Shanda keeps game plan for Sina under wraps
The most popular online role-playing game operated by Shanda Interactive Entertainment divides the world between warriors, wizards and magi played by fee-paying customers and a host of giant bugs, zombies and heavily armed ogres that they must slay.
But the role being played by Shanda, China's biggest internet games company, is proving more difficult to judge for local rival and potential takeover target Sina, the country's leading internet portal.
Sina has yet to offer any detailed response to news that Shanda has bought nearly 20 per cent of its shares for US$196m, limiting itself to saying that it is reviewing the situation.
Shanda's surprise move has sparked talk of the creation of a new national champion for China's fast-growing internet industry, a combination of two Nasdaq-listed market leaders with a total market capitalisation of nearly US$3.5bn.
But in an internal email to Sina staff at the weekend, Wang Yan, president and CEO, gave no sign of desire to team up with Shanda.
“Sina's staff and management team have already created a solid foundation for sustained operation as an independent venture,” Mr Wang wrote.
Such lack of enthusiasm is understandable. Sina has long been talked of as a possible merger target and even discussed the possibility with Shanda more than a year ago, according to a senior manager.
But Shanda's decision to buy such a big stake in the open market seems to have taken the portal by surprise. Asked if it had been given any warning, a Sina official said only that Shanda had contacted it “as a formality” when filing a notice to US regulators.
But even if Shanda's advances are unsolicited, some analysts say Sina should make them welcome.
A merger or alliance would bring together Shanda's strength in “massively multiplayer online role-playing games” (MMORPGs) and the much larger but somewhat less committed pool of customers who use Sina's online news, entertainment and mobile phone messaging services.
Sina has already beentrying to develop MMORPGs but its business is tiny compared with Shanda, which says that at peak times it has up to 2m people playing its online games.
The Sina manager makes clear some staff are hoping for a deal: “I personally feel that if the company can achieve greater scale, that should be a good thing.” For Shanda, buying Sina would bring access to even more potential customers, cut costs and help it to bargain with advertisers and telecoms operators, says Wallace Cheung of DBS Vickers Securities.
Fang Xingdong, a Chinese technology commentator, says: “This is a match made in heaven. A marriage like this will send a shock wave through the Chinese internet, changing it from the very foundations.”
Some local commentators hope that a takeover by Shanda will prevent Sina from falling into the hands of an international competitor such as Yahoo, long rumoured to be a suitor.
Any deal would have major implications for Sina's Nasdaq-listed rivals, Netease which already has a strong presence in online games and the smaller Sohu.
Together, the three companies dominate China's portal sector, but they are finding it increasingly hard to maintain the pace of past growth amid fierce competition from a host of rivals and changes of policy from regulators and dominant wireless operator China Mobile.
However, some analysts say Shanda should focus on developing its own core business and coming up with new MMORPGs to replicate the success of its biggest seller, “Legend of Mir II”. Critics say “The World of Legend”, which Shanda has released as a successor to the South Korean-developed Mir II, is highly derivative. Sina's executives and shareholders must alsoconsider how well two companies with very different cultures might be combined. The more diverse business run by Sina would offer very new challenges for Shanda's youthful founder Chen Tianqiao.
Some observers see Sina's silence as a sign that the scene might be set for the first hostile takeover by a leading China-based company of a local rival.
One industry executive who has worked with Sina thinks the portal's leaders are more likely to see Shanda as a monster thana hero. “I think they'll fight,” he says.
盛大向新浪出招的背后
盛大交互娱乐有限公司（Shanda Interactive Entertainment）经营的最流行的网上角色扮演游戏将世界一分为二，一方是由付费顾客所扮演的武士、术士和巫师，另一方则是一群必须被杀的巨虫、僵尸和全副武装的怪物。
然而，对于本地的竞争对手和潜在的并购对象――中国最大的门户网站新浪（Sina）来说，这个中国最大的网络游戏公司所扮演的角色确实更难判断。
新浪尚未对有关盛大以1.96亿美元收购其近20%股份的消息作出任何详细的回应，仅表示正对此进行研究。
盛大出人意料的举动引发人们在中国发展迅速的互联网产业创造一个新的龙头企业的讨论。在纳斯达克上市的业内两大巨头合并后，其市值总和将近35亿美元。
不过，新浪董事长兼首席执行官汪延（Wang Yan）上周末发给员工的内部邮件并未传递出任何期望与盛大携手的讯息。汪先生写到：“新浪员工和管理团队已为新浪作为一个独立企业，开展持续经营打下了坚实的基础。”
如此缺乏热情情有可原。据一位高层经理透露，新浪长期以来一直被当作一个可能的合并对象，甚至一年多前还与盛大讨论过并购可能。
可盛大在公开市场购买如此巨额股份的决定，似乎使该门户网站大吃一惊。当被问及是否收到过任何警告时，新浪的一位官员说，盛大在向美国监管部门提交备案时，仅作为“一种手续”联系了新浪。
但是，即便盛大的示好不是应邀而为，一些分析师认为新浪也应欢迎此举。
合并或联盟将使双方优势互补，即盛大在“大型多人网络角色扮演游戏”（MMORPGS）方面的实力，以及使用新浪网上新闻、娱乐和移动电话信息服务的客户群。这些人数量比盛大要多，但却缺乏忠诚。
新浪一直试图开发大型多人网络角色扮演游戏，但其业务量与盛大相比还很小。盛大称，在高峰时间，多达200万人玩其网上游戏。
新浪的这位经理明确表示一些员工希望达成交易。“我个人认为，如果公司能扩大规模，这应该是件好事”。唯高达证券（DBS Vickers Securities）的华莱士?张（Wallace Cheung）说，对盛大而言，购并新浪将会获得更多潜在客户，降低成本，并帮助其与广告商及电信运营商讨价还价。
中国科技评论员方兴东（Fang Xingdong）说：“这是天作之合。这种联姻将给中国互联网带来冲击波，使其发生根本性改变。”
本地一些评论员希望，盛大的并购将避免新浪落入国际竞争对手手中，如长期谣传的收购者雅虎（Yahoo）。
任何交易都会对新浪在纳斯达克上市的竞争对手产生重要的影响，包括已在网上游戏领域占有重要一席的网易（Netease）和规模较小的搜狐（Sohu）。
这3家公司一起主导着中国的门户网站，但是由于众多对手引发的激烈竞争，以及监管机构和居支配地位的无线运营商中国移动（China Mobile）的政策变化，它们发现要维持快速增长变得日益困难。
然而，一些分析师认为盛大应集中精力发展核心业务，推出新的大型多人网络角色扮演游戏，再创其最畅销游戏《热血传奇》的辉煌。批评者说，由盛大发行、作为韩国开发的《热血传奇》后续产品的《传奇世界》完全是前者的翻版。新浪的高管和股东也必须考虑两个文化截然不同的公司如何才能更好地结合。新浪经营的更为多元化的业务，将为盛大年轻的创始人陈天桥（Chen Tianqiao）带来全新的挑战。
一些观察家将新浪的沉默视为一个信号，表明首例由中国本土领军企业针对当地竞争对手的恶意并购可能正拉开帷幕。
一位一直与新浪合作的业内高管认为，该门户网站高层更可能将盛大视为洪水猛兽而非英雄。他说：“我想他们会斗争到底。”
