China to see inflation pressure from raw materials prices, weak USD in 2005
The main sources of inflation pressure in China this year will be rising raw materials prices and the weakening US dollar, the China Securities Journal reported, citing a senior government official.
In a research report published in the newspaper, Xu Lianzhong, director of the price monitoring department of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said past increases in the price of production materials would flow through to inflation in 2005.
The price of steel rose by 38.3 pct over the past two years, while the price of non-ferrous metal rose 44.1 pct, coal rose 28.5 pct, and crude oil increased 23.9 pct.
Xu said he expects the cost of production materials will rise again in 2005 and push up the price of goods.
He said the price of coal and electricity will also increase.
The weakening US dollar will lead to increases in the price of China's imports and further inflation pressure, Xu said, because the yuan is pegged to the dollar.
Xu predicted the US dollar will remain weak and that China's import prices will continue to rise.
The pressure is expected to be aggravated by rises in the price of electricity, water, and gas which were frozen by the government last year.
China has faced serious inflation pressure since the beginning of 2004, mainly because of a grain shortage which forced up food prices.
The CPI rose 5.3 pct year-on-year both in July and August, almost matching the banks' benchmark one year lending rate of 5.31 pct.
Fears of an inflation outbreak prompted the People's Bank of China, the central bank, to raise both the benchmark one year deposit and lending interest rates by 27 basis points in late October, the first rate hike in more than nine-years.
The CPI growth rate peaked in July and August, and then it slowed down as food prices eased on ample grain output. China's full year CPI growth is expected to be about four pct.
学者 : 中国05年面临6大物价上涨因素
国家发改委价格监测中心分析预测处处长徐连仲, 在周二《中国证券报》上的一篇研究报告称, 原材料价格上涨、政策性调价、城乡居民收入上升、国际市场价格上涨、美元贬值和房地产价格上涨, 将是今年中国经济面临的6大通胀因素。
徐连仲表示, 生产数据销售价格持续上升, 对下游产品价格和价格总水平上涨累积的压力逐渐加大。他指出, 2005年煤炭、电力价格上涨是必然的趋势。
徐连仲认为, 美元贬值也将进一步增加国内价格上涨压力, 因为美元贬值使中国进口成本大幅度上升。他认为今年美元有进一步贬值的可能。
另外, 2004年政府对公共服务价格的调控措施, 暂时缓解了价格总水平上涨压力, 但今年各地公共服务价格上调措施的出台将会增多, 从而导致水、电、燃气价格上涨幅度加大, 并使价格总水平上涨压力增大。
徐连仲还指出, 主要价格不确定性因素包括气候因素的不确定性导致的粮食产量及价格前景不确定性、国际政治局势变化导致的石油价格不确定性等。
