Is US and China distorting global energy markets?
AN BREMMER
Together, US and Chinese policies are distorting global energy markets. The differing perceptions in Washington and Beijing of the strategic importance of energy supply are pushing prices ever higher. Unless Washington and Beijing align their interests as energy consumers, this distortion will intensify a growing geopolitical rivalry.
US-Chinese competition for access to oil markets is not the issue. In principle, the global energy market mechanism should prevent such competition from upsetting prices. But the US and China understand their energy interests in different ways. China views long-term agreements to lock up energy supply as a means to achieve its most basic objectives: nourishing its economic expansion and avoiding a financial crash that could provoke political unrest. China's energy demand is growing at stunning speed. It has to import twice the amount of oil it did just five years ago. If its oil consumption grows at an average of 7 per cent a year (as it has since 1990), China will need 21m barrels a day by 2022 what the US consumes today.
That is why energy agreements with new suppliers have become a Chinese priority. To secure long-term supply, Beijing often pays substantially above market rates to get the deals done. That distorts market prices.
In addition, China looks to markets where competition is less intense. This leads Beijing to cut deals with regimes that are politically isolated and therefore anxious for access to a market like China's. That is where the conflict really begins, because it is the US that wants these regimes isolated, while China provides them with both cash and political cover. For example, China has now become the major obstacle to multilateral pressure on Iran to renounce its nuclear ambitions. In November, China signed a memorandum of understanding for a $70bn agreement to buy 250m tons of liquefied natural gas from Iran over 30 years. As a result, China is likely to block any US attempt to use the United Nations Security Council to impose sanctions on Iranian oil and gas.
China's search for energy supplies has also complicated US efforts to stop what the Bush administration calls state-sponsored genocide in the Darfur region of Sudan. Southern Darfur is rich in oil, and the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation holds the largest oil concession there. And, because China's navy is not yet able to challenge US naval supremacy in Asia, a security crisis over, say, Taiwan, might lead the US to blockade China and cut off its access to oil shipped in from the Middle East and north Africa. To reduce its vulnerability to such a scenario, China is considering building an oil pipeline across Burma a state the Bush administration has included on its list of “outposts of tyranny”.
At the same time, the Bush administration uses energy policy to pursue its geostrategic interests. Washington supports pipeline diversification. But it wants pipeline networks that avoid regimes it does not like. By refusing for political or security reasons to support cheaper pipeline networks, the US too is distorting the oil market.
From an economic perspective, the interests of the US and China should be in harmony. Together, they consume a large and growing share of the world's oil. Both have an obvious interest in keeping prices low. If China were less compelled by its energy demand to take actions that bring it into conflict with Washington, both sides would profit. The US should help China become more energy efficient. China will have less need to form relationships with governments the US wants to isolate, will be less dependent on energy imports, and oil markets will move closer to an equilibrium price.
The US can build on the US-China Renewable Energy Development and Energy Efficiency Protocol to help China develop alternative sources of energy. American companies that provide China with energy efficiency technology will benefit directly. Washington could also help China develop an Asian strategic oil reserve. China imports half its oil from the volatile Middle East and is therefore vulnerable to sudden political shocks. With western financing, China could stock a 90-day emergency supply of oil. It's current reserve is less than 30 days.
Aligning US and Chinese interests would allow them to co-ordinate resistance to profiteering on world energy markets and to take the edge off their geopolitical rivalry. It also would remove much of the current distortion from oil prices. But if Washington and Beijing continue to work at cross-purposes the conflict will grow and all who import energy will pay the price.
The writer is president of Eurasia Group and senior fellow at the World Policy Institute
中美扭曲了能源市场？
美国和中国的政策正一起扭曲着全球能源市场。对于能源供应的战略重要性，美中两国政府理解不一，导致能源价格不断攀升。除非两国政府使双方作为能源消费国的利益一致，否则这种扭曲将加剧日益激烈的地缘政治竞争。
美中为进入石油市场展开竞争并非问题所在。原则上，全球能源市场机制可以防止这种竞争扰乱价格。但美国和中国以不同的方式来理解各自的能源利益。中国把通过长期协议锁定能源供应视为一种手段，以此来实现其最基本的目标：滋养经济扩张态势，并避免可能引发政局动荡的金融崩溃。中国的能源需求正以令人瞠目的速度增长。现在，中国不得不以两倍于短短5年前的数量进口石油。如果中国的石油消费以年均7%的速度增长(自1990年以来就是如此)，那么到2022年，中国每天将需要2100万桶原油，即美国如今的消费量。
正因如此，与新的供应方达成能源协议已成为中国优先考虑的事项。为了确保长期能源供应，中国政府经常支付大大高于市场水平的价格来达成交易。这种做法扭曲了市场价格。
此外，中国期望进入竞争不太激烈的市场。这导致中国政府与一些政治上被孤立、故而渴望打入中国之类市场的政权进行交易。中美之间的冲突正是由此产生，因为正是美国希望这些政权被孤立，而中国却为它们提供资金和政治庇护。例如，在对伊朗施加多边压力、要求其放弃雄心勃勃的核武器计划方面，中国现已成为主要障碍。去年11月，中国就价值700亿美元的采购协议同伊朗签署了谅解备忘录，依照该协议，中国将在未来30年内从伊朗购买2.5亿吨液化天然气。结果，美国试图通过联合国安理会对伊朗石油及天然气实施禁运，而中国可能会阻碍美国在此方面的任何努力。
对于苏丹达尔夫尔地区发生的事件，布什政府称之为国家支持的种族灭绝行动，并阻止这一事态的发展。但中国对能源供应的寻求也已令美国这一努力变得复杂，因为达尔夫尔南部有着丰富的石油资源，而中国石油天然气集团公司(Chinese National Petroleum Corporation)在那里拥有最大的石油开采权。此外，由于中国海军还无法对美国在亚洲的海上霸权构成挑战，所以一旦出现安全危机（比如台海危机），就有可能导致美国对中国实行海上封锁，并切断中东和北非对中国的海上石油输送。为减轻因这种情况而受损的程度，中国正考虑建设一条穿越缅甸的输油管道。而布什政府已将缅甸列入它的“暴政前哨国”(outposts of tyranny)名单中。
与此同时，布什政府运用能源政策来追求其地缘政治利益。美国政府支持能源来源的多样化，但希望管道网络避开它不喜欢的政体。由于美国以政治或安全因素为由，拒绝为成本较低的管道网络建设提供支持，它也在扭曲石油市场。
从经济角度来看，美国和中国的利益应该是协调一致的。两国一起消耗着全球石油中的庞大份额，且这一份额还在不断扩大。让石油价格保持低位显然对两国都有利。迫于能源需求，中国采取了一些令其与美国政府冲突的行动，如果中国感到不是迫切需要这么做，那么对双方都有好处。美国应帮助中国提高能源的利用效率。这样中国与那些美国想要孤立的国家建立关系的必要性、以及对能源进口的依赖将降低，而石油市场也将向一个均衡价格靠拢。
美国可以根据《中美可再生能源和能源效率合作议定书》(US-China Renewable Energy Development and Energy Efficiency Protocol)来帮助中国开发可替代的能源来源。向中国提供节能技术的美国公司将直接受益。美国政府也可以帮助中国发展亚洲战略石油储备。中国的一半石油进口来自动荡的中东地区，因而难以经受该地区突发的政局变故。若能得到西方国家的资金支持，中国可以储备90天的紧急石油供给。而中国目前的储备不足30天。
使美国与中国的利益相一致，它们就能协同抵制全球能源市场上的投机活动，减弱它们在地缘政治上的对立状态。这还能大大消除当前石油价格的扭曲状况。但是，如果美中两国政府继续背道而驰，那么双方的冲突将会加剧，且所有进口能源的国家都将为此付出代价。
本文作者是欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)总裁，世界政策研究所(World Policy Institute)资深成员。
