The Boomer Bust
WATCH OUT FOR AGING boomers: They might bite you.
During the next decade 40 million baby boomers will observe, if not exactly celebrate, their 50th birthday. The prospect of so many aging boomers should concern us all because so few of them have sufficient savings or investments for their retirement years. That half-century milestone just might be the wake-up call that says: "Time to start doing something about financing your golden years."
The danger to the economy is that a significant portion will start to do what any sensible person facing leaner times would do: cut expenditures and sell some assets. The hit to the two-thirds of the economy that's consumer spending would not be a pretty sight. And the key asset the boomers might sell, of course, would be their high-priced house in the suburbs.
That house has approximately doubled in value over the past five years and since the kids are either about to leave or have left, it makes sense to sell and move into a smaller condo or something like it. In fact, there are real estate agents now suggesting that the cash from a $1 million house in the suburbs can be re-invested in two $400,000 condominiums, one for summer and fall one for the winter and spring, leaving a little nest egg of $200,000.
The increased demand would probably be good for the condo market but would suck the froth off the top of the lofty housing prices in many suburbs. Someone who just paid $1.5 million for that fixer-upper on a quarter-acre lot in suburban Boston or San Francisco had better hope they don't have to move for a long time.
To measure just how big this hit might be we can turn to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual consumer expenditure surveys. Those surveys measure just how much U.S. households spend at each age and on what types of goods or services.
The most recent survey data, for 2003, allows us to compare per household spending for households where the average householder is 49 years old with the diminished spending for households where the average householder is 59 years old. By coincidence, the oldest baby boomers will turn 59 this year.
Keep in mind that the kids are leaving home, so there are fewer mouths to feed and not as many bodies that need clothing. But that's the point. These smaller and older households spend less because they are smaller and older. But they are also growing much faster than any other household age cohort.
The BLS reports that between 49 and 59 years old, there's a drop of 20% in per household spending on apparel, a decline of 18% in spending on food away from home, and a decrease of 10% on food at home. The aggregate drop in spending on food and clothing alone is almost $30 billion. The hit to retail sales nationwide could further the consolidation of retailers.
Spending on owned dwellings also drops, by 16%. This is partly because some households had move to less expensive quarters but also because some of the more savvy consumers pay off all or most of their mortgage.
During that 10 years from ages 49 to 59, spending declines for all major categories except three: health care (up 23%), reading material (up 32%), and entertainment, which edges up slightly. That last kind of spending increases because older people who are nearing retirement spend more on recreational vehicles, fishing or hunting gear and other leisure goods.
Twice in this article we have mentioned sensible consumers: people who cut back on spending in order to save for their retirement and people who pay off their mortgage so as to reduce their shelter costs. But, in my experience, no one has ever accused baby boomers of being sensible consumers.
This suggests an alternative scenario to the one outlined above. It is just possible that tens of millions of boomers will not behave like their predecessors who started preparing for retirement by selling the big family home, working less and cutting back on their spending.
There is some evidence that baby boomers, who delayed getting married and having children, just might delay even thinking about retirement as well. The same BLS that tracks consumer spending also makes labor-force projections by age. They are forecasting a huge increase in the workforce ages 55 to 74 years old over the next decade (4.1% per year compared to 1.1% per year overall).
The key difference between boomers and their predecessors is that a higher percentage of both men and women boomers are college graduates, more of them work in office-based occupations, and women boomers have a much stronger attachment to work. There's probably a chance that instead of a pre-retirement cutting back, boomers will keep on working and spending for at least another decade. Let's hope so.
婴儿潮一代为退休计，节衣缩食？
要小心那些即将步入老年的婴儿潮一代：他们可能会给美国经济带来阵痛。
未来十年，将有4,000万婴儿潮时期出生的人踏入50岁的门坎。这么多人即将步入老年是应当引起所有人的关注，因为他们中很少有人为退休后的生活置下了足够的储蓄或投资。50岁或许只足以警示他们：“该为晚年的生计做些什么了！”
这种状况对美国经济的威胁是：可能有相当一部分人会采取一个理性消费者可能采取的应对措施，即削减支出并出售一些资产。这将对占美国经济总量2/3的消费者支出造成重大冲击。婴儿潮一代可能出售的重要资产自然是他们位于郊区的高价独立住宅。
过去5年，郊区独立住宅的价格几乎增长了一倍。随著子女即将或已经离巢，老人将郊区的独立住宅出售，搬入面积较小的公寓套间等地比较划算，也合乎情理。房地产中介们也建议称，出售郊区一栋100万美元的独立住宅后可投资两套40万美元的公寓，一套用于夏秋居住，另一套冬春居住，并能留下20万美元的储蓄。
需求上升对公寓市场或许是好事，但许多郊区独立住宅居高不下的价格可能会因此回落。如果有人刚刚为波士顿或旧金山郊区一块1/4英亩土地上的一栋需要整修的旧楼支付了150万美元的话，他们最好期望自己很长时间都不用搬家。
要想衡量这个冲击有多大，我们可以求助美国劳工统计局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)的年度消费者支出调查。这些调查衡量的是各个年龄段的美国家庭在各种商品或服务上的支出。
最新的调查数据是2003年的，从中我们可以比较平均年龄为49岁的家庭以及平均年龄为59岁的家庭的户均支出数据。恰巧的是，婴儿潮一代中年纪最大的今年的确将进入59岁。
子女的离巢使这些家庭的食品和服装需求减少。但这就是症结所在。这些人数减少、年龄老化的家庭支出下降，原因正是家庭人口减少以及平均年龄老化。但他们的变化速度要比任何年龄段的变化都快。
据美国劳工统计局公布的数据，在49岁至59岁的10年间，户均服装支出减少20%，外出就餐支出减少18%，居家饮食支出减少10%。仅服装和食品两项，总计减少支出近300亿美元。这对全美零售销售的冲击可能进一步推动行业的整合。
自有住房的支出也呈现16%的降幅，部分原因是一些家庭搬入了不那么昂贵的住宅区域，另外也是因为一些精明的消费者如数或几乎全部还清了抵押贷款。
在49岁至59岁的10年间，几乎所有大类的支出均有所减少，只有三类除外：医疗保健（增加23%）、阅读材料（增加32%）以及娱乐（小幅增加）。娱乐支出增加是因为接近退休年龄的人们在车船、渔具或猎具等休闲商品上的支出增加。
所谓理性消费者，就是那些减少支出、为退休后的生活进行储蓄，还清抵押贷款以减轻压力的人们。但在我的印象中，从来没有人认为婴儿潮一代是理性消费者。
因此，实际情况很可能完全不同于上文所述。人数达几千万之众的婴儿潮一代很可能异于前人，不会出售大房子、减少支出等为退休后的生活谋划。
有证据显示，结婚生子都比以往晚的婴儿潮一代或许也会比较晚才会考虑到退休后的生活。美国劳工统计局的上述调查也对不同年龄段的劳工数量进行预测。他们预计未来10年，55岁至74岁的劳工人数将大增（年增幅4.1%，高于1.1%的整体增幅）。
婴儿潮一代与以前的人们相比有一个重要的不同：婴儿潮一代不论男女，大学毕业生比例都较高，更多的人从事的是办公室工作。婴儿潮一代中的女性相比前人更专注于工作。因此，很有可能婴儿潮一代在至少未来10年内还会继续工作，并保持支出。但愿如此。
编者按：本文作者Peter Francese系奥美公司(Ogilvy & Mather)人口统计趋势分析师
