Dogged survivor of the dotcom bubble keeps its head above water
In the early 1990s, management guru Peter Drucker proclaimed that the internet would revolutionise learning, with virtual universities eclipsing brick and mortar institutions.
In the context of the internet euphoria of the time, it was easy to buy into his vision. But, the bursting of the dotcom bubble has led to a reality check. Mr Drucker’s bold vision now looks fuzzy indeed, as many online education ventures are nursing burnt fingers.
In recent years, several attempts have been made to mount online higher education on a global scale led by universities, private groups and consortia supported by governments. But, the result has been disappointing.
Many e-learning ventures have failed, while the survivors are just limping along.
Britain’s vaunted e-university, UKeU, suffered a quick demise after its launch in 2000 at the height of the technology boom.
Unable to meet its student target UKeU, which had government funding of ￡62m, had to close its doors in April last year. Across the Atlantic, online universities suffered a similar fate.
New York University sank $20m into NYU online, a for-profit e-learning company, while Columbia University launched Fathom in spring 2000 in collaboration with 14 universities, libraries and museums, including the London School of Economics and the British Museum.
Columbia put up most of the initial $20m, which was followed the next year with another $20m. Fathom went under in January 2003.
Other unsuccessful ventures included: the virtual Cardean University; an e-learning company at Cornell; a joint project by the Wharton business school at the University of Pennsylvania and a company called Caliber, which went bankrupt; and Temple University, which closed its “for-profit” company without offering a single course.
Among the few left still standing, albeit precariously, is Universitas 21 Global, launched in September 2000 with headquarters in Singapore as a S$90m joint venture between Universitas 21, Thomson Learning - a US-based educational publisher - and a global consortium of 16 universities, including Birmingham and Nottingham in the UK, McGill in Montreal, Canada, and the University of Hong Kong.
Universitas 21 Global wants to tap into the vast market for higher education, particularly in Asia. It aims to break away from the elitist model of higher education by making tertiary education accessible to more people.
So far only an MBA is on offer, with plans to roll out a masters in travel and tourism and information systems this year. It managed to recruit about 600 students last year, and aims to double the head count this year.
Simon Marginson, director of Monash University’s centre for research in international education and an expert in online learning, is surprised U21 still exists.
In a research paper released last year, he says the group is still missing its intake targets, with student numbers being boosted by a variety of means, such as steep discounts to affiliated members and through scholarships.
He thinks that the online mode of higher education hasn’t failed as such. It is still growing as part of the mixed delivery modes of traditional institutions.
However, he says: “Given the resources absorbed and expectations created; given the hopes the nations and universities invested in commercial online education, as the major new direction for higher education, the industry’s failure is catastrophic.”
Mukesh Aghi, chief executive officer at Universitas 21 Global, acknowledging the rnumber of online failures, says it is hard to market a product that is still viewed with scepticism.
“The way I see it, education is a reference-based market. I admit it’s not an easy sell when you’re still not a known brand. You have to approach potential customers. I think we got the foundation right by offering valuable education that’s widely accessible. Our students have access to topnotch professors and a global networking pool.”
The next few years will be critical for the university. It has to attract 2,500 students by 2007 to break even. Mr Aghi says, the shareholders and the universities involved remain committed to U21 for the long-term.
“At the moment, based on our financial and revenue prescriptive, I am pleased we’re still afloat.” The institute is still targeting the huge markets of India and China.
For virtual learning to take off globally, Mr Aghi thinks there has to a mass shift in mind-set in seeing online degrees as second rate to face-to-face learning.
He points to the commercial success of University of Phoenix, with 150,000 students at campuses across the US and online, where the virtual university model has worked. He believes online education has to emulate a classroom environment in order to succceed.
While the jury is still out on U21, the market will judge the value of its degree when the first batch of its students graduates this August.
Eagerly awaiting the day, Mr Aghi notes: “I think we have it, but I guess the market is going to decide it for us. As they say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.”
“虚拟大学”还有市场吗？
90年代初，管理大师彼得?德鲁克(Peter Drucker)宣布，互联网将使教育发生根本革命，虚拟大学将令“砖瓦水泥”的大学黯然失色。
在当时互联网如火如荼的背景下，人们会很容易认同他的构想，但网络泡沫的破灭让我们重新审视现实。许多在线教育机构已是惨淡收场，德鲁克先生的大胆设想现在看来其实相当模糊。
最近几年内，受到政府支持的大学、私人集团和国际财团多次尝试在全球范围内推广在线高等教育，但结果令人失望。
许多网上教育项目皆以失败告终，幸存者也都步履蹒跚，发展迟缓。
英国全球网络大学( UkeU)成立于2000年，当时正值科技热的高潮。这个曾经风光无限的网络大学不幸夭折。
政府资助该校6200万英镑，但由于无法达到招生目标，UkeU不得不于去年4月关门大吉。在整个大西洋沿岸，在线大学难逃相似的厄运。
纽约大学向一家盈利性在线教育公司纽约大学在线(NYU online)注资2000万美元；2000年春，哥伦比亚大学与伦敦经济学院、大英博物馆等14个大学、图书馆和博物馆共同创办了Fathom。
哥伦比亚大学在2000万美元的最初投资中占据了绝大部分，次年又追加投资2000万美元。2003年1月，Fathom关门。
其它不成功的网络教育机构还包括虚拟的卡丁大学(Cardean University)，康奈尔大学旗下的一家在线教育公司，宾夕法尼亚州的沃顿商学院和已宣告破产的Caliber公司的一个合作项目，加上坦普尔大学(Temple University)关闭了旗下一家尚未开设一门课程的“盈利性”公司。
仍有极少数公司幸存下来――虽然有些摇摇欲坠，其中包括U21联合国际在线大学(Universititas 21 Global)。U21于2000年9月成立，总部设在新加坡，由总部位于美国的汤姆森学习出版集团(Thomson Learning)和一个由16所大学组成的全球联合组织合资打造，投资总额为9000万新加坡元。这16所大学包括英国的伯明翰大学(Birmingham)、诺丁汉大学(Nottingham)、加拿大蒙特利尔的麦吉尔大学(McGill)和香港大学。
U21希望进军广阔的高等教育市场，特别是亚洲。它旨在通过普及高等教育的做法，来打破过去只有少数人享受高等教育的模式。
到目前为止，U21仅提供MBA课程，但计划于今年推出旅游和信息系统的硕士课程。U21去年已招收新生600名，今年的目标是使学生总数翻一番。
莫纳什大学国际教育研究中心主任(Monash University)西蒙?马金森(Simon Marginson)也是网络教育的专家，他对U21仍然幸存表示惊讶。
他在去年发表的一份研究报告中表示，该集团仍未达到其招生目标，学生人数的增长是依靠各种各样的手段，例如给予合作大学学生超低的折扣以及发放奖学金。
他认为，网络高等教育的模式本身并未失败。现在，它仍在继续发展着，与传统教育模式并存。
但他表示：“从网络教育投入的资源和产生的期望值来看，从各国、各大学对商业网络教学寄予的厚望来看，作为高等教育未来主要的发展新方向，网络教育的失败是灾难性的。”
U21首席执行官缪克斯?阿吉（Mukesh Aghi）承认网上大学失败的例子不胜枚举，并表示要推广一个仍然招致怀疑目光的产品很难。
“我认为，教育是一个建立在参照基础上的市场。我承认，当你还只是一个默默无闻的品牌时，要推销产品很不容易。你必须接近潜在客户。我认为，我们正是通过提供广泛普及并有价值的教育获得了这一基础。我们的学生能接触到顶尖的教授和全球网络信息库。”
未来几年对于U21来说将极为关键。到2007年，它务必吸纳2500名学生才能保证收支平衡。阿吉先生说，股东和相关大学依然决心要长期发展U21计划。
“目前，根据我们的财政和收入规定，U21尚未负债，这让我感到欣慰。”现在，U21仍然对印度和中国这两大广阔的市场虎视眈眈。
虚拟教育若要在全球范围内飞速发展，阿吉先生认为必须扭转人们的观念。与面对面的教育相比，他们还是认为网络学位低人一等。
他特别提到了菲尼克斯大学在商业上取得的成功。该大学在全美各大校园以及网上大学中共有15万名学生，虚拟大学模式在此获得成功。他相信，网络教育要取得成功，必须模拟课堂环境。
虽然U21前途未卜，但今年8月，当第一批学生毕业后，市场将对其学位的价值做出评判。
正在翘首以待这一天到来的阿吉先生指出：“我认为我们的学位是有价值的，但我想市场自有公断。英语里有这样一句话：‘布丁好坏，一尝便知’。”
