Real wages fall at fastest rate in 14 years
Real wages in the US are falling at their fastest rate in 14 years, according to data surveyed by the Financial Times.
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Inflation rose 3.1 per cent in the year to March but salaries climbed just 2.4 per cent, according to the Employment Cost Index. In the final three months of 2004, real wages fell by 0.9 per cent.
The last time salaries fell this steeply was at the start of 1991, when real wages declined by 1.1 per cent.
Stingy pay rises mean many Americans will have to work longer hours to keep up with the cost of living, and they could ultimately undermine consumer spending and economic growth.
Many economists believe that in spite of the unexpectedly large rise in job creation of 274,000 in April, the uneven revival in the labour market since the 2001 recession has made it hard for workers to negotiate real improvements in living standards.
Even after last month's bumper gain in employment, there are 22,000 fewer private sector jobs than when the recession began in March 2001, a 0.02 per cent fall. At the same point in the recovery from the recession of the early 1990s, private sector employment was up 4.7 per cent.
“There is still little evidence that workers are gaining much traction in their negotiations,” said Paul Ashworth, US analyst at Capital Economics, the consultancy. “If this does not pick up, it raises the prospect of a sharper slowdown in consumer spending than we have been expecting.”
Economists are divided over the best source for measuring pay increases in the US, since the government releases three main measures.
A gauge of average hourly earnings is released with the employment report. This rose by 0.3 per cent in both March and April and 0.1 per cent in February. Even with a slight rise in the hours employees are working, from 33.7 to 33.9, this suggests wages are struggling to keep pace with inflation. The gauge covers non-supervisory workers, about 80 per cent of the workforce.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis figures for personal income showed wages rising at close to 6 per cent in 2004 but slowing down since. This measure also showed wages rising by just 0.3 per cent in each of the past 2 months. This is a broader gauge and includes small businesses and professional partnerships, but it measures total corporate wage bill rather than wages per person.
The Employment Cost Index, seen by some as the most reliable measure, excludes overtime and professional partnerships
美国实际工资以14年最快速度缩水
《金融时报》调查得出的数据表明，美国的实际工资正以14年来最快的速度下降。
根据企业雇用成本指数(Employment Cost Index)，在截至3月的年度，通货膨胀上升了3.1%，但工资增幅仅为2.4%。在2004年的最后3个月里，实际工资下降了0.9%。
上次工资出现如此大的跌幅是在1991年初，当时实际工资下降了1.1%。
工资涨幅不足，意味着许多美国人将被迫工作更长时间，以赶上生活成本的上涨步伐，而且这样的工资上涨最终可能对消费者支出和经济增长造成破坏。
许多经济学家认为，尽管4月新增职位意外大幅增加至27.4万个，但自2001年经济衰退以来劳动力市场不平坦的复苏道路，已使工人难以通过谈判改善实际生活水准。
即使在上个月就业岗位大大增加之后，私人部门的就业岗位仍比2001年3月衰退开始时少2.2万个，降幅为0.02%。在90年代初衰退后复苏过程中的相同时期，私人部门的就业增长了4.7%。
“迄今仍极少有证据表明工人们在谈判中获得多少有利地位，”咨询公司资本经济(Capital Economics)美国经济分析师保罗?阿什沃思(Paul Ashworth)说，“如果这一状况不改善，那么消费者支出大幅滑落的前景就会比我们预期的还要严重。”
由于美国政府公布三个主要测量数据，因此经济学家们对于衡量美国工资增幅的最佳资料来源意见不一。
