High Oil Prices Are Stinging Abroad
The recent economic contractions in Germany, Italy and Japan challenge the widespread perception that the world's major industrialized economies are able to shrug off high oil prices, and cast a shadow over their prospects in 2005.
In each of these countries persistently high oil prices collided with an already-fragile economy suffering from the reluctance of consumers to spend. The drag of oil prices was enough to tip all three from low growth into negative growth in the last quarter.
Although crude prices have fallen since hitting highs of $55 a barrel in October, they remain well above their levels in recent years. At the same time, lower global growth than last year is likely to damp exports. That combination means the weaker industrial economies will need a significant improvement in employment and consumer spending to resume their recovery.
The U.S. largely shrugged off last year's oil-price surge because its economy had far more momentum than either the euro zone's or Japan's. U.S. real gross domestic product grew a healthy 4.4% in 2004.
For Germany and Italy, the rise in the oil price since early 2004 led to a higher bill for oil imports -- equivalent to about 0.4% of GDP in the fourth quarter, according to figures from national accounts and the Paris-based International Energy Agency. Weakness in consumer spending and business investment meant the two countries couldn't maintain growth in the face of the headwind from oil prices.
"For Germany and Italy, spring can't come soon enough, because it will reduce their need for heating oil," said Julian Callow , chief economist at Barclays Capital in London.
Japan is one of the world's most energy-efficient economies, but with its growth near zero, higher oil prices probably made the difference between growth and contraction in the last half of 2004, economists say. Japan's petroleum-import bill rose by 736 billion yen ($6.99 billion) in 2004 from a year earlier, according to Finance Ministry trade statistics -- equal to 0.15% of the country's 2003 GDP.
Normally that kind of impact wouldn't make the difference between growth and contraction. But Japan suffered other problems. Exports grew more slowly than in the recent past, while higher oil prices raised the cost of Japan's imports. That meant that net exports -- the difference between exports and imports of goods and services -- subtracted 0.2 percentage point from GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
At the same time, consumption was hurt by bad and unseasonable weather. Thus even small declines in growth from higher oil prices probably were decisive in tipping the Japanese economy into recession.
Japan announced Wednesday that GDP declined in price-adjusted terms by 0.1% in the October-December period compared with the previous quarter. Revised figures for the July-September and April-June periods showed contractions.
"If it's from a starting point of around plus 0.1% or so, it doesn't take much to send you into recession," said Peter Morgan, chief economist at HSBC Securities in Tokyo.
Oil-related expenditures also devoured more than usual of consumers' disposable incomes. In Germany, where preliminary figures show that the economy contracted by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, the federal statistics office said retail sales in the crucial December period fell 2.7% from a year earlier. Higher bills for heating oil as well as government cuts to unemployment benefits are believed to have made consumers, whose spending makes up 58% of the German economy, even less willing to splash out.
In Italy, which suffered a 0.3% fall in GDP in the fourth quarter, energy prices and the high euro have combined with relatively high inflation to hurt the competitiveness of Italian companies, as shown in poor export performance.
The U.S. did see a slowdown last year, but it wasn't as severe as in other regions, according to Nigel Gault, U.S. economist at Global Insight, a forecasting and consulting firm in Lexington, Mass. GDP grew 4.5% in the first quarter, then eased in the following quarters to 3.3%, 4% and 3.1%.
The U.S. gains somewhat from being an oil producer, and from government policy. "The U.S. had a lot more fiscal and monetary stimulus going for it than many of our trading partners did," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland. This helped keep consumers and companies spending.
油价高企拖累主要工业国经济
人们曾普遍认为原油价格飙升不会对主要工业国经济产生太大的影响，然而近期德国、意大利和日本经济出现萎缩的事实动摇了这一观点，并为它们2005年的经济增长前景蒙上阴影。
这些国家的经济本来就受到消费支出疲软的拖累，油价的持续攀升更是令其本已脆弱的经济雪上加霜。上个季度，油价的负面影响让这三个国家的经济从缓慢增长跌落为负增长。
虽然原油价格在10月份创下每桶55美元的历史新高后一直在向下回落，但仍维持在近几年的油价水平之上。同时，全球经济增速较去年放缓可能也会影响到出口。种种这些情况都表明，经济走软的工业国需要大力改善就业、刺激消费支出来重振经济。
去年油价大幅上涨并没有对美国经济造成太大影响，原因在于其增长动力远远强于欧元区国家或日本。2004年美国国内生产总值(GDP)增幅达到了4.4%。
据德国和意大利的国民核算帐户，以及位于巴黎的国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的数据显示，自2004年年初以来的油价上扬导致上述两国的石油进口成本上升，约相当于第四季度GDP的0.4%。由于德国和意大利的消费支出和企业投资本来就很疲软，它们可能无法抵御住油价的冲击，从而难以维持经济的增长。
巴克莱(Barclays Capital)驻伦敦的首席经济学家朱利安?卡洛(Julian Callow)表示，德国和意大利正盼望著春天早点到来，因为届时市场对取暖油的需求将会减少。
经济学家表示，日本是世界上能源使用效率最高的经济体之一，但其经济增长率接近于零，因此油价可能2004年下半年日本经济增长或是衰退的主要决定因素。据财务省(Finance Ministry)的贸易统计数据，日本2004年的石油进口额较上年增加了7,360亿日圆（69.9亿美元），相当于该国2003年GDP的0.15%。
通常而言，这样的影响是无法决定经济是增长还是衰退的，但日本还面临著其他的问题。在近几年，日本出口增速放缓，而油价高企又增加了进口的成本，第四季度日本净出口额（商品和服务的出口额与进口额之差）的减少使得GDP增幅降低了0.2个百分点。
同时，由于天气情况恶劣反常，使消费行为受到打击。因此，由于高油价导致的任何幅度可能并不大的经济回落，也可能令日本经济陷入衰退。
日本上周三公布称，10至12月当季GDP经过价格调整后较上一个季度下降了0.1%。第三季度和第二季度修正后的数据也表明这两个季度日本经济出现了萎缩。
汇丰证券(HSBC Securities)驻东京的首席经济学家彼得?摩根(Peter Morgan)称，如果日本经济是以0.1%左右的速度开始增长，很容易就会陷入到衰退之中。
石油相关的支出也吞噬了更多消费者的可支配收入。在德国，初步统计数据显示，第四季度经济下滑了0.2%，一位联邦统计机构官员称，在这个重要的销售季节，零售销售较上年同期下降了2.7%。取暖油价格上涨、以及政府降低失业福利被认为是消费者减少开支的主要原因。消费者支出占德国GDP的58%。
意大利第四季度的GDP下降了0.3%。能源价格上涨、欧元升值，加上相对较高的通货膨胀率损害了意大利企业的竞争力，导致该国出口表现差强人意。
据预测和咨询机构Global Insight的美国经济学家奈杰尔?高尔特(Nigel Gault)称，去年美国经济的确有所放缓，但情况不像其他地区那样严重。美国去年第一季度GDP增幅为4.5%，在后来几个季度分别放缓至3.3%、4%和3.1%。
美国在一定程度上得益于政府的政策、以及其自身就是一个产油国的优势。National City Corp.的首席经济学家理查德?杰卡瑟(Richard DeKaser)称，与美国许多贸易伙伴相比，美国政府推出了更多刺激经济的财政和货币政策，刺激消费者和企业的支出。
