China's High-Octane Economy Shifts Into Slower Gear
Some economists are calling it a "soft landing." Others, no landing at all.
China expects to record economic growth of at least 9% this year and, according to many forecasts, will see only a slightly lower rate in 2005. The local economy of Shanghai, China's bustling, designer-clad business capital, is growing even faster, with a 13th straight year of double-digit growth predicted for this year.
The government in Beijing is attempting to rein in the expansion of the world's fastest-growing major economy to more sustainable levels by boosting interest rates and changing other policies. But booming trade, investment and domestic spending ensure that China will remain a major engine of growth.
"This is what we've been describing as 'no landing,' " says Andy Rothman, China strategist in Shanghai for CLSA Emerging Markets. "Growth is slowing a bit, but down to what is still a very rapid pace."
Increasingly affluent Chinese are spending more than ever on computers, entertainment, clothing and tourism.
A recent AC Nielsen Consumer Confidence Survey found the Chinese to be the most optimistic consumers among 28 markets studied, with 78% of those questioned expecting to be better off next year.
With the economy apparently steaming ahead under its own momentum, Beijing has dropped its policy of creating jobs by shoveling money into construction and other projects. In addition to raising interest rates, Communist leaders have ordered energy-saving measures and told local officials to cut spending on pointless prestige projects and unneeded factories, roads and other facilities.
Those policies reflect a recognition that, caught between shortages of energy, steel and other resources and already severe environmental damage, even high-octane China faces limits to its growth.
"There's no such thing as an eternal feast," the old Chinese saying goes.
China already consumes a third of the world's steel output, 40% of all cement and about a third of all coal.
Electricity shortfalls were severe enough to oblige Shanghai to darken skyscrapers during hot summer months. Railways turn away more capacity than they can carry. Widespread water shortages further limit industrial growth, experts say.
"China's economic growth picture has been rosy for years. But is it sustainable? And if so, for how long?" the official Xinhua News Agency said in a recent report that noted it would be a "hard job" to supply enough energy to meet the Communist Party's target of quadrupling GDP by 2020.
"They have to slow it down. If they don't, it would be catastrophic in the long run," says Bill Overholt, Asia policy chair at Rand Corp., a Santa Monica, California-based think tank. "The bill has to be paid."
For a second year, China's leaders have proclaimed raising incomes for hundreds of millions of impoverished farmers their top priority - an aim crucial to further boosting economic growth and preventing political unrest.
What doesn't appear to be on Beijing's agenda is loosening control over the Chinese yuan, which is tightly regulated and trades only within a narrow range around 8.28 yuan per U.S. dollar.
An unexpected surge in the trade surplus to $9.9 billion in November could invite more pressure to loosen the yuan's peg to the sinking dollar from critics who contend it undervalues China's exports by as much as 40%, giving its manufacturers an unfair trade advantage.
Naming stability as its top priority, Beijing argues that its debt-loaded, fragile financial system must be insulated from exchange rate shocks.
"It's not an ideological or political thing. The arithmetic says it's not in China's interest to do it," said Overholt.
Regulators have vowed to eventually set flexible foreign exchange policies and have been gradually lifting restrictions on foreign exchange dealings by individuals and companies.
But as for actually revaluing the yuan, state media recently quoted Premier Wen Jiabao as saying, "To be honest, the more speculations there are, the less chance we will act."
Though some foreign governments may not be getting the concessions they want, foreign companies are beginning to see real profits after two decades and some $555 billion in investment. Few are pushing for potentially disruptive changes in the currency regime.
U.S. companies reported more than $8 billion in profits inside mainland China in 2003, according to a recent survey by the China Economic Quarterly .
And China's growth is spilling over in other ways: the country's No. 1 computer maker, Lenovo Group (0992.HK), has just bought International Business Machine Corp.'s (IBM) PC business, and more overseas acquisitions are expected to follow.
The last time China's leadership engineered an economic slowdown, almost a decade ago, such a deal would have been almost unthinkable. Back then, city dwellers worked for state companies, prices were government-set and private housing was almost unknown.
By now, countless state enterprises have been merged, shut down or privatized. Though unemployment remains perilously high, millions of laid off workers have found jobs working in the private sector, service industries or foreign-funded companies. And millions of urban Chinese own their homes.
"The whole structure of the economy is completely different now," Rothman said.
中国经济仍行驶在快车道
有些经济学家认为，中国经济正在“软著陆”，但也有一些人说，根本就没著陆。
中国政府预计，今年经济增长率至少将达到9%，而且许多人预测，明年的增幅也只会略低于这个数字。中国最繁华最时尚的商业之都上海的增长速度更快。据估计，今年它将连续第13年实现两位数增长。
中国政府为抑制经济增长过热、实现可持续发展而采取了一系列措施，如上调利率等。但在贸易、投资和国内支出的强劲势头推动下，中国仍然会是一台马力强劲的经济增长发动机。
里昂证券新兴市场(CLSA Emerging Market)驻上海的中国市场策略师罗福万(Andy Rothman)说，这种情况就是他们所谓的“未著陆”。虽然增速有所放慢，但仍属于高速。
富裕起来的中国人在电脑、娱乐和服装、旅游方面的开支越来越多。
AC尼尔森(AC Nielsen)最近的消费信心调查显示，在调查涉及的28个国家中，中国消费者最为乐观，有78%的受访者相信明年经济会更好。
由于中国经济的增长势头明显超过政府希望的速度，政府已不再继续推行通过兴建基础设施等大型项目来创造就业的政策。除加息外，政府还号召各地采取节能措施，要求地方官员削减在没有实际意义的政绩工程以及不必要的工厂、道路和其他项目上的开支。
这些措施说明，虽然中国人对发展经济干劲十足，但由于能源、钢铁及其他资源短缺，且环境严重污染，中国经济的增长也面临著很多制约。
就像中国一句老话说的那样，天下没有不散的宴席。
目前，中国的钢铁消耗量已占到全球总产量的三分之一，水泥消耗量占40%，煤炭占三分之一。
夏季高温期间，严重的电力短缺迫使上海不得不限制许多摩天大厦的照明。铁路也出现了严重的运力不足。专家说，各地普遍出现的用水短缺进一步限制了工业增长。
中国官方媒体新华社在近期的一篇报导中提出，近年来中国经济增长前景一直很乐观，但它是否能保持下去？如果能，又会持续多久呢？报导进而指出，要实现中央提出的到2020年国内生产总值翻两番的目标，保证充足的能源供应将是一项“十分艰巨的工作”。
美国国际战略咨询机构兰德公司(Rand Corp.)亚洲政策部主席欧文霍特(Bill Overholt)说，中国只能放慢脚步。否则长期而言，后果将是灾难性的。
中国今年再次重申，提高数亿贫困农村人口的收入水平是政府的当务之急，这不仅对经济增长至关重要，而且关系到国家的政治稳定。
但北京的议事日程上似乎尚没有放松人民币管制的安排。中国目前对人民币仍然严格管制，在外汇交易中人民币对美元汇率只能在一个很小的区间波动。
但中国的外贸顺差已升至很高水平，11月份顺差额为99亿美元，这势必导致批评人士要求中国放宽人民币汇率的压力进一步加大。批评人士估计，人民币目前的汇率水平使中国出口商品价格较应有水平低40%，让中国制造商享受了不合理的竞争优势。
但中国政府认为，稳定压倒一切。它指出，中国金融系统目前债务负担沉重，难以承受任何风吹草动，当然也包括外汇制度改革可能带来的冲击。
欧文霍特说，实际上，这并非意识形态或政治范畴的事情。中国政府其实深知放开汇率在经济上对中国无益。
中国监管部门也承诺最终将实行灵活的外汇制度，并逐步取消对个人或企业的外汇交易限制。
但一谈到具体的人民币升值问题，用官方媒体援引的中国总理温家宝的话来讲，“坦率地说，投机活动越活跃，我们采取（调整汇率的）行动的可能性就越小。”
虽然一些外国政府可能难以看到中国在这个问题上让步，但经过20多年的发展，外国在华企业正在开始真正实现盈利，他们在中国的投资已达到5,550亿美元左右，这些企业不愿意看到人民币出现大的波动。
据《中国经济季刊》(China Economic Quarterly)最近公布的调查结果，2003年美国在华企业实现利润80亿美元。
中国经济增长的强劲势头也体现在其他方面。这个月，中国头号电脑制造商联想电脑(Lenovo Group., 0992.HK)收购了国际商业机器公司(International Business Machine Corp., IBM)的个人电脑业务。此外，预计很快还会达成其他的海外收购交易。
上一次中国领导人呼吁抑制经济过热大约是在10年前了。在那个时候，这样的交易几乎不可想象。当时，城市居民大多在国有企业上班，物价都是政府说了算，人们对所谓私有住房还不知为何物。
现在，有数不清的国有企业已经或合并或关闭，或进行了股份制改造。虽然失业率仍居高不下，但数百万下岗工人在私有企业、服务业甚至外资企业找到了工作。许多城市人口还拥有自己的住房。
罗福万说，现在中国的经济结构与10年前已经完全不同了。
