Japan returns to recession
Japan's economy has slipped back into recession, bringing an official end to the country's three-year recovery, according to data released yesterday which showed gross domestic product had contracted for three consecutive quarters.
Preliminary figures from the Cabinet Office showed GDP shrank 0.1 per cent between October and December 2004. Revised figures showed the contraction began nine months ago, with growth down 0.3 per cent between July and September and 0.2 per cent from April to June. A recession is normally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
Japan, the world's second largest economy, has experienced its sturdiest recovery in more than a decade in the past three years, prompting hopes the country was on a path towards sustainable growth. Yesterday's figures confirmed the revival was not as robust as had been hoped.
Richard Jerram, economist at Macquarie Securities, said: “The economy has been in a soft patch for the past six months, in particular in the third quarter of 2004. This seems to have been due to weak exports and to apparently poor consumer spending, despite improving wage incomes.” The latest figures indicate Japan will struggle to meet a government forecast made last month of 2.1 per cent real GDP growth for the 2004 fiscal year. This would require the economy to rise by 2.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter between January and March. In November, the government changed the way it calculated GDP growth to bring it into line with international standards. When applied to previous periods, this had already taken the shine off Japan's recovery. Yesterday's weaker-than-expected economic data came as the Bank of Japan began a meeting to discuss possible changes to monetary policy. The country's economic recovery had intensified debate about the central bank's zero interest rate policy.
Jesper Koll, economist at Merrill Lynch, said: “For policymakers the message is straightforward: Japan has slipped back into recession, which should make academic any discussion of ending the current monetary policy framework. Expect the BoJ to maintain the current reserve target range of Y30,000bn ($287bn) to Y35,000bn for the foreseeable future.” This target range floods the markets with liquidity.
Japanese politicians put a positive gloss on the lacklustre growth figures. Heizo Takenaka, economics minister, said: “The economy is basically recovering but we are in an adjustment phase that's a little long.” Junichiro Koizumi, prime minister, said: “It is just that the consolidation is being protracted.”
Private sector economists agreed there were areas of strength within the Japanese economy, which meant growth should pick up soon.
The Japanese stock market fell in reaction to the data, with the Nikkei 225 average down 0.4 per cent at 11,601 points. The yen weakened against the dollar and euro, trading at Y105.1 to the dollar and Y130.2 to the euro.
日本再陷经济衰退
（编辑注：日本重陷经济衰退，这是10年来的第四次。对此，北京自然关注。观察家常用“政冷经热”来描述近期的中日关系。其实不然。两国政治正处低潮，双边经贸脉络也微妙混沌。年初，中国首次超过美国，成为日本第一大贸易伙伴。但问题是这一纪录能否持续？同时，曾连续11年为中国最大贸易国的日本，去年已降为老三，对华投资已低于韩国，退居第四。有论者预见，2005是日中关系过关之年，不进则退。当下日本重新笼罩衰退阴影，日中贸易走向也更增未知数。）
据昨天公布的数据，日本经济再度陷入衰退，为期三年的复苏正式终结。数据显示，日本国内生产总值已连续三个季度缩减。
来自日本内阁府(Cabinet Office)的初步数据显示，2004年10月至12月间，日本国内生产总值(GDP)收缩0.1%。修正后的数据显示，收缩始自9个月前，在2004年7月和9月间，GDP负增长0.3%，4月至6月间GDP负增长0.2%。经济衰退的通常定义是连续两季度的负增长。
过去3年中，全球第二大经济体日本经历了10多年来最强劲的复苏，使人们对日本走上可持续增长道路寄予希望。昨天的数据证明，复苏并不像原本期待的那样强劲。
麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities) 经济学家理查德?杰拉姆(Richard Jerram)表示：“日本经济过去6个月陷入低迷，尤其是在2004年第3季度。这似乎是由于出口疲弱和明显糟糕的消费者支出，尽管工资收入有所提高。”
这些最新数据表明，尽管日本政府上月预测2004财政年度实际GDP增长率将达2.1％，但日本将难以达到这一预测，因为那将需要1至3月份经济比上季度增长2.1%。
去年11月，日本政府改变了计算GDP增长率的方法，使其符合国际标准。若用该办法计算此前的GDP数据，会使日本的复苏失去光彩。
昨天发布低于预期的经济数据，恰值日本央行(Bank of Japan)开会讨论货币政策的可能变革。此前，日本经济复苏加剧了围绕央行零利率政策的争论。
美林(Merrill Lynch)经济学家叶斯珀?科尔(Jesper Koll)表示：“对于决策者而言，这些数据传递的信息非常简单：日本已再度陷入衰退，这使有关结束现行货币政策框架的任何讨论变得不切实际。预期在可预见的将来，日本央行将保持现有的储备目标范围，即30万亿日元(合2870亿美元)至35万亿日元。”这一目标范围将为市场注入大量流动资金。
