大陆的台湾人数量已经达到了约100万。上海有一个地方被称作“小台湾”，那里的教育、服务、报纸、餐厅和零售业都特别迎合台湾人需要，这使得上海变得像是台湾人的第二个家园，因而更具吸引力。
然而，人们没有充分意识到的是，随着最好的商业及工程人员来到大陆，台湾人才库出现了“空洞”。年轻人才往往发现大陆有更多机会，也更愿意前往并且留在大陆。台湾立志成为各跨国公司的区域中心。
但是，如果没有连接大陆的直接交通，要实现这一点则不太可能。因为对几乎所有国际公司而言，大陆这一市场正变得越来越重要。出于自身发展考虑，台湾需要解除以下三方面的限制，即对大陆投资、与大陆资金流通以及人员和货物的直通。两岸间进一步实现经济一体化是必然趋势，反其道而行(也不应该如此)会给台湾造成重大损失。意识到这一点将给台湾决策者指明前进的方向。
