Japan must break with its past to prosper again
Returning to Japan recently, having been a regular visitor until eight years ago, I was braced for change. I arrived expecting to find an economy turned upside down by far-reaching upheavals. But I left with a curious sensation of déjà vu.
To be sure, shockwaves have rocked the economic landscape. Industrial companies have slashed costs and re-engineered themselves; the job-for-life salaryman, once the praetorian guard of Japan's labour force, has become an endangered species; crippling bad loans have forced drastic retrenchment and consolidation in banking, and a few in business have discovered the hostile takeover.
The survivors from this turmoil are indisputably leaner and fitter. Many Japanese manufacturers have reinforced their global market leadership by enhancing their efficiency, management and technological strength in depth.
But much of the work has consisted of pruning rotten branches not planting new saplings. The country is like a student of Joseph Schumpeter who has mastered economic destruction but has yet to learn how to make the process creative.
Today's internationally successful Japanese companies were all world-beaters 20 years ago, and in the same industries chiefly electronic, mechanical and precision engineering. The main difference is that corporate casualties have thinned their ranks.
Few thrusting newcomers have emerged to take the place of the fallen, or to pioneer novel markets. The most talked-about entrepreneurial success stories, such as Softbank and the thriving computer games and animation industry, are all about 20 years old.
Meanwhile, Japan remains as divided as ever into two economies. One, the high-performing export sector, is peopled by corporate global superstars; the other by agriculture and a multitude of often small services businesses operating in a domestic market largely insulated from foreign competition and riddled with restrictions. Most have, by US standards, dismal productivity.
With growth sagging, exports to China flattening out, the dollar falling and little scope at home for further monetary and fiscal stimulus, hopes for Japanese recovery increasingly rest on energising the country's flaccid “other economy” through micro-reforms. As the government has acknowledged, they are one of the few options left.
To its credit, Junichiro Koizumi's administration has done more than its predecessors to promote deregulation, having launched since 2001 a salvo of measures ranging from cuts in business start-up costs to the establishment of special lightly regulated economic zones.
But results so far are patchy and prospects unclear. Mr Koizumi may be personally committed to the programmes. But he will not be prime minister forever and, as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has pointed out, their effectiveness depends on sustaining political drive over the longer term.
In any case, Japanese industry's recent shake-out was spurred more by a sense of imminent crisis than by official initiatives or directives from the centre. As memories of that crisis fade, so may the momentum behind reform.
Where will renewed impetus be found? Curiously, one of its most promising sources may be Japan's biggest long-term challenge demographic change. As in other rich countries, increased demand from a rapidly ageing population for medical and other care services, coupled with a shrinking labour force, threatens to overwhelm the state's capacity to provide.
James Kondo of Tokyo University believes these forces will compel the country to seek more innovative and efficient ways to deliver services, creating big opportunities for private sector providers. There are already signs, he says, that Japanese doctors' power to resist such moves is crumbling in the face of growing public dissatisfaction and demands for change.
Subtler shifts in social attitudes may bolster the trend. Ever since the architects of the Meiji restoration toppled Japan's military dictatorship 150 years ago and set out to modernise the nation, its people have been driven by shared goals.
For almost 50 years after the second world war, the transcendent national goal was industrialisation and economic reconstruction: famously, homo japonicus lived to work. Today, polls suggest the aim, at least of better-off city dwellers, is precisely the reverse: to relax more and enjoy life.
If the Japanese do join the leisure classes, the economic consequences could be far-reaching. Such a shift would unleash demand for a whole range of new consumer services, widening the choice of popular pastimes far beyond karaoke, tourism and golf.
Admittedly, these are long-shot solutions. But efforts to break out of the past are more likely to succeed if they go with the flow of public demand and aspirations. Given Japan's economic predicament, the alternatives hardly appear more promising.
The writer will be starting a regular Asian affairs column on this page in early 2005
日本经济的出路
最近我重返日本，我已有8年没去日本了，所以期待会看到很多变化。我以前是那里的常客。此次来到日本，我原以为会看到日本经济被影响深远的剧变弄得一团糟。然而，我最终却怀着一种似曾相识的奇怪感觉离开了那里。
的确，各种冲击波已经大大改变了日本的经济图景。工业企业削减了成本，并重新自我调整；终生就业的工薪人士一度是日本劳动力的禁卫军，如今则已成为濒临灭绝的群体；极其严重的坏账问题已迫使银行业急剧收缩并进行整合，而一些仍在经营的银行已成为恶意收购的目标。
这一变局的幸存者无疑更精简、更健康。许多日本制造商通过深刻强化其效率、管理和技术力量，重新巩固了它们在全球市场的领导地位。
但大部分工作都只是修剪枯枝，而不是栽种新苗。日本就像约瑟夫?熊彼特(Joseph Schumpeter)的学生，对经济破坏非常精通，但还没学会如何使破坏过程具有创造性。
今天在国际上取得成功的日本公司都是20年前便已出类拔粹的企业，而且所处行业也一样，主要是电子、机械和精密工程。主要差别在于，一些公司的消亡让它们的队伍缩小了。
几乎没有出现来势汹汹的新面孔来取代衰败者的地位，或是充当新市场的先驱。人们谈论最多的成功创业故事，例如软银(Softbank)和兴旺的电脑游戏和动画产业等，都已有20年的历史了。
同时，日本依旧分裂为两个经济体。一个是业绩卓越的出口部门，这里充满全球超级明星企业。另一个部门则充斥着农业企业和大量通常规模较小的服务性企业，它们在国内市场经营，而该市场在很大程度上不受国外竞争的影响，并为种种限制所禁锢。按照美国标准，其中多数企业生产力低下。
由于自身增长无力，对中国的出口日趋疲弱，美元下跌，国内几乎没有进一步采用货币和财政刺激手段的空间，因此日本经济复苏的希望，越来越寄托在通过微观改革来激活该国虚弱的“另一个经济体”上面。政府已经承认，这是所剩为数不多的选择之一。
在推动解除管制方面，小泉纯一郎(Junichiro Koizumi)政府所做的已超出其前任。小泉政府自2001年起推出了一连串措施，包括降低企业开办成本，设立管制宽松的经济特区等。
但迄今为止这些措施只取得零星的成果，而且前景不明朗。小泉先生可能会亲自致力于推动这些方案。但他不会一直当首相，而且正如经合组织(OECD)所指出的，这些方案的有效性需要稳定的政治来推动。
无论如何，触发日本工业近期变革的，与其说是来自中央的官方倡议或指令，不如说是一种迫在眉睫的危机感。随着有关危机的记忆逐渐淡化，改革背后的动力也有可能消退。
在哪里能发现新的推动力？奇怪的是，最有希望的动力来源之一可能也是日本面临最大的长期挑战，即人口特征变化。和其它富裕国家一样，快速老龄化的人口对医疗和其它护理服务的需求日益增长，而同时劳动力规模不断收缩，这将使日本的供应能力受到根本威胁。
东京大学的詹姆斯?孔多(James Kondo)认为，这些因素将迫使日本寻求更具创新性、更高效的方法来提供服务，并为私人部门的供应商创造巨大机会。他表示，已有迹象表明，在公众的不和要求改革的呼声满越来越多的情况下，日本医生抵制上述举措的力量正在瓦解。
社会态度较微妙的转变可能会支持这一趋势。150年前，明治维新的创造者推翻了日本的军事独裁，开始了日本的现代化，从那时起，日本人就一直受到共同目标的驱动。
在二战后近50年的时间内，日本国高于一切的目标是工业化和经济重建：众所周知，那时全体日本人活着就是为了工作。如今调查结果表明，日本人的生活目标正好相反，那就是更加休闲并享受生活，至少小康城市的居民是这样。
如果日本人确实加入休闲一族，其经济后果将是影响深远的。这种转变将释放人们对一整套新消费服务的需求，并将大众娱乐的选择范围拓宽到卡拉OK、旅游和高尔夫以外。
无可否认，这些都是成功希望很小的冒险方案。但如果能与公众的要求和渴望一致起来，那么，与过去决裂的努力就很有可能取得成功。考虑到日本的经济困境，看来不会有比这更有前途的选择方案了。
